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Dv 2014 european winers here

OMG it's only 13,200 in January. Slow as molasses. Getting worried with my 29xxx number now.

As for Obamacare, then I totally support it and was so glad that it passed. Of course, the issues with the website and insurance cancellation is an absolute bureaucratic nightmare, but damn insurance companies cannot reject us on pre-existing conditions anymore, w00t. Also, a lot of Americans *cough* Republicans, do not understand that as more people pay into the system, the cheaper it will become. The money that insurance company makes from 20 and 30 somethings [who less likely to seek age-related illnesses that could very costly] help to stay afloat with a steady flow of cash.
 
2014EU00048xxx

Hi Guys,
I know that my CN is very high, but I think that next year I will be in USA with my family:) I have one simple question: Does anybody knows somebody that was lottery winner and did't get e-mail or invitation to go on interview in embassy just because his CN was very high?
 
Gosho said:
Hi Guys,
I know that my CN is very high, but I think that next year I will be in USA with my family:) I have one simple question: Does anybody knows somebody that was lottery winner and did't get e-mail or invitation to go on interview in embassy just because his CN was very high?
Click to expand...

In most recent years there have been about 105,000 selected as "winners" BUT there are only 55,000 visas (of which up to 5000 are reserved for the NACARA program). This year they have selected 140,000 winners (35% increase), but the available visas have not been increased. So, in previous (recent) years you won't find many people who were not invited for interview, but I think that will certainly happen this year. No one knows where the axe will fall, but your number is in the top 15% for EU, so you are at risk. You will have to keep your fingers crossed. IF you get an interview it would not be earlier than September 2014.

Best of luck to you.
 
britsimon said:
In most recent years there have been about 105,000 selected as "winners" BUT there are only 55,000 visas (of which up to 5000 are reserved for the NACARA program). This year they have selected 140,000 winners (35% increase), but the available visas have not been increased.
Click to expand...

Dear britsimon,
May i correct you that there have been about 105,000 selected as "winners" 2013,and 125,000 selected as "winners" 2014.
140,000 winners included families.
What do you think?
 
Ameer said:
Dear britsimon,
May i correct you that there have been about 105,000 selected as "winners" 2013,and 125,000 selected as "winners" 2014.
140,000 winners included families.
What do you think?
Click to expand...

There has been no change in the way they quote the numbers, so the 105k number also included family members. In the selection letter they referred top the 125k figure but when they published the selectees count it added up to 140k. So the increase in selectees is a real increase of 35%.
 
britsimon said:
In most recent years there have been about 105,000 selected as "winners" ...This year they have selected 140,000 winners (35% increase), but the available visas have not been increased. So, in previous (recent) years you won't find many people who were not invited for interview, but I think that will certainly happen this year.
Click to expand...

How do we know that in recent years most people were in fact invited for an interview?
Is this just theory or are there any such numbers published somewhere?
How can they possibly invite more than twice as many people (incl. their families) than there are visas available?

Could you remind me of how this process works (in a nutshell kinda way) ?
 
britsimon said:
There has been no change in the way they quote the numbers, so the 105k number also included family members. In the selection letter they referred top the 125k figure but when they published the selectees count it added up to 140k. So the increase in selectees is a real increase of 35%.
Click to expand...

Dear Simon,

It's not exactly as you say, my opinion of course. For DV2013 the winners are 105628, for DV2014 - 140659. So the increase is 33.16%. But in the winners for DV2013, there are no numbers for the extra winners from October, which took appr. 1000 vizas. So if we assumed that the extra winners were 5%, as 1000 is 5% of 50000, so the winners in DV2013 were 110909. And in this case the increase is 26.82%.
 
denitsa_zz said:
Dear Simon,

It's not exactly as you say, my opinion of course. For DV2013 the winners are 105628, for DV2014 - 140659. So the increase is 33.16%. But in the winners for DV2013, there are no numbers for the extra winners from October, which took appr. 1000 vizas. So if we assumed that the extra winners were 5%, as 1000 is 5% of 50000, so the winners in DV2013 were 110909. And in this case the increase is 26.82%.
Click to expand...

Yeah I see what you are saying - we don't know the numbers exactly - but there is no point trying to be precise about the percentage differemce. However it is very clear that it is significant to the point of being reasonaly certain that there are more selectees than needed - so, for the first time in a few years the global cutoff will be hit.
 
britsimon said:
Yeah I see what you are saying - we don't know the numbers exactly - but there is no point trying to be precise about the percentage differemce. However it is very clear that it is significant to the point of being reasonaly certain that there are more selectees than needed - so, for the first time in a few years the global cutoff will be hit.
Click to expand...

