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DV 2015 AOS Only

Hi Sm1smom, if I arrived in April 2014 but went on a 3-day trip to Mexico in Aug, and completed my medical exam within the 30 day period of re-entry in mid-Aug – should I be worried that this will be a problem?

I submitted the DS-260 mid September, but did the medicals while waiting for the 30 days to elapse. Just wondering if this is something I should be concerned about.
 
Hello,

I looked over the past visa bulletins and it appears that at least since DV 2009 all the visas became current on September latest except for DV 2014. So if I’m correct it means that before DV 2014 anyone able to get through the process by September 30th would not have been rejected for a lack of available visa number. I am therefore wondering what happened in September regarding DV 2014 for people whose number became current. So I turn to our experts J : Did some of them whether through CP or AOS reported being rejected because the visas were exhausted (I’m not talking about being in AP)?
In fact I am wondering if there is a kind of non-written rule stating something like : “if we are running out of visas we will slow the rhythm by which case numbers become current in the visa bulletin to ensure that all the pending applications that will be processed by September 30th won’t be rejected for a lack of available visas.” If it is not the case AOS sounds more scary than AOS now that the tendency seems to be that some regions never become current.
What about the fact that DV 2015 selectees are 125 000 versus 140 000 for DV 2014. Do you think it may enable some regions to become current (AF in my case ) ?
Thank you as always for your insight!
 
Karimm said:
Hello,

I looked over the past visa bulletins and it appears that at least since DV 2009 all the visas became current on September latest except for DV 2014. So if I’m correct it means that before DV 2014 anyone able to get through the process by September 30th would not have been rejected for a lack of available visa number. I am therefore wondering what happened in September regarding DV 2014 for people whose number became current. So I turn to our experts J : Did some of them whether through CP or AOS reported being rejected because the visas were exhausted (I’m not talking about being in AP)?
In fact I am wondering if there is a kind of non-written rule stating something like : “if we are running out of visas we will slow the rhythm by which case numbers become current in the visa bulletin to ensure that all the pending applications that will be processed by September 30th won’t be rejected for a lack of available visas.” If it is not the case AOS sounds more scary than AOS now that the tendency seems to be that some regions never become current.
What about the fact that DV 2015 selectees are 125 000 versus 140 000 for DV 2014. Do you think it may enable some regions to become current (AF in my case ) ?
Thank you as always for your insight!
Click to expand...

OK - first of all. Forget AF (or any other region other than NA) going current. It won't happen.

Last year the cutoff was at 81100 for AF, but there were case numbers all the way up to 116k. So - any AF case number higher than 81100 never got their chance (CP or AoS).

Imagine a bucket that holds about 5 liters. But to fill it you need to allow for spillage and it actually takes about 10 liters to fill it. DV2014 had 14 liters (140k). DV2015 has 12.5 liters. In DV2014 poured the liquid at a pretty constant pace of about a liter a month (after a slow start). They do vary the speed they pour water at to try and not fill it too quickly. In the end they managed to squeeze in just over the 5 liters and the spillage was around 5 liters. If they didn't stop pouring the spillage would have been 9 liters in DV2014 and would be 7.5 liters in DV2015. Either way, you are going to be standing in water. That is why current won't happen - because there is more than enough water to fit the bucket.

For AoS there were some cases that would not have got processed by the end of the year - although in the forum there was only one case like that (that we only heard about after the year had ended. Mom didn't lose a single baby for the sake of timing out.
 
Hello Mom i have a question, I know that I have a very low number but it could be the case that if my decision on the approval takes too much time they alocate the 50000 visas and i dont get the chance to get mine??
 
Geramosrod said:
Hello Mom i have a question, I know that I have a very low number but it could be the case that if my decision on the approval takes too much time they alocate the 50000 visas and i dont get the chance to get mine??
Click to expand...
Can't believe you still have not heard anything especially looking at how they seemed to move faster last year :(
 
I get your point thanks. My main concern is about someone who would have gone through the entire process by the end of September but still would have been rejected because the visas would have been exhausted in the meantime. I was wondering if you are aware of such a case in any DV year but especially in DV 2014 (AOS or CP). Thank you.
 
Karimm said:
I get your point thanks. My main concern is about someone who would have gone through the entire process by the end of September but still would have been rejected because the visas would have been exhausted in the meantime. I was wondering if you are aware of such a case in any DV year but especially in DV 2014 (AOS or CP). Thank you.
Click to expand...

Yes we saw LOTS of cases like that in DV2014.
 
Interesting but scary... But regarding AOS if I understand you correctly no one in the forum was in this situation except one, right ?
In the previous DV did you had such cases too ? thank you.
 
Karimm said:
Interesting but scary... But regarding AOS if I understand you correctly no one in the forum was in this situation except one, right ?
In the previous DV did you had such cases too ? thank you.
Click to expand...

In many previous years the regions went current - so most cases would have been completed and visas did not run out. However those years are not comparable to DV2014 or DV2015 because of the massive increase in selectees.

This link will show you some DV2014 stats.
http://britsimonsays.com/final-dv2014-ceac-data/

There is a lot of additional info on that site that will explain things. You are asking questions which we have gone over many times before and most are answered on my blog - so it would be helpful and appreciated if you would read that blog...

None of the AoS cases we were helping/observing in this forum got timed out or disappointed, but shortly after the end of the year one person came forward with a story of losing out because they had bad advice and submitted too late.
 
Britsimon said:
You'll be fine - you will have plenty of time.
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Hi Britsimon,
I contacted my Lawyer today. She said sending package early (before your number becomes current) is risky. Is that true? Also i am scared that they will run out of visa, since AOS takes much longer in processing. (Again, my CN is 57xx (nepal)).
 
Yogesh Baral said:
Hi Britsimon,
I contacted my Lawyer today. She said sending package early (before your number becomes current) is risky. Is that true? Also i am scared that they will run out of visa, since AOS takes much longer in processing. (Again, my CN is 57xx (nepal)).
Click to expand...


Well the risk is that they reject it and you submit it again. So what have you lost? I submitted mine early and lots of other people did the same. A few cases were rejected and had to resubmit. However, since you are graciously spending money on your lawyers education, perhaps you should follow his or her advice.
 
I think it's a real shame that so many people use lawyers in good faith when so few lawyers seem to understand much about the process.
 
SusieQQQ said:
I think it's a real shame that so many people use lawyers in good faith when so few lawyers seem to understand much about the process.
Click to expand...

So right. I have been complaining to some of the numpty lawyers on Avvo recently. Their advice is so bad that people will get disqualified. However, they won't let me comment unless I register as a lawyer.
 
Hi everybody,
Is it a problem if I don't have a flu shot in my medicals? I did it in the beginning of September and it was not a flu season then. Seems like my CN is current for February. Should I redo my medicals or it's going to be ok without it?
 
MK2015 said:
Hi everybody,
Is it a problem if I don't have a flu shot in my medicals? I did it in the beginning of September and it was not a flu season then. Seems like my CN is current for February. Should I redo my medicals or it's going to be ok without it?
Click to expand...
Flu shot is not required.
 
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