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DV 2015 Oceania winners

Wow. Looking at that number for December my number should go current in Feb and then its my prediction OC will go current mid year according to past years. I am hopeful for all you high numbered OCers :p
 
Deb7a said:
Wow. Looking at that number for December my number should go current in Feb and then its my prediction OC will go current mid year according to past years. I am hopeful for all you high numbered OCers :p
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As much as I would love to think Oceania will go current I have given up on 2015 and made other plans, I think I am selected in last 50-100 so give myself maybe 1 or 2% chance of being called up. Oceania would need a huge dramatic increase in visas to get all the way up to OC2250 which I think is about as high as it goes.
 
Deb7a said:
Wow. Looking at that number for December my number should go current in Feb and then its my prediction OC will go current mid year according to past years. I am hopeful for all you high numbered OCers :p
Click to expand...


Well good luck to you with your number you might even go current in January. However, I really don't think it is realistic to believe OC will go current by year end....
 
Deb7a said:
Wow. Looking aha number for December my number sh. Ald go current in Feb and then its my prediction OC will go current mid year according to past years. I am hopeful for all you high numbered OCers :p
Click to expand...
Codyf21 said:
As much as I would love to think Oceania will go current I have given up on 2015 and made other plans, I think I am selected in last 50-100 so give myself maybe 1 or 2% chance of being called up. Oceania would need a huge dramatic increase in visas to get all the way up to OC2250 which I think is about as high as it goes.
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2366244, member: 362513"]As much as I would love to think Oceania will go current I have given up on 2015 and made other plans, I think I am selected in last 50-100 so give myself maybe 1 or 2% chance of being called up. Oceania would need a huge dramatic increase in visas to get all the way up to OC2250 which I think is about as h
Britsimon said:
Well good luck to you with your number you might even go current in January. However, I really don't think it is realistic to believe OC will go current by year end....
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I only say that because I went back to 2002 and the only year it didnt go current was last year And that was an unusual year
 
Deb7a said:
2366244, member: 362513"]
I only say that because I went back to 2002 and the only year it didnt go current was last year And that was an unusual year
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Yes, last year was unusual before last year happened - and the reason no region went current is well understood and was predictable (indeed, we predicted it a year ago when no one had seen a year where at least some regions had gone current.

The simple explanation is that there are too many "winners". There were 140k in DV2014 and 125k in DV2015. The other years you looked at had around 100k and demand for the visas increased (meaning they didn't even need the 100k last year).

If you want to look at it from an OC point of view, DV2014 had double the normal number of winners (4k instead of 2k). However, they actually only got to less than half the selectees, again meaning the 2k would have been more than enough. DV2015 has 3500 selectees. That is around 1000 (optimistically) to 1500 more than they need - hence current is not a possibility.

It sucks, but there it is.....
 
[QUOT="Deb7a,. ost: 2366250, member: 364287"]2366244, member: 362513"]As much as I would love to think Oceania will go current I have given up on 2015 and made other plans, I think I am selected in last 50-100 so give myself maybe 1 or 2% chance of being called up. Oceania would need a huge dramatic increase in visas to get all the way up to OC2250 which I think is about as h

I only say that because I went back to 2002 and the only year it didnt go current was last year And that was an unusual year[/QUOTE]
And thanks btw
Britsimon said:
Yes, last year was unusual before last year happened - and the reason no region went current is well understood and was predictable (indeed, we predicted it a year ago when no one had seen a year where at least some regions had gone current.

The simple explanation is that there are too many "winners". There were 140k in DV2014 and 125k in DV2015. The other years you looked at had around 100k and demand for the visas increased (meaning they didn't even need the 100k last year).

If you want to look at it from an OC point of view, DV2014 had double the normal number of winners (4k instead of 2k). However, they actually only got to less than half the selectees, again meaning the 2k would have been more than enough. DV2015 has 3500 selectees. That is around 1000 (optimistically) to 1500 more than they need - hence current is not a possibility.

It sucks, but there it is.....
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Yeah it does. But it would be good if it did. I guess each year stands alone and you cant compare as too many variables.
 
Wow they're full steam ahead this year! It seems like such a change from last year's pitiful increases. Hopefully it continues.
 
Essey said:
Wow they're full steam ahead this year! It seems like such a change from last year's pitiful increases. Hopefully it continues.
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Yes it doesn't take too many extra visas to make a significant impact on our region.

I wonder also if the density is a little lower this year than last.
 
I'm at work so can't update the spreadsheet for another couple of hours.

But it is heartening. December 2013 was 450. December 2014 will be 650.

Congrats Kiwione. As you NZers say, that's choice bro.
 
No need to be patient now EMS! I checked at 5am this morning then again later and it was there!!

Woohoo we are current, so exciting and hopefully we get that December interview!! I really hope the trend continues so many more people can go current.
 
Alrighty - spreadsheet updated. Super exciting for our new currents!

At this rate, my family might be interviewing in March. Excited does not even begin to adequately describe.

Also, do children need to have blood tests at the medical?
 
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Spreadsheet looks great thanks again Emily.

Regarding interview dates in December, any idea when it could be? There are some interviews for Oct & Nov that are the 28th but I doubt they would do December then.
 
That's good, kids only really have blood tests if there is a good reason. Just make sure you have your immunisation record and they have had all their shots. I'll walk to the doctor next week and ask them, I work not far from them in Melbourne so hopefully they will tell me.

I hope the interviews are early in Dec so the kids get to finish the school year. We are planning on a mini holiday from Melb to Canberra, Sydney and back down the coast.
 
Even if we get a March interview, we would only want to travel in June to activate and then make a permanent move later in the year after the kids are done with school.
 
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