You are so sensitive. I was nice, I was just making a statement. I think that although technically all numbers are eligible for an interview, there is probably only a very small number of people who get an interview once they stop going by specific numbers each month. In other words, once they stop telling you the number, those who haven't been interviewed yet, their chances of getting a visa is very small. Here is my reasoning: why would they stop doing the numbers if they are still giving them out? What is the purpose of this? I am thinking that they stop doing it is because they are approaching the limit of 50,000 visas and they want to slow wind down the process and get only very few people till they hit the limit. I would like to get others' opinions on this.
Dv 2014 european winers here
- Thread starter ceskhermina
- Start date
You are so sensitive. I was nice, I was just making a statement. I think that although technically all numbers are eligible for an interview, there is probably only a very small number of people who get an interview once they stop going by specific numbers each month. In other words, once they stop telling you the number, those who haven't been interviewed yet, their chances of getting a visa is very small. Here is my reasoning: why would they stop doing the numbers if they are still giving them out? What is the purpose of this? I am thinking that they stop doing it is because they are approaching the limit of 50,000 visas and they want to slow wind down the process and get only very few people till they hit the limit. I would like to get others' opinions on this.
Your 'statement' assumes that Sm1smom doesn't know for sure, and is making a complete guess. That is not nice considering the correct and official information is right there on the Visa Bulletin for anybody who cares to read it, and therefore the one speculating and putting forward a complete guess is you.
Let me show you the correct reasoning by starting with undisputable facts:
1. USCIS and DOS have a limited number of personnel, and they basically only work 8 hours a day, 5 days a week. There are only a certain number of applications they can process in a month.
2. There are 55,000 diversity visas available, for which they select about twice as many for processing.
3. Every selectee is encouraged to submit the DSP-122 (as well as DS-230 for CP applicants) as soon as possible.
4. No single country can get more than 7% of the total visas available.
Because DOS have the data from DSP-122, they have a good estimate of how many people are actually willing to move forward. They calculate the processing capacity of consulates and CIS field offices, then arrives at the cutoff number. When there aren't many people filing DSP-122 they move the number faster to not waste available interview slots, conversely when many people are interested they move the number slower to not overbook the offices. The 55,000 visa numbers are a limited resource as well, so when they are running out of visas they will actually slow the number down. There was a year where one region never became current, which means there weren't enough time slots or visas to go around. There was also a year when a country or two never became current, which means they ran out of visas for those countries due to the 7% limit.
If they post 'current' on the bulletin, that means they have enough time slots and visas to cover everybody left, because they have a good estimate on how many selectees left to process.
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Britsimon
Super Moderator
Yes I agree - that might well be what happens this year.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
My opinion is that your reasoning is incorrect and based on your poor understanding of the system. The official statements, the actual experience of people here, the CEAC data (which is available in this forum) and the statements of MANY people who all have more understanding of the process than you show, all make me comfortable in saying your reasoning is entirely incorrect. You seem to be struggling with one of the most basic fundamental issues - this point is as clear to me as almost any point in this whole DV process. A few, but not many, people have demonstrated a similar lack of ability to comprehend - and those people just ask their questions politely and appreciate the answers. You seem unable to behave in that way despite your obvious limitations. I suggest you might want to take some time to read more and understand the process better. It seems like you want to make some sort of useful contribution, but at the moment you are not and just adding a lot of bad attitude where there is normally almost none. I hope you will strive to change that otherwise you will become the first name to add to my ignore list.
Maybe I'm wrong but I assume that in the case that a region is set to CURRENT means of course that all CN which are still not processed are POTENTIALLY handled afterwards for the current fiscal year. BUT when the (global) cutoff of 50.0000 GC is reached the already scheduled interviews will be cancelled and all still not handled cases will never get an interview appointment. And the global cutoff can be reached even before. Is that right?
So just a rough example, can it happen?
Assuming Europe has a CN cutoff in March for 28.000, EU selectees are scheduled until 26.500 in March, the rest maybe in April. At Apr 1st the global cutoff is reached that means that all other scheduled interviews will be cancelled even if the CN for Europe never become CURRENT?
My godness, it's not that easy as I expected..
Or am I totally off-topic now?
And please sorry for my english, it's not my native language...
Thanks and best regards
Mike
So just a rough example, can it happen?
Assuming Europe has a CN cutoff in March for 28.000, EU selectees are scheduled until 26.500 in March, the rest maybe in April. At Apr 1st the global cutoff is reached that means that all other scheduled interviews will be cancelled even if the CN for Europe never become CURRENT?
My godness, it's not that easy as I expected..
Or am I totally off-topic now?And please sorry for my english, it's not my native language...
