They really shouldn't wait to see how many persons will apply after they win because it would be somewhat unfair to the October winners (backups)
It's so hard to figure out what is really going on. But I do know that an additional 5 months will be added to 9 months we have already been waiting (if not selected on May 1st)....Again, why 5 months? It only took them 2 months to do the redraw in July.....
the redraw was a rush, an emergency. this year they don't have an emergency.
I just don't know what's going on... remember last year they used a new software to draw, this year they may have put in place a new computer/software to check pictures, catch fraudulent entries... It's purely speculation but my only explanaition is that they found too many fraudulent & illegitimate entries (duplicate, pictures...) & could end up with too few selected... So they may be waiting to see how many will apply & who will meet the requirement thus selecting more on october...
Let say after catching all illegitimate entries they end up with 60k... (not impossible, once they ended up with 80k-90k) they know that each year they never issue every visa avaiable, so 60k is way too few so they wait to see who can get the visa & depending on the result, select like 50-60k more...
But keep in mind that they won't increase the visas avaiable.
again speculation but :
new fraud detector technic
new picture detector (because the photo validator only check the picture size & pixels, not the picture contents)
results : too many disqualified