DV 2015 Oceania winners

[Codyf21]

Just cause I am bored and no one has made a comment in a while, I just wanted to get everyone's thoughts on what went on with DV2014 for Oceania, and if the fact that it closed so low if it will have any impact on DV2015, what do we think they will cut off the numbers for November will be? Just trying to get some conversation going and hearing from the DV experts

 

[CBDK]

Just cause I am bored and no one has made a comment in a while, I just wanted to get everyone's thoughts on what went on with DV2014 for Oceania, and if the fact that it closed so low if it will have any impact on DV2015, what do we think they will cut off the numbers for November will be? Just trying to get some conversation going and hearing from the DV experts

Despite reading every thread I could get my hands re: 2014, I don't understand what happened in with that DV. Maybe they tried something new and experiment and it just went wrong...or maybe it was just a major stuff up!
No idea what the November numbers will be but I like day dreaming about it and I'm dreaming of an increase of 150!

 

[Codyf21]

Despite reading every thread I could get my hands re: 2014, I don't understand what happened in with that DV. Maybe they tried something new and experiment and it just went wrong...or maybe it was just a major stuff up!
No idea what the November numbers will be but I like day dreaming about it and I'm dreaming of an increase of 150!

I am sure there was more to it than thinking if we select 4000 people then we will achieve our main objective of allocating all visas, but I am sure the KCC don't want endless phone calls from those who get no interview, the jump from 105k selected to 140k in 2014 and back down to 125k for 2015 shows them trying to correct it I just hope Oceania gets some additional visas to get it back current. I think a jump of 150 would be great, 200 even better.

 

[Hope 77]

Hiii everyone this is CN 172x from Fiji..studied the VB archives from 2008 to 2014....increase as follows
Oct - Nov
2008 - 300 - 500
2009 - 200 - 325
2010 - 375 - 475
2011 - 350 - 650
2012 - 300 - 500
2013 - 250 - 400
2014 - 300 - 375
2015 - 400 - betting on 650

 

[Kiwione]

woah, a jump of 300 in 2011. 650 cut off for November would be awesome

 

[CBDK]

Hiii everyone this is CN 172x from Fiji..studied the VB archives from 2008 to 2014....increase as follows
Oct - Nov
2008 - 300 - 500
2009 - 200 - 325
2010 - 375 - 475
2011 - 350 - 650
2012 - 300 - 500
2013 - 250 - 400
2014 - 300 - 375
2015 - 400 - betting on 650

Thanks for making it easy to see the historical jumps. I'd be happy with 650! Only 20 days or so (give or take) til we find out for sure

 

[Britsimon]

I am sure there was more to it than thinking if we select 4000 people then we will achieve our main objective of allocating all visas, but I am sure the KCC don't want endless phone calls from those who get no interview, the jump from 105k selected to 140k in 2014 and back down to 125k for 2015 shows them trying to correct it I just hope Oceania gets some additional visas to get it back current. I think a jump of 150 would be great, 200 even better.

2014 was a stuff up. 140k globally was way to many and 4k for OC was crazy. Unfortunately 125k and 3500 in 2015 is another stuff up in the making. Still too many globally and MUCH more than needed for OC. Forget current - that won't happen.

 

[Codyf21]

2014 was a stuff up. 140k globally was way to many and 4k for OC was crazy. Unfortunately 125k and 3500 in 2015 is another stuff up in the making. Still too many globally and MUCH more than needed for OC. Forget current - that won't happen.

Do you think their over selection for all regions is purely to ensure 100% of visas are used? It seems like up to DV2014 it wasn't broken (aside from the 2012 screw up) so don't get the jump from 105k to 140k back to 125k, I guess for dv2016 if they reduce the selection further it might show it was a experiment that caused more pain than good, or they might be achieving their goal set down to allocate all visas.

 

[Britsimon]

Do you think their over selection for all regions is purely to ensure 100% of visas are used? It seems like up to DV2014 it wasn't broken (aside from the 2012 screw up) so don't get the jump from 105k to 140k back to 125k, I guess for dv2016 if they reduce the selection further it might show it was a experiment that caused more pain than good, or they might be achieving their goal set down to allocate all visas.

We don't really know why they did this. One thing it has revealed is the previously "skewed" quotas. We were basing our maths thinking that previous years visas issued splits between regions was the desired quota. It wasn't. It was just the result when they managed to fill all demand and then allowed some regions to use the underused quota from EU. Having more than enough has revealed what they really wanted to be the final quota split between regions.

I do think there is still a lack of understanding in DoS/USCIS of what the heck is going on. The 140/125 reduction is NOT as big a reduction as it sounds - because it can almost entirely be accounted for by the country limit having changed (6k down to 5k) and Nigeria being out. So, they have stuffed up 2015 also. Will they fix it by 2016? I'm not sure....

 

[Codyf21]

I understand the reason to over select for those who don't pursue it and those that don't meet the criteria, but it seems very much a lottery within a lottery, you get those with low case numbers who choose not to pursue it, and those with high case numbers who would love to pursue it but miss out. For something as difficult and desirable as a Green Card it seems a bit hit or miss. It really is frustrating that a country like Moldova gets issued more green cards than the total of the Oceania region, but with something like this I guess its never going to be fair.

