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Dv 2012 was a scam after redraw

House let God be the judge of everything.As things goes like this no comment to say cos i have some question to ask DOS?
 
For full transparency, the DOS should publish their results in detail. I would also want to see their methodology for ensuring randomness.
 
Raevsky, what was the probability of being selected in DV2012 from Europe?
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Too early to say. Next visa bulletin will have the rest of the data needed.

Then analise winning chances from anouther countrys and you whould see that it depends on the country.
High percentage of fraud doesn't exists in this counting because we get a final result with the fraud winnings as well. We get what we get.
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It does not depend on the country after all fraudulent entries from this country are eliminated. You can calculate yourself how many have to be eliminated.
 
House i dont want to comment of estimste of winning chance.I just took some research from 2 winners from NIGERIA.I discovered that these winners sumbitted there entries at the last 2 to 1 day of deadline,now am not saying only the 2 of them submitted as a NIGERIA?Take a look at DV 2011 results were you have 10 000 winners from thesame last 2 to 1 day of deadline,and KCC/ DOS are saying on the website that applicants should submit early that it is goog for early submittion,while what the are preacting is not what the true random is selecting.So many applicatns have come to realize that submitting late gives them 3 to 4% chance of winning which what we are seeing or if not that you see many winners that submits at the middle of the program getting heavily selected from the middle of the program and Kcc is preaching early submittion and claimin that evry draw is base on true random which to me DOS/KCC have not being fair.
 
I do not see any reason to suspect the results are not correct. However, I have not analysed them yet. One of the forums has about 40 wins from Europe.
 
In Egypt, doing military service is mandatory for all Male.
Someone didn't go to do military service because he was abroad, and by Egyptian military law this is considered as a military offence, and after he has been 30 years old he had to go to martial court and he was ruled to pay amount of money as a penalty.
After that they gave him a military certificate and it was written in this certificate that this person didn't do his military service(failed to recruit) and has treated in a martial court by case no...... and he is not asked to do military service any more.
Does this military certificate affect DV interview.
will this be considered as an offence(criminal record)?
Or criminal records refer to only civil crimes?
Why do they ask about military service?
 
Corewin said:
I took the statistic just from 2 countrys of different region - Kazakhstan and Nigeria

Dv 2009
Kazakhstan - 8812 submittants and 336 wins , winnning chance 1/26
Nigeria - 752721 submittants and 6041 wins, winning chance - 1/124
(for 6041 wins from Kazakhstan there should be 158432 submittants)
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Sorry - I haven't been following this thread closely, but where did you look up the number of submittants per country, say the 8812 from kazakhstan? And if you estimated it, on what basis? This is a question I have always wondered myself.

Thanks.
 
Dv 2009 Kazakhstan - 8812 submittants and 336 wins , winnning chance 1/26 Nigeria - 752721 submittants and 6041 wins, winning chance - 1/124
(for 6041 wins from Kazakhstan there should be 158432 submittants)

Dv 2010 Kazakhstan - 8792 submittants and 370 wins, winning chance 1/23 Nigeria - 1145393 submittants and 6006 wins, winning chance - 1/190
(for 6006 wins from Kazakhstan there should be 142715 submittants)

Dv 2011 Kazakhstan - 10967 submittants and 370 wins, winning chance 1/29 Nigeria - 1634692 submittants and 6000 wins, winning chance - 1/272

And you keep saying that chance to win doesn't depend on region or country
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Kzakhstan and Nigeria belong to different regions. Nigeria is a high fraud country, about 90% of entries are disqualified, they do not really play. Kazakhstan is not a high fraud country.
1/272 for Higeria is not a probability to win for a legtimate entry. Probability for an entry to be legitimate from Nigeria is about very low, and probability for a legitimate entry from Africa to win the same throughout Africa
 
