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DV 2015 Oceania winners

I always thought the Fiji factor was meeting the requirement not to be a public charge. From what I've read, many of the cases get knocked back because they can't prove they can support themselves.
 
I'd remove the digits after the nine, mate. Hopefully one of the mods will come and fix it if you don't read this message.

You will only get an interview once your case goes 'current' which means there is a visa available to you.

At the moment, we are at OC775 so you are not yet current. It's likely to be an April or May interview I think (I'm in the same boat as a 9xx).
 
AussieGemma said:
I would call them. I've called a few times and they have been very helpful. Just enter 'zero' rather than waiting to hear all the info when you first get through. The last call only cost about $2 from my mobile which was far less then what I expected. Hopefully you get some answers soon.
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This is the Sydney Consulate, not KCC. As far as I can tell, cou can't call the consulate about these things. As my passport is with Sydney, I don't think KCC is not going to be of any assistance as the individual visa processing is a matter for the consulates.
 
CBDK said:
Thanks for this - really interesting. I have a couple of questions...can you tell the difference between genuine 'holes' and those cases who never followed up on their application? Does this data allow for a comfortable prediction for what might happen in the Feb bulletin for OC?
Also, there are a lot of people from SUV (Fiji?) getting refused. I remember reading something about a 'Fiji' factor but can't find it again...is there a Fiji factor?
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Since we have all the cases regardless of whether the forms were sent in, we can be very precise about the holes. I have shown how below. By subtracting the
cases from the highest case number everything else must be holes (or cases not revealed yet - there may be a few). Using my estimate percentages from the density charts, you can also get an estimated split between those holes that were immediately disqualified for duplicate entries etc as opposed to the holes created when countries with high number of entries were limited. All that shown below....holes.jpg see they disqualified more
 
@Britsimon what would we do without you? I for one am really glad you can figure all this stuff out and fill us all in! Any Feb VB predictions? We should find out in the next week or so anyway...
 
Essey said:
This is the Sydney Consulate, not KCC. As far as I can tell, cou can't call the consulate about these things. As my passport is with Sydney, I don't think KCC is not going to be of any assistance as the individual visa processing is a matter for the consulates.
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Sorry, disregard my advice. I just assumed everything would be centrally controlled/monitored through KCC. I wasn't aware that we could contact US Embassy in Sydney.
 
CBDK said:
@Britsimon what would we do without you? I for one am really glad you can figure all this stuff out and fill us all in! Any Feb VB predictions? We should find out in the next week or so anyway...
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By the way - there is no Fiji factor. Check my league table and you can see that Fiji gets a higher percentage issued than Sydney and only slightly less than Auckland.
 
But the refusal rate is higher in Fiji?

As a statistician, I am trying to figure out how that works. This task would have been made easier had I not started an evening of easy drinking an hour ago.
 
guestgulkan said:
Ohh now we can see the holes and non-responders plus we also have DV4Roger's regional quotas. So much more information than last year.

My number is borderline.. is there a thread for CN maths boffins this year?

I'm going to take a shot at guessing the high CN for OC.
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******Caution*****
This is just a prediction - I can't be certain of these numbers....


Hmmmm - I have taken a flyer at the final number prediction. OC is easier than the big three regions so I think we have the information to get a pretty good guess.

I'm taking DV4Rogers quota (at 52.5k globally) which is 834 for OC.
Using the splits in selectees to guess the distribution of the selectees we can divide that quota among the countries (applying the local issued rate for the three big consulates from the 2014 league table). That looks like the numbers below. I did that per country and then applied the same process to the region using the average success rate.

This isn't a perfect way to do this - but it gets us close.

ocprediction.jpg

So - that seems to suggest 1440 would be the max case number. This does not factor in the DS260 fiasco and all sorts of other things which might increase the number a bit, but I think this is in the ballpark.

Again - I don't suggest someone above this number just gives up, because a lot can happen between now and October...
 
EmilyW said:
But the refusal rate is higher in Fiji?

As a statistician, I am trying to figure out how that works. This task would have been made easier had I not started an evening of easy drinking an hour ago.
Click to expand...

I guess it depends on how you look at it. My league table shows four percentages. Refusals, AP, Ready and Issued. Yes Fiji has a high refusal rate - but has a very low ready and AP rate compared to Sydney. It's like saying the Fiji applicants go for the interview regardless of being underqualified whereas the Aussies decide they aren't qualified and don't bother turning up. The net result is that Fiji selectees are more likely to get approved, not less.

I'm a glass half full kinda guy....
 