 

[Britsimon]

I understand the reason to over select for those who don't pursue it and those that don't meet the criteria, but it seems very much a lottery within a lottery, you get those with low case numbers who choose not to pursue it, and those with high case numbers who would love to pursue it but miss out. For something as difficult and desirable as a Green Card it seems a bit hit or miss. It really is frustrating that a country like Moldova gets issued more green cards than the total of the Oceania region, but with something like this I guess its never going to be fair.

Well don't forget that the Moldova selectees had a much lower chance of winning in the first place - an OC entrant has around 1 in 20 chance of being selected. For entrants in some countries that number is more like 1 in 250. Then there are the relative costs of completing the process which stops many from processing their win. Then there is the golden ticket E3 visa that only Australians can get with an unbelievably simple process as a backup plan for many OC winners.

Sorry mate - not trying to argue, just pointing out that OC gets way more "unfair" breaks than you are considering.

 

[Codyf21]

Well don't forget that the Moldova selectees had a much lower chance of winning in the first place - an OC entrant has around 1 in 20 chance of being selected. For entrants in some countries that number is more like 1 in 250. Then there are the relative costs of completing the process which stops many from processing their win. Then there is the golden ticket E3 visa that only Australians can get with an unbelievably simple process as a backup plan for many OC winners.

Sorry mate - not trying to argue, just pointing out that OC gets way more "unfair" breaks than you are considering.

E3 is a great visa for Australians, and we also have the J visa for those who complete a degree as well I guess. I was shocked that both myself and my partner got selected this year but both got crazy high case numbers, thankfully understanding the full process now and seeing the disaster of Dv2014 we know that there isn't really much point planning or pursuing a move so have back up plans. I wonder how many calls the KCC got from all over the world from those who's case numbers didn't get selected.

 

[Britsimon]

E3 is a great visa for Australians, and we also have the J visa for those who complete a degree as well I guess. I was shocked that both myself and my partner got selected this year but both got crazy high case numbers, thankfully understanding the full process now and seeing the disaster of Dv2014 we know that there isn't really much point planning or pursuing a move so have back up plans. I wonder how many calls the KCC got from all over the world from those who's case numbers didn't get selected.

So yeah, you and your partner prove the point. I think the chances of winning in 2014 and 2015 were VERY VERY high for OC. I don't think the doubling of selectees was matched by a doubling of entrants - so the 6% winning chance in 2013 was probably higher than 10% in 2014 and 9 or 10% in 2015 - but then of course as you say, you need a low number.

It's a good point about the calls that KCC get - that might eventually get the message through....

 

[Codyf21]

So yeah, you and your partner prove the point. I think the chances of winning in 2014 and 2015 were VERY VERY high for OC. I don't think the doubling of selectees was matched by a doubling of entrants - so the 6% winning chance in 2013 was probably higher than 10% in 2014 and 9 or 10% in 2015 - but then of course as you say, you need a low number.

It's a good point about the calls that KCC get - that might eventually get the message through....

OH well, at least we got some conversation going again, its gone a bit dead in here for a few days. I do hope we hear about DV2016 dates soon. Anyone got John Kerry's number handy? Could give him a call about getting Oceania current for November

 

[Codyf21]

So yeah, you and your partner prove the point. I think the chances of winning in 2014 and 2015 were VERY VERY high for OC. I don't think the doubling of selectees was matched by a doubling of entrants - so the 6% winning chance in 2013 was probably higher than 10% in 2014 and 9 or 10% in 2015 - but then of course as you say, you need a low number.

It's a good point about the calls that KCC get - that might eventually get the message through....

Here is a question, if you want to stay in America for between 6-12months and have a B Visa can you apply to extend your stay before you enter. Reason being I am thinking if I don't get a Green Card ill just go over anyway and use the money saved for some time off and maybe explore other options over there.

 

[Sm1smom]

Here is a question, if you want to stay in America for between 6-12months and have a B Visa can you apply to extend your stay before you enter. Reason being I am thinking if I don't get a Green Card ill just go over anyway and use the money saved for some time off and maybe explore other options over there.

You cannot apply to extend your stay BEFORE you enter, you will need to enter first and be granted the stay. The maximum duration of stay a B1/B2 visa allows at any one time period is 6 months.

 

[Codyf21]

You cannot apply to extend your stay BEFORE you enter, you will need to enter first and be granted the stay. The maximum duration of stay a B1/B2 visa allows at any one time period is 6 months.

Thanks for this, I thought I read ages ago that it could be extended for up to 1 year maximum?

 

[connectedspace]

There are really two factors for estimating this year: OC's issue rate (visas per CN) and its visa quota.

For the first, I'd go by the 2014 rate, which we'll know for sure in October once all the dust settles. We won't know the visa quota until the end of the 2015 season, though we can roughly estimate it'll be the same as 2014's, with an extra 50 from Nigeria.

What Simon said is correct: we can expect 2015 to play out roughly as 2014 has, but with Nigeria's visas spread over the rest of the world.

400 is a very encouraging start, but months of stagnation have a strong precedent. I'm just trying to take my mind off things and wait for the next VB.

 

[Sm1smom]

Thanks for this, I thought I read ages ago that it could be extended for up to 1 year maximum?

No doubt someone already in the US can apply to have their B1/B2 visa extended, but there's no guarantee it will be approved.

 

[Essey]

I'd be VERY surprised if November's VB was 650. I'm thinking it will be more around the 500 mark based on recent years. But then again... WHO knows. They do have a knack for keeping us on our toes.