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DV-2014 Lottery High number or not? Please help.

be optimistic

Buffon said:
...wow.

So that's that for me then. I have 2014 Euro 51,XXX. Dream over.

I knew even when I got selected that there was a chance things wouldn't work out, but I didn't know it was that bad.

I could say more, about this or that, what's fair what's not, but honestly I am too crushed to speak right now.
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Hey Buffon, I wouldn't be so pessimistic if I were you. I think your number is somewhat high but I think you still have good chances. If they selected 20% more entries this year is for a reason, they wanna make sure that all visas are allocated. I know people from other years with cn higher than yours and they got their visas. No dream over for you man!
 
Did someone try to call KCC and asked them why they selected 20% more people ? Like that, we'll know for sure the reason ! Does someone can do that ?? :)))
 
Farma said:
Did someone try to call KCC and asked them why they selected 20% more people ? Like that, we'll know for sure the reason ! Does someone can do that ?? :)))
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Well the fact that they selected more people (or at least notified more winners) is not in doubt. As to the reason, I don't think it needs clarification. The reason to do that can only be to be SURE that they would have enough winners to fill the quota (and with 105k selectees they weren't consistently doing that. However, how many more than the 105k will it take to fill the quota - we don't know. To me it seems obvious that some selectees will not get interviews, but others don't agree at all. I hope I am wrong, but I doubt I am....
 
advice needed - my CN is very high EU43XXX and I know that it may not end up with interview. So, can I apply for DV2015 this fall or I'm not allowed since my case is already under consideration for DV2014?
one more thing I need to ask is - should I contact KCC to check whether they received forms or not? I checked the track number and it says delivered.
appreciate your help
 
Well, at the opposite, I think it needs clarification because actually there are 2 possible suppositions:
- either the number increased in order to fill the quota
- or like raevsky's theory, the hidden numbers are no more hidden that's why there are more numbers
These 2 suppositions lead to a different conclusion: if we are in the first case, it means almost everyone will get an interview before the end of the fiscal year (except maybe the very last case number). BUT, in the second case, it only means many people won't get an interview. For example, it means in Europe, people with a case number higher than 30000 won't probably did it. That makes sense and it's relevant with Raevsky.

Unfortunately, I don't speak english enough for calling KCC, but if someone feels like to do it, at least that will stop all speculations because right now, we don't know anything for sure !!

To bp317: Yes you can apply for DV2015, there is no problem at all. If you are too worried, yes you can contact KCC and check about your forms.
 
confirmation from KCC

bp317 said:
advice needed - my CN is very high EU43XXX and I know that it may not end up with interview. So, can I apply for DV2015 this fall or I'm not allowed since my case is already under consideration for DV2014?
one more thing I need to ask is - should I contact KCC to check whether they received forms or not? I checked the track number and it says delivered.
appreciate your help
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Yes, you can call or write KCC to ask them if they have received your documents. I did and they answered that my documents were received and are currently processing. Make sure to include your full name, case number and date of birth in the format MMDDYYYY, otherwise they won't be able to answer your inquiry.
 
Farma said:
Well, at the opposite, I think it needs clarification because actually there are 2 possible suppositions:
- either the number increased in order to fill the quota
- or like raevsky's theory, the hidden numbers are no more hidden that's why there are more numbers
These 2 suppositions lead to a different conclusion: if we are in the first case, it means almost everyone will get an interview before the end of the fiscal year (except maybe the very last case number). BUT, in the second case, it only means many people won't get an interview. For example, it means in Europe, people with a case number higher than 30000 won't probably did it. That makes sense and it's relevant with Raevsky.

Unfortunately, I don't speak english enough for calling KCC, but if someone feels like to do it, at least that will stop all speculations because right now, we don't know anything for sure !!

To bp317: Yes you can apply for DV2015, there is no problem at all. If you are too worried, yes you can contact KCC and check about your forms.
Click to expand...

what is the hidden numbers theory ? i didn't hear about it,
personally i think option 1 is the reason.
 
Farma said:
Well, at the opposite, I think it needs clarification because actually there are 2 possible suppositions:
- either the number increased in order to fill the quota
- or like raevsky's theory, the hidden numbers are no more hidden that's why there are more numbers
These 2 suppositions lead to a different conclusion: if we are in the first case, it means almost everyone will get an interview before the end of the fiscal year (except maybe the very last case number). BUT, in the second case, it only means many people won't get an interview. For example, it means in Europe, people with a case number higher than 30000 won't probably did it. That makes sense and it's relevant with Raevsky.
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Yes I know Raevsky thought the EU cutoff would be between 31 and 37k. He knew his subject - so I personally don't like ignoring his theory, but on the other hand the jump from 45k to 55k highest numbers (earlier years compared to this year) is explained very well by the 20% increase we know about, and there are plenty of reasons to assume that even a normal year would have seen interviews for numbers higher than the 37k number he suggested. So - if you believe Raevsky the cutoff for EU will be around 37k maximum. If you look at the 105k vs 125k theory (where the 105k number was not sufficient to fill the quota but 125k will be) then the cutoff will be somewhere in the 45-55k range.