Thanks and best regards
Mike
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Maybe I'm wrong but I assume that in the case that a region is set to CURRENT means of course that all CN which are still not processed are POTENTIALLY handled afterwards for the current fiscal year. BUT when the (global) cutoff of 50.0000 GC is reached the already scheduled interviews will be cancelled and all still not handled cases will never get an interview appointment. And the global cutoff can be reached even before. Is that right?
So just a rough example, can it happen?
Assuming Europe has a CN cutoff in March for 28.000, EU selectees are scheduled until 26.500 in March, the rest maybe in April. At Apr 1st the global cutoff is reached that means that all other scheduled interviews will be cancelled even if the CN for Europe never become CURRENT?
My godness, it's not that easy as I expected..
And please sorry for my english, it's not my native language...
Thanks and best regards
Mike
Hey Mike,
I'm a little confused about your post. At one point you seem to suggest that interviews could continue beyond the end of the fiscal year. That would NEVER happen. At 30th September on every year everything stops. If you don't have the visa by then you won't get the visa based on that DV win.
Next, yes, if the global limit of 50k (actually 55k but with 5K reserved for NACARA) is met any scheduled interviews would in theory be cancelled. I think there may be some very slight flexibility here based on new derivatives being added (for example someone has a baby before Sept 30th) and there is supposed to be a principal that you are scheduled for interview when a visa is available. However, at some point the simple logistics and lack of 100% control (for example AoS cases) might mean they go over the 50k limit by a couple of hundred.
As for your example, yes it is possible (and this year I would say probable) that the global limit will be reached before all regions are current. In that case, as Eucn describes, then we might see a scenario where EU goes to a higher number in August and September but never reaches current.
Hi britsimon,
sorry for confusing, I wasn't precise enough. It is clear that the visa issuing is limited to the related fiscal year. Extending into the next fiscal year isn't possible at all. With my post I'm just interested in the clarification of different scenarios when the visa issuing will end under specific circumstances. I guess I got most of it but probably not all. Your annotation explains it very well and closes leaks on my side, thanks.
Anyway nobody knows for now what will happen during this fiscal year, but your illustration makes it very likely that we will have a remarkable situation at the end. And unfortunately some disappointed guys....
Thanks again and best regards
Mike
sorry for confusing, I wasn't precise enough. It is clear that the visa issuing is limited to the related fiscal year. Extending into the next fiscal year isn't possible at all. With my post I'm just interested in the clarification of different scenarios when the visa issuing will end under specific circumstances. I guess I got most of it but probably not all. Your annotation explains it very well and closes leaks on my side, thanks.
Anyway nobody knows for now what will happen during this fiscal year, but your illustration makes it very likely that we will have a remarkable situation at the end. And unfortunately some disappointed guys....
Thanks again and best regards
Mike
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Glad it helped a little. I do think this year is going to end with some sad people. However, your number is superb - so no problems for you!
I wonder if they are allowed to recapture visa numbers not used by NACARA. Anyway, I saw that in 2011 they issued more than 50,000 DV green cards, but in 2012 they issued just a little over 40,000! I know 2012 is a bad year with the software issue and all, but it's sad to think of the 10,000 visas that went to waste.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
I have a feeling they can recapture unused NACARA visas if that exists. In practice though I think NACARA takes more than the 5k per year - because their allotment from the DV program is supplemental to other allotments already for that program. 2012 was indeed a horrile yea. As well as all the wasted visas there were the people that thought they were winners later to find out they were not and also those that were later found to be winners but never heard about the redraw in time to take advantage of it....
Eucn
Registered Users (C)
Is this just a complete guess or do you have a reliable source that can support your claim?
This is just my guess, just like everyone here just states their guess too. There is nothing official that explains exactly how this works.
Only because you are not smart enough to find the information doesn't mean they not exist.
moldova power
Registered Users (C)
In moldova people who have cn 7*** even dont no date of interview. i know man who have 7** and his inter will be on 5 nov So in our country interviews go slowly.
It all depends on the date of sending documents to KCC.
What I understand from this process is - If your documents are not ready for embassy review before VB is out then you need to wait another month. Because when the VB is out, KCC starts scheduling interview dates for those whose documents are ready.
What I understand from this process is - If your documents are not ready for embassy review before VB is out then you need to wait another month. Because when the VB is out, KCC starts scheduling interview dates for those whose documents are ready.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Yes.
scusyxx,
I completely agree with you that it probably doesn't matter what country the applicants are, what matters is that the documents must already have been processed by the time they are up. If the documents are not ready, then they schedule the interview later. I doubt that Moldova schedules interviews at different months from the rest of the world, as moldova power stated.
What's the percentage?