Britsimon, I have a question. I know how it works with cutoffs. But! Let's say my CN will be in current next summer and they will announce it in June as they did this year. I will get notification about interview date after they made it all current or 1-2 months before as the do it with cutoff numbers? Do you understand what I mean?
DV-2014 Lottery High number or not? Please help.
- Thread starter AldoBlack
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Britsimon, I have a question. I know how it works with cutoffs. But! Let's say my CN will be in current next summer and they will announce it in June as they did this year. I will get notification about interview date after they made it all current or 1-2 months before as the do it with cutoff numbers? Do you understand what I mean?
TylerMsk
Registered Users (C)
My case number is 40***
Good afternoon, friends. My case number is 40*** and i am from Russia. I am not a professional in dv lottery , but i see that this lottery is different from the early years. On this forum and on another Russian forum i see that there are a lof of high cases, I hope that we all have chances. My opinion that if american government department have opened such cases, it means only that we all have a chance. Why the Europe cases are going to 58***? If these cases have no chances, why the departmens of USA had opened them? I think the last must be a 45*** case as an example. What chances have i got if my case is 40*** EU. I would like to hear all opinions on this subject.
Good afternoon, friends. My case number is 40*** and i am from Russia. I am not a professional in dv lottery , but i see that this lottery is different from the early years. On this forum and on another Russian forum i see that there are a lof of high cases, I hope that we all have chances. My opinion that if american government department have opened such cases, it means only that we all have a chance. Why the Europe cases are going to 58***? If these cases have no chances, why the departmens of USA had opened them? I think the last must be a 45*** case as an example. What chances have i got if my case is 40*** EU. I would like to hear all opinions on this subject.
Eucn
Registered Users (C)
Where have you seen 58xxx case number for Europe. The highest I have heard is 52xxx.
Anyway last year there were too few who completed the process only around 34000 visas were given and I think they increased the number of winners to ensure that the full quota of 50000 visas will be used.
Your chances are probably 50/50 come September 2014
Anyway last year there were too few who completed the process only around 34000 visas were given and I think they increased the number of winners to ensure that the full quota of 50000 visas will be used.
Your chances are probably 50/50 come September 2014
Britsimon
Super Moderator
The visa bulletin gives information weeks in advance. So here we are in June - the July VB was published about a week ago, and in that VB is information about the predicted numbers in August. People who saw their number range became current in that June bulletin are just nw getting emails informing them of the interview dates in August. Does that answer your question?
urbanite
Active Member
Hi Britsimon-
Quick question,
Assuming that my case number (EU00038XXX) becomes current in August 2014, and also assuming that I'm able to file 1 month in advance(and they accept it), do I still stand any chance of my I-745 filing to be processed.
Also you mentioned that it also depends on the office I file with. I reside in NYC so that office will probably handle the interview and my case. Would you please be able to advise?
Thank you again,
Britsimon
Super Moderator
I don't feel qualified to answer that for you - because I haven't read enough on AOS yet (although I will soon as I expect to switch to AOS myself. I think you should read the DV2014 thread and post your question there. There are very knowledgable and helpful people that will help out there. I think it is most certainly worth you making a careful plan to give yourself the best chance possible just in case of delays or in case your number doesn't go current until September...
Results for max open number for DV-13 are ready. Prospects for the corridor for max number invited for interview in DV-14 are clear too.
AF 97,000 - 116,400. We have seen wins up to 116,xxx, they are within the corridor and have a chance.
AS 10,700 - 12,800. We have seen wins up to 26,xxx. Unfortunately, at least 51% of those winners will not be invited to the interview (above 12,800).
EU 32,000 - 38,500. We have seen wins up to 54,000. Unfortunately, at least 29% of those winners will not be invited to the interview (above 38,500).
NA 2 - 25. Difficult to predict because of high volatility.
OC 1,640 - 1,970. We have seen wins up to 2,9xx. Unfortunately, at least 32% of those winners will not be invited to the interview (above 1,970).
SA 1,300 - 1,580. We have seen wins up to 2,xxx. Unfortunately, at least 21% of those winners will not be invited to the interview (above 1,580).
