Hi Skache .... about you high CN I believe you will be interviewed you are safe. I have been following a thread with the top DV gurus.....and here is one of the calculations done by our top guru Britsimon on the matter
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Britsimon
24200 is the number of selectees (including family) shown on CEAC up to the January cutoffs. So - looking at Rafikbos data, the January cutoff for AF was 19400 - and that is 11156 people. His data shows the visas issued numbers that could only have been issued to people up to the end of January. (because he grabbed the data on the 2nd February). So - his numbers show a total of 11294 visas for the cases up to the end January and 24200 is the number of selectees (up to the end of January).
So - Vladeks method demonstrates that the first 4 months success rate per selectee means that we need over 70k visas to satisfy the demand. Or to put it another way, at current success rates (for first 4 month and with NO AP cases going to issued and NO AOS) we would get to 55k visas with 117,854 selectees. Or we could get to 50k with 106964 (again with NO AOS and NO AP cases turning to issued)
So, contrary to your theory that we will see higher failure rates this year, we are actually seeing lower failure rates than 2013. So Sloner - what do you think?
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so go through this thread
sloner axiom a few pages back if you have time and check out the comments
http://forums.immigration.com/showthread.php?564265-sloner-axiom-)/page17