Britsimon
Super Moderator
I also thought so!
But he predict over 55278 visa issued, that's an other affabulation from sloner
I think he realises that won't fit - and he mentions NACARA which is an important piece we don't know for sure.
DV-2014 Lottery High number or not? Please help.
- Thread starter AldoBlack
- Start date
I think he realises that won't fit - and he mentions NACARA which is an important piece we don't know for sure.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
His numbers are selectees (2013 and 2014) based on released information.
Then he has 2013 visas issued (based on the CEAC data spreadsheet.
The final red column is his predicted visas issued, ignoring the global limit. In other words, the demand for visas based on selectee counts.
As I have pointed out above, there are some problems with his numbers, (i.e. missing data from CEAC 2013 results plus the lack of AOS numbers). However, the results (adjusted with my comments) demonstrate the shortfall being somewhere between 18% and 7% - and that is about what I expected.
Sloner
Active Member
The selection process has changed, I think they brought some improvement in the DV14. For example reinforced find duplicate and fraudulent entries. I believe that three of the lottery used to the new software.
That's right, there is no AOS. 8-17% is a bad application that will not participate in the further process.
выигравшие = selectees
Визы = Visas
африка = Africa
Европа = Europe
Азия = Asia
Южная Америка = South America
Океания = Oceania
Всего = Total
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
Probably September.
Borderline for SA
Good afternoon raevsky....After the last VB announcement and as of today what do you think is the borderline number for SA?
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Britsimon
Super Moderator
Around August/September.
Kayend
Active Member
I don't think it will be that late. It should be around April to June if you are not from Nepal or Iran. If AS14xxx only get interview from Aug or Sept, it mean only ~(50% to 60%) of selectees get their interview. If we still believe AS20xxx is under the safety net for Asia which is ~80% of the selectees.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
I don't think it will be that late. It should be around April to June if you are not from Nepal or Iran. If AS14xxx only get interview from Aug or Sept, it mean only ~(50% to 60%) of selectees get their interview. If we still believe AS20xxx is under the safety net for Asia which is ~80% of the selectees.
Yeah, I understand your thinking and you could be right, although I would be surprised (amazed) to see that as early as April. We would need February and March to jump by around 5000 per month, when so far it has gone up to 3000 in four months. So I understand your reasoning, but it seems like June/July would be the earliest...
Kayend
Active Member
Based on what I understand so far, Iranian selectees mainly occupied case # from 1000 to 9000 and Nepal mainly occupied case from 10,000 to 14,000. If this 2 countries cannot cope with the interviews scheduled, it have special cut off for both countries. If this really happen then it is possible for Asia to jump from 2,000 to 4,000 per month.
Anyway, it has to jump from coming months in order to meet at least 18xxx case #.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Mijoro
Well-Known Member
I am sure we have it listed somewhere it where is each area at in terms of where we were at last year? What areas are miles in front which ones have fallen behind etc. every area went current in 2013 didn't it, which areas do people think will go current this time. Area= region.
Kayend
Active Member
Statistically, no region will go current this year unless the pick up rate is lower than last year or consular post impose more stringent requirement for interview.
fouadabunabout
Registered Users (C)
guys , from 2000 to 4000 per month its too much , based on the coming numbers from the last vb - i am AS5000 i dont believe i van reach it befor another 4 month if they keep going 350 per month ,
Hi Sloner...
Sorry, I don't understand your answer.
Can you help me with this question
Which is your appreciation about borderline for SA?
Kayend
Active Member
Yes, if you based on last month cut off progress, no region can even reach 50% of interview rate and DV14 again will not fulfill it quota. If you know what I mean.