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DV 2015 Oceania winners

AussieGemma said:
We were current in Nov so CN less than 650 but don't have an interview date because we submitted our DS260 forms on 19 July. It seems they are allocating interviews based on DS260 submission which is good for those that submitted early. Having said all that, I cannot wait until the Jan interview notifications!
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Same! Trying not to obsess over it but I realllly hope we get a Jan interview.
 
Britsimon said:
Although I would not have been quite so direct as connectedspace, I would agree that your case number is probably too high. That being the case you should think about submitting your DS260. Returning that form shows immigrant intent which can complicate future temporary visa applications. Just something to consider.
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Chriso said:
Hey britsimon i do goto the states very regularly ive been maybe or 6 times now my passport is actually full of homeland sercurity stamps, your saying i shouldnt submit my ds-260 because it can complicate thing for future visas? thanks or the info btw.
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Hi Chriso, I am in a similar position to yourself and I agree with what Britsimon has said. I have been to the states a number of times and have had some lengthy stays in those visits (never over staying my visa of course) as I have friends and family there. My case number is 17XX and I have held off submitting my DS-260 as doing so will show intent, and I don't want that "intent" to be used by Customs to deny me entry on future visits / or visa applications. Since I have a high case number, I figured I had time to wait and see how fast the case numbers were being processed. If it looks like I'll have no chance, I'm not going to bother submitting it. Submitting the ds-260 doesn't automatically ban you from entering the states, you just have to show proof (job, investments, family etc) you do not intend to stay. However depending on the number of visits and length of those visits, it may be harder to convince the CBP officer that you don't intend on living in the states, if you have submitted your ds-260. You obviously know your own situation and determine whether your willing to submit it. Just give it some thought before you do it.
 
CBDK said:
I have a decent understanding now of the process after reading countless opinions about densities and ratios etc but I'm still unclear about why 2014 is seemingly the new normal. 2015 is only 3 VBs in and the numbers are tracking really well, much better than 2014. I know 2015 is oversubscribed but much less oversubscribed as 2014.
I can't help but think KCC were simply experimenting in 2014 and got it very wrong. This year they have adjusted and will see how it goes. At this stage whilst I don't think OC will go current, why is everyone so sure >1700 is looking bad? At nearly half way already what's stopping then continuing at this pace?
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CBDK, I'm with you on this question. Maybe its my lack of understanding on the process, however I don't understand why so early on, when the VB is tracking well (although Jan slowed), that people think 2015 will be like 2014? Its never happened before (from the years I've look at), so I'm not sure why people think this. In 2014 I believe they selected 140,000 people for further process, whereas for 2015 it was back to 125,000, which would suggest its not as over subscribed as last year.

Also does anyone know where you can find the number of actual selectees (not including the derivatives), or is it not released? I've searched everywhere but after reading the forum for hours, I realised the numbers I have appear to include derivatives.
 
Zarab, losing Nigeria basically accounts for the entire difference in selectee numbers. Before last year, selectee numbers were usually around 100k or less so they are still high vs history.

When you say "it's never happened before", it's not clear to me what you are referring to? If you mean cutoffs at year end because of the quota being reached/visas oversubscribed, it happened regularly before the financial crisis - and again that was with around 25% fewer selectees than now - and even though those years included two high fraud and high rejection countries (Nigeria and Bangladesh).

If you look at the "dv statistics" part of the travel.state.gov site I seem to recall there is a sheet that breaks down selectees between principal and derivatives. Though it's academic from the point of view of a selectee surely - a visa gone is a visa gone' no matter whether to a principal or a derivative.
 