I doubt a call to KCC will clear this up. It is all conjecture and quite honestly no one can predict when the quota will be met - not even KCC.
 
Hello congratulations to all who were selected for the year 2014. I won dv lottery 2014 my case number is 2014AF00078***.
Do you think I stand a chance to be interviewed?
Thanks in advance.
 
JONGE said:
Hello congratulations to all who were selected for the year 2014. I won dv lottery 2014 my case number is 2014AF00078***.
Do you think I stand a chance to be interviewed?
Thanks in advance.
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no one can be sure about it, but i think you have a good chance but you'll probably get to interview very late around August-September 2014
 
Hi all and congratulations to all Selectees

Another selected candidate, 2014EU000387XX. I cant help but notice that many selectees from Europe have high CN numbers.

Thoughts on this? Is there some hope in the high CN # pattern this year? They can't grant less visas to EU so I'd like to believe that there is some chance.

cheers
 
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urbanite said:
Hi all and congratulations to all Selectees

Another selected candidate, 2014EU000387XX. I cant help but notice that many selectees from Europe have high CN numbers.

Thoughts on this? Is there some hope in the high CN # pattern this year? They can't grant less visas to EU so I'd like to believe that there is some chance.

cheers
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There were 20% additional selectees this year - so that would mean there will be more high numbers. Yours is pretty good I think...
 
britsimon said:
There were 20% additional selectees this year - so that would mean there will be more high numbers. Yours is pretty good I think...
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Thank you Britsimon for the quick reply. Do you think that is realistic if I'm thinking to go through the AOS processing or I do lessen my chances by doing so?
 
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I understand aos can be slower, so the traditional thinking is don't do it if your number is going to be current very late. You will only know that for sure once you see the progress being made on the visa bulletins next year, but with your number it is likely to be late summer. It depends on which office you go through. I would check out timelines in some of the aos threads here to get a better idea.

Don't forget, with CP, you will have to make a couple of trips to do the medical and then the interview itself - so that could be troublesome/expensive.

You can defer your decision for a while.
 
britsimon said:
I understand aos can be slower, so the traditional thinking is don't do it if your number is going to be current very late. You will only know that for sure once you see the progress being made on the visa bulletins next year, but with your number it is likely to be late summer. It depends on which office you go through. I would check out timelines in some of the aos threads here to get a better idea.

Don't forget, with CP, you will have to make a couple of trips to do the medical and then the interview itself - so that could be troublesome/expensive.

You can defer your decision for a while.
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Bristsimon- I'm currently on H1B and I don't have the flexibility of leaving work and travelling to Europe back and forth. I already sent the forms to KCC for AOS processing. I will just wait and see how it will play out. Thank you for your time :) and I appreciate you insight
 
urbanite said:
Bristsimon- I'm currently on H1B and I don't have the flexibility of leaving work and travelling to Europe back and forth. I already sent the forms to KCC for AOS processing. I will just wait and see how it will play out. Thank you for your time :) and I appreciate you insight
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Any new numbers this week ?
 
Good luck to all winners!
I have EU383..
So as far as I understand my chances are low, but I still have it, right? :cool:
 
nismalia small

britsimon said:
I think that is a pretty good number - should have time for a interview...
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I hope so! I like positive approach you have. It is a way better than Raevsky who breaks all hopes and dreams with his "number is big, you have no chances"...
 
BigMamma said:
I hope so! I like positive approach you have. It is a way better than Raevsky who breaks all hopes and dreams with his "number is big, you have no chances"...
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I know what you mean. I actually think Raevsky knew/knows the subject very well - but yes his delivery was a bit brutal at times. By the way - Raevsky would have said that number was too high - he was calculating a cutoff in the range from 30 to 37k. As I have posted before I respected his knowledge, BUT I think (and hope) he was being a bit too pessimistic in that range. In reality none of us can be sure one way or another but I would feel pretty comfortable sitting on EU38XXX. You will notice for instance that Europe went current in DV2013 (from 33k the previous month) and since we believe there was a high of around EU45k for DV2013 that means they put everyone from 33k to 45k current with 2 months to go. That should be encouraging for you!
 
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