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DV-2015 winners from Asia with CN 10,000+

He know and understand the fact but he is acting like that. You can wake up the people who are really sleeping. BUT you can not wake up the people who are acting like sleep. :)

No he says he know everything - but then asks questions that show he hasn't even bothered to read the link! That is why he keeps saying stupid remarks. Because he is deliberately ignorant of the facts and explanations.
 
From your own words

"Asia is run by the rank number UNTIL NEPAL AND IRAN MAX OUT"

So that means once they max out asia will no longer be run by the rank number..

No - you are adding 2 + 2 and coming up with 5. Rank order would still count in normal months BUT given that we will be in the last month the rank order does not apply to cases within a month (i.e. for scheduling).
 
No he says he know everything - but then asks questions that show he hasn't even bothered to read the link! That is why he keeps saying stupid remarks. Because he is deliberately ignorant of the facts and explanations.


i have read your spats with each other and my 2 cents is all siliconeslinger just thinks they should be separated, Nepal and Iran..........i think he understand they have the most entries..........he just wants them separated that's all

and if i may speak freely, i feel that a lot of people have been really rude to the man without him really coming back with too many insults, and many people have made lots of insults to him........(the man never said he wants earthquakes for Nepal.........he just WONDERED if it would result in a higher CN that's all)

but it's just my 2 cents, the end is still the end.
 
i have read your spats with each other and my 2 cents is all siliconeslinger just thinks they should be separated, Nepal and Iran..........i think he understand they have the most entries..........he just wants them separated that's all

and if i may speak freely, i feel that a lot of people have been really rude to the man without him really coming back with too many insults, and many people have made lots of insults to him........(the man never said he wants earthquakes for Nepal.........he just WONDERED if it would result in a higher CN that's all)

but it's just my 2 cents, the end is still the end.

You don't think it is rude to ignore information that people try to give him, then post AWFUL messages expressing happiness and seeing opportunity when the earthquake happened. So please - I think you missed the history here. This forum has 99.9999% of people that get along in absolute harmony (unlike many places on the net). People such as SS cause friction in an otherwise happy place - so your assessment of the fault in that is out of touch with the reality.
 
i have read your spats with each other and my 2 cents is all siliconeslinger just thinks they should be separated, Nepal and Iran..........i think he understand they have the most entries..........he just wants them separated that's all

and if i may speak freely, i feel that a lot of people have been really rude to the man without him really coming back with too many insults, and many people have made lots of insults to him........(the man never said he wants earthquakes for Nepal.........he just WONDERED if it would result in a higher CN that's all)

but it's just my 2 cents, the end is still the end.

"... a lot of people have been really rude to the man without him really coming back with too many insults" - you must completely have been reading other postings. He had to be warned on several occasions, put on probation, what else...?

"... the end is still the end" - thank you God for that (just to balance the atheist thing..) :)
 
"... a lot of people have been really rude to the man without him really coming back with too many insults" - you must completely have been reading other postings. He had to be warned on several occasions, put on probation, what else...?

"... the end is still the end" - thank you God for that (just to balance the atheist thing..) :)

it's not about god i mean my chances have just been eliminated...........i was just waiting for confirmation of that so i can move on to other things instead of this constant waiting lol
good luck to all that are still in it :)
 
No - I think I pointed out that if Iran takes numbers in the 2500 to 3000 range that numbers from 10000 start to get risky. 12XXX needs Iran to take 2500 at very most.

Do I think a 5000 jump can happen in one month. It is technically possible, but as I have been explaining for some weeks now, there is a pace increase happening for Iran, which suggests AP cases being resolved at a fast rate. As those continue, the higher AS numbers start looking riskier and riskier.


i know you only do this on your own time so don't take this the wrong way, but lots of people have come to trust your expertise and you have given conflicting answers, in your asia estimate post, you don't say what you're saying now ...........but thank you for all your hard work i really think it's admirable :) i personally would never have done this if i had gotten my green card, to go to this much trouble to anaylze the data
 
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i have read your spats with each other and my 2 cents is all siliconeslinger just thinks they should be separated, Nepal and Iran..........i think he understand they have the most entries..........he just wants them separated that's all

and if i may speak freely, i feel that a lot of people have been really rude to the man without him really coming back with too many insults, and many people have made lots of insults to him........(the man never said he wants earthquakes for Nepal.........he just WONDERED if it would result in a higher CN that's all)

but it's just my 2 cents, the end is still the end.

Have you actually read half of the hateful stuff he posted? Some of it got deleted by mods it was so bad.

He did actually say he was happy for the earthquakes because it might help him, by the way.
 