Thanks Susie, I forgot about losing Nigeria, I see your point now. And yes I was referring to the cut offs at year end, I was only looking at ones since 2006 I think, I didn't have earlier ones. I'll have a look for those statistics, although it probably won't help other than to satisfy my curiosity. You're absolutely right, a visa gone is a visa gone. I'm going to try and give up trying to figure this out, and just wait and see how the numbers go over the next few months and decide then whether I will apply.
 
zarab said:
Thanks Susie, I forgot about losing Nigeria, I see your point now. And yes I was referring to the cut offs at year end, I was only looking at ones since 2006 I think, I didn't have earlier ones. I'll have a look for those statistics, although it probably won't help other than to satisfy my curiosity. You're absolutely right, a visa gone is a visa gone. I'm going to try and give up trying to figure this out, and just wait and see how the numbers go over the next few months and decide then whether I will apply.
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I think you are playing your hand as best you can. You will need to consider the "non backlog" time of DS260 processing, but you will also want to avoid the DV2016 rush. So your latest trigger point will probably end up around mid April (mid May could get ruined by DV2016. So if the mid April number (June interviews) is already over 1300/1400, you might want to submit your DS260.
 
Are they still scheduling DV interviews for Tuesdays in the second week of the month?

I thought of this this afternoon; last year Veterans Day (Nov. 11) was the day before my interview and fell on a Monday, but since the 11th is a Tuesday this year I was curious as to whether the holiday impacts embassy scheduling.

Good luck to anyone who's up this week - I can't believe it's been a year since I got the green light.
 
Crawf33 said:
Are they still scheduling DV interviews for Tuesdays in the second week of the month?

I thought of this this afternoon; last year Veterans Day (Nov. 11) was the day before my interview and fell on a Monday, but since the 11th is a Tuesday this year I was curious as to whether the holiday impacts embassy scheduling.

Good luck to anyone who's up this week - I can't believe it's been a year since I got the green light.
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It looks like people have them on various Tuesdays of the month, not just the second week, this year. According to the embassy website, Nov 11 is a public holiday and they are closed.
 
Crawf33 said:
Are they still scheduling DV interviews for Tuesdays in the second week of the month?

I thought of this this afternoon; last year Veterans Day (Nov. 11) was the day before my interview and fell on a Monday, but since the 11th is a Tuesday this year I was curious as to whether the holiday impacts embassy scheduling.

Good luck to anyone who's up this week - I can't believe it's been a year since I got the green light.
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.. Happy One Year!! :)
 
Crawf33 said:
Are they still scheduling DV interviews for Tuesdays in the second week of the month?

I thought of this this afternoon; last year Veterans Day (Nov. 11) was the day before my interview and fell on a Monday, but since the 11th is a Tuesday this year I was curious as to whether the holiday impacts embassy scheduling.

Good luck to anyone who's up this week - I can't believe it's been a year since I got the green light.
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I think there are more Tuesdays than just the second Tuesday in the month... but yep - the probably did not schedule for tomorrow.
 
Britsimon said:
I think there are more Tuesdays than just the second Tuesday in the month... but yep - the probably did not schedule for tomorrow.
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Duly noted! It's interesting how much things appear to have changed from last year's lottery to this year's.

SuicideBlonde said:
.. Happy One Year!! :)
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Thanks!

To "celebrate," I finally aggregated a few of the reader questions I received on the blog and through this forum. Thanks for the help @AussieGemma (and others who commented and may be from here!)

http://crawfinusa.com/2014/11/10/reader-questions-iii-anniversary-edition/
 
Hey Guys, just a quick update - my spouse just received his GC exactly a month after POE.

Full timeline:
CN - 2015OC000003xx
2 Oct (NZ): Interview (success!) Auckland
7 Oct (NZ): Passport with Visa arrived by Courier
10 Oct (US): LAX POE
31 Oct (US): Applied for SSN in person at Brooklyn SSN office (he did request one on his DS260 but after three weeks we were feeling impatient...)
5 Nov (US): SSN arrives
10 Nov (US): Green Card arrives

EmilyW - feel free to update your spreadsheet with his details :)
 
chch_james said:
Hey Guys, just a quick update - my spouse just received his GC exactly a month after POE.