AF 97,000 - 116,400. We have seen wins up to 116,xxx, they are within the corridor and have a chance.
AS 10,700 - 12,800. We have seen wins up to 26,xxx. Unfortunately, at least 51% of those winners will not be invited to the interview (above 12,800).
EU 32,000 - 38,500. We have seen wins up to 54,000. Unfortunately, at least 29% of those winners will not be invited to the interview (above 38,500).
NA 2 - 25. Difficult to predict because of high volatility.
OC 1,640 - 1,970. We have seen wins up to 2,9xx. Unfortunately, at least 32% of those winners will not be invited to the interview (above 1,970).
SA 1,300 - 1,580. We have seen wins up to 2,xxx. Unfortunately, at least 21% of those winners will not be invited to the interview (above 1,580).
Britsimon
Super Moderator
HI Raevsky, welcome back. It is good to have your input into the forum and although some may not like the answers you give (or the delivery perhaps) I think we can all appreciate that you have studied the subject over a period of years. I hope everyone will let the past be in the past and not dwell on old disagreements.
So, to question you on your post. The message you say is clear, but I would like to understand how your predictions would actually take place. You are saying high numbers won't even get an interview - and given that all numbers are current that seems hard to understand. Why wouldn't USCIS just not go current and have a max case number so that people can understand why they aren't getting an interview.
In DV2013 we have seen some regions go current in August, the rest in September. I appreciate you will be able to prove as we move through August and September what numbers are actually receiving interviews and visas but at this point are you predicting that any DV2013 selectees will not be interviewed? A great many numbers just went current so are there numbers that you can say categorically will be disappointed? It seems like that would be a short term way we could have confirmation or denial of your point (because if someone with a number that should not be scheduled gets an interview that would be the theory busted).
The thing is Raevsky is that I don't want to believe the statement you have made above - however I do respect your expertise and analysis so I can't just ignore it either (although others are welcome to do so!!).
So, to question you on your post. The message you say is clear, but I would like to understand how your predictions would actually take place. You are saying high numbers won't even get an interview - and given that all numbers are current that seems hard to understand. Why wouldn't USCIS just not go current and have a max case number so that people can understand why they aren't getting an interview.
In DV2013 we have seen some regions go current in August, the rest in September. I appreciate you will be able to prove as we move through August and September what numbers are actually receiving interviews and visas but at this point are you predicting that any DV2013 selectees will not be interviewed? A great many numbers just went current so are there numbers that you can say categorically will be disappointed? It seems like that would be a short term way we could have confirmation or denial of your point (because if someone with a number that should not be scheduled gets an interview that would be the theory busted).
The thing is Raevsky is that I don't want to believe the statement you have made above - however I do respect your expertise and analysis so I can't just ignore it either (although others are welcome to do so!!).
They are current for DV-13, that will not be the case for DV-14.
DOS Visa Office will issue non-current cut-offs by the end of DV-14. That happened in the past many times. Recently that happened too, for some countries.
No, my predictions were about DV-14, not about DV-13.
I think you completely misinterpreted what I said.
Those are predictions for DV-14.
The situation with DV-13 is very much different.
For DV-13: EU and SA are clearly underfilled. Other regions are right on the border, might be small underfilling or small overfilling.
You probably though that this is DV-13 prediction because it appeared first in the September 2013 thread.
It appeared in that thread not because of the purpose, rather then because of the reason. Because VB for September has been issued, they have schedules for Africa and Oceania for September on CEAC, that allowed me to get the max numbers for those regions in DV-13 and complete my prediction for DV-14. Predictions for other regions were already complete.
Hopenewsun
Registered Users (C)
Hi raevsky
My cn 2014AS00011***
According to ur calculation, where do i stand? What are my chances??
My cn 2014AS00011***
According to ur calculation, where do i stand? What are my chances??
Hopenewsun
Registered Users (C)
Hi ravaesky
My cn 2014AS00011***
According to ur calculations, where do i stand? What are my chances??
Hi Raevsky - welcome back
How do you get these percentages of people who won't be interviewed? Is it based on last years results? If your theory of open and hidden numbers is right, how can you determine the cutoff between the selectees who are notified and those who are not?