Have you actually read half of the hateful stuff he posted? Some of it got deleted by mods it was so bad.

i never saw him say he wants earthquakes for Nepal, just one post where wondered if this would mean higher CN............but it's a big leap to go from that to say that he wants people to die.............but mayb ei haven't read them all and you're right
 
i never saw him say he wants earthquakes for Nepal, just one post where wondered if this would mean higher CN............but it's a big leap to go from that to say that he wants people to die.............but mayb ei haven't read them all and you're right

Yes, you definitely have not read them all.
 
i know you only do this on your own time so don't take this the wrong way, but lots of people have come to trust your expertise and you have given conflicting answers, in your asia estimate post, you don't say what you're saying now ...........but thank you for all your hard work i really think it's admirable :) i personally would never have done this if i had gotten my green card, to go to this much trouble to anaylze the data

Hang on - I have to correct you there. Even though that article is about a month old, it still had accurate information.

  1. 1. You clearly haven't read that article right. In that article I pointed out these things.
  • That my numbers were based on 2700 for Iran but I warned that we could see up to 3000.
  • The Issued rate for ROA is maturing and I put out scenarios of 12850 at 140/1000 and 12000 at 150/1000.
  • I also said that cases in the 11XXX and 12XXX

So - you have chosen to believe the happy path - even though I warned it might not be that way. I made it clear that if the issued rate went above 150, the final goes down. If Iran takes 3000 instead of 2700 that would mean a 2000 decrease at 150/1000. The information was ALL there - and highlighted, you just chose to ignore it.
 
Hang on - I have to correct you there. Even though that article is about a month old, it still had accurate information.

  1. 1. You clearly haven't read that article right. In that article I pointed out these things.
  • That my numbers were based on 2700 for Iran but I warned that we could see up to 3000.
  • The Issued rate for ROA is maturing and I put out scenarios of 12850 at 140/1000 and 12000 at 150/1000.
  • I also said that cases in the 11XXX and 12XXX
So - you have chosen to believe the happy path - even though I warned it might not be that way. I made it clear that if the issued rate went above 150, the final goes down. If Iran takes 3000 instead of 2700 that would mean a 2000 decrease at 150/1000. The information was ALL there - and highlighted, you just chose to ignore it.


uhhhh no.......i didn't ignore anything........you just said 2500 for Iran is the max for 12xxx to make it.........the blog says 2700 and diff. scenarios for 12850............but i guess your comment wasn't as detailed as your blog and didn't mention the Issued rate, im fully aware of the diffferent scenarios

honestly, i made a point to be polite to you and to let you know i believe you're doing something good.........i may not have the knowledge about this process that you do, but condescension is really not necessary
 
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as the great randall said in the great movie clerks

"there really is nothing in life more exhilarating than pointing out the faults of others is there susie?"

I don't know what he said.

I know that I don't have mom's and Simon's reserves of patience with the posters who ask ask ask constantly for help and predictions and stuff and then gleefully jump on anything that isn't perfect, or who continually ask questions that have been answered countless times, etc.
 
i quoted what he said

ummm sorry, i quite admire your colourful imagination...........i only joined the forum about a week ago, i did not "constantly ask ask ask", and when i HAVE asked, i have done so politely and i did not "gleefully jump on anything that isn't perfect"..........i saw something that i didn't understand and asked about it in a polite way, and i made it clear that i didn't mean any offense each time

just because you have a group of regular people on this forum that you've known for years that will agree with everything you say no matter how ridiculous........doesn't make your comments any less ridiculous......

ive always been polite, i come for information because as i have already conceded, you know more than i do.........i ask sensible questions politely, i didn't come to have my intelligence insulted.

if somebody is this insecure that any question that even implies disagreement causes them to snap, then forget it, it doesn't matter if it's Timbuktoo or USA life will be a struggle regardless

and don't even bother with another petty reply

you and the rest of your buddies can send messages to each other about how correct you are and what idiots everybody that even implies disagreement with you is and feel great about yourselves...........u'll be happy to know that you're not going get another answer from me
 
Just for the record, i never got happy for nepalese deaths

My exact words were
"with this earthquake i hope the cn goes higher "

That's called being upfront and not hypocritical.
 
i quoted what he said

ummm sorry, i quite admire your colourful imagination...........i only joined the forum about a week ago, i did not "constantly ask ask ask", and when i HAVE asked, i have done so politely and i did not "gleefully jump on anything that isn't perfect"..........i saw something that i didn't understand and asked about it in a polite way, and i made it clear that i didn't mean any offense each time

just because you have a group of regular people on this forum that you've known for years that will agree with everything you say no matter how ridiculous........doesn't make your comments any less ridiculous......

ive always been polite, i come for information because as i have already conceded, you know more than i do.........i ask sensible questions politely, i didn't come to have my intelligence insulted.

if somebody is this insecure that any question that even implies disagreement causes them to snap, then forget it, it doesn't matter if it's Timbuktoo or USA life will be a struggle regardless

and don't even bother with another petty reply

you and the rest of your buddies can send messages to each other about how correct you are and what idiots everybody that even implies disagreement with you is and feel great about yourselves...........u'll be happy to know that you're not going get another answer from me
I think you way over reacted to a comment that wasn't even directed at you originally, and neither was my second response. They were generalized observations. Sensitive, much? As mom would say, for sheesh.
 
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