Full timeline:
CN - 2015OC000003xx
2 Oct (NZ): Interview (success!) Auckland
7 Oct (NZ): Passport with Visa arrived by Courier
10 Oct (US): LAX POE
31 Oct (US): Applied for SSN in person at Brooklyn SSN office (he did request one on his DS260 but after three weeks we were feeling impatient...)
5 Nov (US): SSN arrives
10 Nov (US): Green Card arrives

EmilyW - feel free to update your spreadsheet with his details :)
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Wow - that all went really fast!
 
nzangeleyes said:
Hey OC_EMS thanks for sharing your checklist and interview details in previous posts. I was wondering how many weeks out from your interview date did you receive your confirmation and checklist email. I'm a little concerned as my interview is scheduled for the 9th of December but have not yet received any correspondence from Sydney. Should I be expecting something?

Does anyone know if the Sydney consulate send a interview confirmation email or is the only notification received regarding interview details the 2NL via the ESC website?

I have emailed Sydney twice but have had no response. They must be busy.
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Hi nzangeleyes, Essey is correct. The only reason I got the email with the list was because I emailed them with Q's. I mention my interview date which is perhaps why they responded very quickly. (same day)

As it stands I dont believe you will receive any further confirmation from the SYD consulate. The only real confirmation was in the form of the 2nl directing you to log in and PRINT out your interview time and location.

Ozimatt mentioned that he received the checklist at the consulate on the day of his interview. Apparently they were meant to be emailed out but it appears not to be the case thus far. So whether you print the one I posted (which is exactly what they would have emailed you) or wait till you are at your interview is up to you. Either way it needs to be done. I very much doubt we will receive any further correspondence.

Sooooooooo sit back, relax a little, have a big ar$% cup of coffee and just plod on with preparing. It sounds like you have all you need. :D
 
chch_james said:
Hey Guys, just a quick update - my spouse just received his GC exactly a month after POE.

Full timeline:
CN - 2015OC000003xx
2 Oct (NZ): Interview (success!) Auckland
7 Oct (NZ): Passport with Visa arrived by Courier
10 Oct (US): LAX POE
31 Oct (US): Applied for SSN in person at Brooklyn SSN office (he did request one on his DS260 but after three weeks we were feeling impatient...)
5 Nov (US): SSN arrives
10 Nov (US): Green Card arrives

EmilyW - feel free to update your spreadsheet with his details :)
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Jeeeeeeeezus. Eight days between interview and flying is cutting it close. I thought mine was hair-raising at 12 days!
 
OC_EMS said:
Hi nzangeleyes, Essey is correct. The only reason I got the email with the list was because I emailed them with Q's. I mention my interview date which is perhaps why they responded very quickly. (same day)

As it stands I dont believe you will receive any further confirmation from the SYD consulate. The only real confirmation was in the form of the 2nl directing you to log in and PRINT out your interview time and location.

Ozimatt mentioned that he received the checklist at the consulate on the day of his interview. Apparently they were meant to be emailed out but it appears not to be the case thus far. So whether you print the one I posted (which is exactly what they would have emailed you) or wait till you are at your interview is up to you. Either way it needs to be done. I very much doubt we will receive any further correspondence.

Sooooooooo sit back, relax a little, have a big ar$% cup of coffee and just plod on with preparing. It sounds like you have all you need. :D
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Thanks OC_EMS and Essey. = )
 
zarab said:
CBDK, I'm with you on this question. Maybe its my lack of understanding on the process, however I don't understand why so early on, when the VB is tracking well (although Jan slowed), that people think 2015 will be like 2014? Its never happened before (from the years I've look at), so I'm not sure why people think this. In 2014 I believe they selected 140,000 people for further process, whereas for 2015 it was back to 125,000, which would suggest its not as over subscribed as last year.

Also does anyone know where you can find the number of actual selectees (not including the derivatives), or is it not released? I've searched everywhere but after reading the forum for hours, I realised the numbers I have appear to include derivatives.
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Further to what Susie has said, it's about density. The density of issuance last year was such that the OC visa quota ran out at CN=1448.

There is no reason to believe the density has or will go down: the US is becoming a more attractive place to live. We get a higher quota this year, but not much higher, so this year's max CN will go up a little.
 
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