May be not. I hope for two aspects - if there are any vizas from Nascara and if the quatas for Europe rise up.
 
OnTheGo said:
How do we know that in recent years most people were in fact invited for an interview?
Is this just theory or are there any such numbers published somewhere?
How can they possibly invite more than twice as many people (incl. their families) than there are visas available?

Could you remind me of how this process works (in a nutshell kinda way) ?
Click to expand...


There is a spreadsheet that was scraped from the CEAC website that shows various statistics. The numbers don't seem to be complete (there is discussion of interviews on numbers higher than the max numbers shown). However, it gives a good idea of how few of the winners actually complete the process. I wrote a post about it here:-

http://forums.immigration.com/showt...a-into-words&p=2656858&highlight=#post2656858

The 2013 CEAC data is available here:-

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...VWWnJoV1BZSTF0R0JGeVRSTFE&usp=drive_web#gid=0
 
britsimon said:
There is a spreadsheet that was scraped from the CEAC website that shows various statistics. The numbers don't seem to be complete (there is discussion of interviews on numbers higher than the max numbers shown). However, it gives a good idea of how few of the winners actually complete the process. I wrote a post about it here:-

http://forums.immigration.com/showt...a-into-words&p=2656858&highlight=#post2656858

The 2013 CEAC data is available here:-

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...VWWnJoV1BZSTF0R0JGeVRSTFE&usp=drive_web#gid=0
Click to expand...

Ah, I missed your post back then. Thanks.

So does this mean that 30532 was the highest CN to have received a visa in the DV2013 period?


...... .... ........ ................
8744 'EU' 30505 '2013EU30505' 'Issued' 2 'MOS' 23-Oct-2011 09-Sep-2013 Moscow, Russia 2
8745 'EU' 30514 '2013EU30514' 'Issued' 2 'WRW' 18-Oct-2011 30-Aug-2013 Warsaw, Poland 2
8746 'EU' 30522 '2013EU30522' 'Refused' 1 'FRN' 07-Oct-2011 09-Aug-2013 Frankfurt, Germany 0
8747 'EU' 30527 '2013EU30527' 'Ready' 1 'BCH' 20-Oct-2011 01-Jul-2013 Bucharest, Romania 0
8748 'EU' 30530 '2013EU30530' 'Issued' 2 'MOS' 08-Oct-2011 14-Jun-2013 Moscow, Russia 2
8749 'EU' 30531 '2013EU30531' 'Issued' 2 'BLG' 21-Oct-2011 19-Jun-2013 Belgrade, Serbia 2
8750 'EU' 30532 '2013EU30532' 'Issued' 1 'TBL' 09-Oct-2011 25-Jun-2013 Tbilisi, Georgia 1
 
E-
britsimon said:
There is a spreadsheet that was scraped from the CEAC website that shows various statistics. The numbers don't seem to be complete (there is discussion of interviews on numbers higher than the max numbers shown). However, it gives a good idea of how few of the winners actually complete the process. I wrote a post about it here:-

http://forums.immigration.com/showt...a-into-words&p=2656858&highlight=#post2656858

The 2013 CEAC data is available here:-

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...VWWnJoV1BZSTF0R0JGeVRSTFE&usp=drive_web#gid=0
Click to expand...

Hi simon;
1- on the sheet the cn # are having wholes ex: 2,4,6... But than the familly members don't fit in there ? Exp: cn af# 6 has 3
Familly # but in front there is af cn#7 so now the derivative share the same cn as the principal app?
2- is ready means issued ? Coz its shows 0 visa issued at the end ?
3-who participated on this sheet, the dv selectees them selves ? Or did someone got hold of the data
From the us immg dept?
Ps: Sorry for harrassing u always with my questions.
 
OnTheGo said:
Ah, I missed your post back then. Thanks.

So does this mean that 30532 was the highest CN to have received a visa in the DV2013 period?