Britsimon said:
Since we have all the cases regardless of whether the forms were sent in, we can be very precise about the holes. I have shown how below. By subtracting the
cases from the highest case number everything else must be holes (or cases not revealed yet - there may be a few). Using my estimate percentages from the density charts, you can also get an estimated split between those holes that were immediately disqualified for duplicate entries etc as opposed to the holes created when countries with high number of entries were limited. All that shown below....View attachment 338 see they disqualified more
Click to expand...

Thanks for your help.

Maybe you can help me with something else quickly? I started doing the OC calculations and got a very high number ~2000+ which is too high. I used the first 1-400 CNs for an "issued" ratio (since that was the first cutoff) then multiplied by the CNs remaining. Big number. Obviously many of the "Ready" status will convert into "Issued" later but it still doesn't explain the difference.

The problem for me is there are just less family members this year:
  • DV2014 1-400 CNs had 273 family members
  • DV2015 1-400 CNs have 206 family members
That's a big drop-off since last year.

Do you think this indicates a much lower response rate and thus much higher Max CN?
 
guestgulkan said:
Thanks for your help.

Maybe you can help me with something else quickly? I started doing the OC calculations and got a very high number ~2000+ which is too high. I used the first 1-400 CNs for an "issued" ratio (since that was the first cutoff) then multiplied by the CNs remaining. Big number. Obviously many of the "Ready" status will convert into "Issued" later but it still doesn't explain the difference.

The problem for me is there are just less family members this year:
  • DV2014 1-400 CNs had 273 family members
  • DV2015 1-400 CNs have 206 family members
That's a big drop-off since last year.

Do you think this indicates a much lower response rate and thus much higher Max CN?
Click to expand...

No, I would say the difference is you are looking at fully matured 2014 numbers versus DS260 impacted cases this year. So - among those early cases there are some that are still waiting to be processed then scheduled - that will be the missing people.
 
This hurts my head a bit. I'm calling upon my tried and tested method of talking to the universe and asking for a jump of 175 in Feb so myself and a large chunk of OCers can go current. I'll go and do that now...:confused:
 
Essey said:
This is the Sydney Consulate, not KCC. As far as I can tell, cou can't call the consulate about these things. As my passport is with Sydney, I don't think KCC is not going to be of any assistance as the individual visa processing is a matter for the consulates.
Click to expand...

The Auckland consulate was really up front about not hesitating to call them whenever I needed help. I received a phone number with my 2NL and the lady who dealt with immigration visas would answer my questions every time I called (probably 5 or 6 times in total). There's gotta be someone at the Sydney consulate who you can talk to.
 
Britsimon said:
******Caution*****
This is just a prediction - I can't be certain of these numbers....


Hmmmm - I have taken a flyer at the final number prediction. OC is easier than the big three regions so I think we have the information to get a pretty good guess.

I'm taking DV4Rogers quota (at 52.5k globally) which is 834 for OC.
Using the splits in selectees to guess the distribution of the selectees we can divide that quota among the countries (applying the local issued rate for the three big consulates from the 2014 league table). That looks like the numbers below. I did that per country and then applied the same process to the region using the average success rate.

This isn't a perfect way to do this - but it gets us close.

View attachment 339

So - that seems to suggest 1440 would be the max case number. This does not factor in the DS260 fiasco and all sorts of other things which might increase the number a bit, but I think this is in the ballpark.

Again - I don't suggest someone above this number just gives up, because a lot can happen between now and October...
Click to expand...

That's... very sad. So we can expect a much higher density of selectees per cn than last year. Damn.
 
Kiwione said:
The Auckland consulate was really up front about not hesitating to call them whenever I needed help. I received a phone number with my 2NL and the lady who dealt with immigration visas would answer my questions every time I called (probably 5 or 6 times in total). There's gotta be someone at the Sydney consulate who you can talk to.
Click to expand...
The Auckland consulate in general seemed to have it's proverbial together. AimLK said she got a response by email usually the following business day, however I haven't received anything yet and I suspect they basically had skeleton staff on over the break and will probably be getting back to normal business this week so hopefully I get a response and my passport.
Edit: I just checked their website and they have a non-immigrant visa enquiries phone number but only the email for immigrant visa enquiries. Seems to suggest they don't want people calling about their green cards.
 
Ok I JUST got an email response from Sydney Consulate:

"Thank you for your inquiry. We have checked your case and noted that it has been approved and it looks like we should get it finalized and mail it out this week."

So I guess that's good. I was getting a bit worried, but looks like I was right and they're just behind because of the holidays. Every step of this process is a test in patience, that's for sure.
 
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