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mr.XerXes said:
In Egypt, doing military service is mandatory for all Male.
Someone didn't go to do military service because he was abroad, and by Egyptian military law this is considered as a military offence, and after he has been 30 years old he had to go to martial court and he was ruled to pay amount of money as a penalty.
After that they gave him a military certificate and it was written in this certificate that this person didn't do his military service(failed to recruit) and has treated in a martial court by case no...... and he is not asked to do military service any more.
Does this military certificate affect DV interview.
will this be considered as an offence(criminal record)?
Or criminal records refer to only civil crimes?
Why do they ask about military service?
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you can ask the embassy about this and you must give a good reason and explanation why you left your military duty,, dose this considered a criminal record ? refer to the egyptian law and you will find the answer,,does this affect your green card ?If you paid the money of penalty ,you are clean ,,
Best luck for you man ,, I was exwinner from EGYPT :)
Best luck for ALL of us :):)
 
mn2_200 said:
you can ask the embassy about this and you must give a good reason and explanation why you left your military duty,, dose this considered a criminal record ? refer to the egyptian law and you will find the answer,,does this affect your green card ?If you paid the money of penalty ,you are clean ,,
Best luck for you man ,, I was exwinner from EGYPT :)
Best luck for ALL of us :):)
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Thank you for your reply.
In fact this question is for one of my friends, and that is his case.
Did you see any similar case like this before?
will this be a reason for disqualifying or for visa denial?
 
You need you military records in order to prove you were not convicted by a military tribunal. If you did not serve - prove it. If you served - provide your military records. As simple as that
 
raevsky said:
You need you military records in order to prove you were not convicted by a military tribunal. If you did not serve - prove it. If you served - provide your military records. As simple as that
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Thanks Raevsky for replying.
Could you tell me what is meant by military tribunal.
Note that in Egypt military law, if you didn't go to army at the time you are supposed to go, it is considered as MILITARY OFFENCE, and must be treated by martial court.
Thanks Raevsky for replying and your patience
 
Please Raevsky,
What is meant by CONVICTED, Does it mean going to tribunal PRISON?.
That tribunal offense I mentioned in my fast post, the decission of court (in this offense case) is to pay an amount of money as a penalty (For not serving in Army).
 
Could you tell me what is meant by military tribunal.
Note that in Egypt military law, if you didn't go to army at the time you are supposed to go, it is considered as MILITARY OFFENCE, and must be treated by martial court.
Thanks Raevsky for replying and your patience
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In most countries there are two court systems. Regular courts. And military tribunals. I guess it is the same as court martial. People could be convicted for military crimes by court marshial, or for crimes committed when you serve in the military. Conviction is the tribunal decision, made by a military judge. The military court system is independent from regular courts, you might have no police record and still be convicted by a tribunal. Because when you serve, you are not arrested by police, you are arrested by military police that is a part of military.
So, US should be sure you are not convicted by regular courts or by military tribunal.
Do you mean you have military law since Murarak was ousted? Or even before that?
 
I'm really doubt that 90% of submittants from Nigeria is a fraud,
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Any specific reason to doubt?
What do you doubt more - that 90% are disqualified or that all countries within the same region have the same probability to win, as stated in the law? I go with the law and do not doubt at all.

but if following your logic that means that they disqualify all the fraud before the draw,
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No it does not mean that

but that's not how it's going, they do not disqualify those submittants before the draw and you can see it, because after the draw we get the results with fraud and
not all the people recieve their visas, some of them would dusqualify at the interview because of dublicate applications/fake info.
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That depends on what you consider to be the draw.

They select certain amount of candidates, significantly more than finally selected from the region.
Then they disqualify entries with invalid pictures from those (no picture, picture of a dog, picture not in focus, e t.c.), then they apply face recognition software to them and disqualify duplicates. Then the draw is done.

For instance, they need to select 1000 people for a small region. They select 10,000 entries (which is 30,000 people) or so. In rank order. Then they apply those procedures to them. Then you have 2,000 people left (including family members; 28000 the rest are gone). Then you publish the first 1000 out of 2000. As simple as that.

So, if you define the draw not including reliminating duplicates, then it is done after the draw. But if you define the draw as the process described earlier, eliminating duplicates is a part of a draw.
 
raevsky said:
In most countries there are two court systems. Regular courts. And military tribunals. I guess it is the same as court martial. People could be convicted for military crimes by court marshial, or for crimes committed when you serve in the military. Conviction is the tribunal decision, made by a military judge. The military court system is independent from regular courts, you might have no police record and still be convicted by a tribunal. Because when you serve, you are not arrested by police, you are arrested by military police that is a part of military.
So, US should be sure you are not convicted by regular courts or by military tribunal.
Do you mean you have military law since Murarak was ousted? Or even before that?
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No, we have military law for cases involved with military services.It is before MUBARAK resigned.

As for my fast question, This person was treated by the court where the military judge has given a decision that this person must pay 3000 Egyptian pound and will not be asked to serve in army anymore(that is because he just turned 30 years old(that is the Egyptian law, no one can do his military service after age 30)).
 
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