...... .... ........ ................
8744 'EU' 30505 '2013EU30505' 'Issued' 2 'MOS' 23-Oct-2011 09-Sep-2013 Moscow, Russia 2
8745 'EU' 30514 '2013EU30514' 'Issued' 2 'WRW' 18-Oct-2011 30-Aug-2013 Warsaw, Poland 2
8746 'EU' 30522 '2013EU30522' 'Refused' 1 'FRN' 07-Oct-2011 09-Aug-2013 Frankfurt, Germany 0
8747 'EU' 30527 '2013EU30527' 'Ready' 1 'BCH' 20-Oct-2011 01-Jul-2013 Bucharest, Romania 0
8748 'EU' 30530 '2013EU30530' 'Issued' 2 'MOS' 08-Oct-2011 14-Jun-2013 Moscow, Russia 2
8749 'EU' 30531 '2013EU30531' 'Issued' 2 'BLG' 21-Oct-2011 19-Jun-2013 Belgrade, Serbia 2
8750 'EU' 30532 '2013EU30532' 'Issued' 1 'TBL' 09-Oct-2011 25-Jun-2013 Tbilisi, Georgia 1
Click to expand...

The highest EU case yes - at least according to the CEAC data as scraped. I suspect that there may have been some higher numbers, but the gap was big enough that Raevsky stopped the script running. I have manually entered a few higher numbers myself, but had no results.
 
vladek15425 said:
E-

Hi simon;
1- on the sheet the cn # are having wholes ex: 2,4,6... But than the familly members don't fit in there ? Exp: cn af# 6 has 3
Familly # but in front there is af cn#7 so now the derivative share the same cn as the principal app?
2- is ready means issued ? Coz its shows 0 visa issued at the end ?
3-who participated on this sheet, the dv selectees them selves ? Or did someone got hold of the data
From the us immg dept?
Ps: Sorry for harrassing u always with my questions.
Click to expand...

1. The family members are not the reason for the holes. The holes are disqualified entries. The family members are associated with the main case number.
2. Ready means the selectee did not proceed at some point (but their case number was current). It may be (as I said above) that the person filled in the forms and then didn't turn up at the interview OR I suppose it could also be someone who simply didn't return the 122/230 forms at all.
3. The data was gathered from the CEAC website (link below). It is pretty easy to create a script to enter the case number, store the results (from the popup window) and then go on to the next number. That is called screen scraping.

The CEAC data is here https://ceac.state.gov/CEACStatTracker/Status.aspx - enter 2013EU30531 to see how it works.
 
Simon,
How do you know the gaps in the numbers?
Maybe from 20.000 till 30.000 there is only 5 CN from Europe?
How do you know that the highest EU number is 55.000?
 
britsimon said:
[30532]..the highest EU case [for DV2013] yes - at least according to the CEAC data as scraped. I suspect that there may have been some higher numbers, but the gap was big enough that Raevsky stopped the script running. I have manually entered a few higher numbers myself, but had no results.
Click to expand...

Based on this, I do not really think there is much reason to believe anyone above 33k max will have that much of a chance in this DV2014. As there is not much evidence of many higher numbers as densely represented in the list as these lower number blocks.
 
Gosho said:
Simon,
How do you know the gaps in the numbers?
Maybe from 20.000 till 30.000 there is only 5 CN from Europe?
How do you know that the highest EU number is 55.000?
Click to expand...

OK - easiest if I go backwards.

The highest numbers known are from internet forums where people have posted their numbers. There have been several reports of numbers in the EU55/56 range and some even higher than that. If it were just one case I wouldn't believe the number, but there are several cases - so I think it is about right. It is also in line with other years.

We know there are 46k selectees (including family members at around 1 extra family member per selectee) from Europe (USCIS published those numbers). So let's say there are around 25k selectees and we know that derivatives do not get their own case number), they should only need 25k case numbers - but we know that the numbers are much higher - so a number in the 50's seems probable. We also can see from the 2013 data that the case numbers went up to 30532 from 8750 selectees on CEAC.

So, to your next point about there being only 5 cases between 20 and 30k. Well true - we don't KNOW that isn't correct, but I think there are probably only about 4000 or 5000 case numbers from 20 to 30k (based on a uniform distribution of the holes).
 
OnTheGo said:
Based on this, I do not really think there is much reason to believe anyone above 33k max will have that much of a chance in this DV2014. As there is not much evidence of many higher numbers as densely represented in the list as these lower number blocks.
Click to expand...

Come on OTG - be a glass half full kinda guy would ya!

If you look at 2013 data EU got 14500 visas from 8750 selectees which covered the CNs up to 30532. So - 14500/30532 means you get .475 visas per case number. The 14500 is part of a data set that only accounts for 45k issued visas - so we know the actual number must be higher. I've explained this before, but my guess is that EU will get around 17 or 18k visas this year. I've explained that in another post that I will find. However, at .475 visas per case number that would mean a max case number of between 36k and 38k. I just can't imagine it being lower than that range, and frankly I find that range to be more pessimistic than it should be.
 
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