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DV-2011 Winners Report Here!

Hi
I'm not sure to understand your question. could you asked reformulate?

Visa allocation for Asia region is not over as of August since there's a cutoff number. All the rest is to be considered during Sep (Current without a cutoff number)


Nalin said:
If all visa allocated for Asia is over by August, how would the visa bulletin be for September then.
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I read your post... and it's an interesting interpretation. There could be hidden CN numbers for applicants family members which would explain how CN get generated with higher number than selected entries.
Thanks for your sharing your thoughts


tmfl said:
If you are interested in prediction of CN allocation, my post #1670 in this thread and related posts could help.
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Nalin said:
Do you guys know the answer for this?
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You guys are going on with a number crunching game without knowing the basics !

a) Not all ~105k ppl who are selected originally SHOW interest in pursuing to the 2nd step.
b) Based on that interest, (ie dsp 122 sent to KCC) DoS estimate the demand vs visa availability and issue cut off numbers on a monthly basis, some countries whose demand is high have separate cut offs.
c) 55k total and 3850 per country limits are the only limit, no such 7500 asia limit!
d) At the year end when DoS think enough numbers are STILL available, they say regions are CURRENT, that means ALL eligible (regardless of CN) can apply (AoS) and may be called upon for intvws (CP). Then it is a game unto finish, either 55k total or 3850 country limit. fact is neither is met in most of the past years. (go to the ends of the following to see the totals)
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY2000 table VII.pdf
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY09AnnualReport_TableVII.pdf
 
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NuvF, what's your insight on attributing CNs process?
Is it sequential? ...
So far we have no proof to back up our assumptions..
We're still not able to be 100% sure why a smaller number of selected entries get a higher cutoff number... like Asia 14999 selected entries with a cutoff number in Aug bulletin around 28000.
 
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Thank you all of your explanations.
Why KCC is not disclosing these things to the people and hide it?
 
Montreal2011DV said:
Is it sequential? ...
So far we have no proof to back up our assumptions..
We're still not able to be 100% sure why a smaller number of selected entries get a higher cutoff number... like Asia 14999 selected entries with a cutoff number in Aug bulletin around 28000.
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CNs used to be sequential, until DV2008. I agree with "not 100% sure", meanwhile I wouldn't say "no proof". What I did in #1670 is providing one supportive evidence, which is not strong and not sufficient though. If CNs reached higher than number of winners were irrelevant to derivatives, the assumption could not explain stats of derivatives shown in visa bulletin.
 
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hello all, i am also a winner ! when my friend in the US called me in May and told me that i have a letter in the US i was wondering how i will get a letter there since i live in Nigeria, she then said its from the lottery people.well, i was not excited then becos i was under pressure preparing for my wedding coming up in 4 days time.After the wedding i called her again and asked what she really meant.she told me that i won ,and at that point, i was soooo happy.every thing around me seemed little cos i never expected it.it was a double blessing for me.married and going off to the US.wow.
i have filled my form and submitted now i await the second NL.Glory bre to God.
 
tmfl said:
Sorry, I don't understand what you meant here. Information about most of your question was disclosed.
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I mean you guys explain all this but they are NOT explained in the official DV web site or Visa bulletin.

For instance why can't KCC explain
1. how CNs are assigned to applicants (only main applicant or with family members)
2. what 'current' means in DV program
3. what the highest CN issued in each region and each year
4. How many selectees were not able to get visa because of high CNs in the recent yrs
5. etc.
 
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@Nalin, looking for straight fwd answers from US govt?.....especially from DoS/DHS/USCIS?....Ahh...welcome to USA!!

@tmfl,

I think your 1000 winners 3000 total ppl hypothesis is bit fundamentally wrong! (in fact I stopped worrying about this long time back, just not worth 'cos all you need to know is that lower the CN you will have early chance and higher it is bit risky. No one explain it for you on the face, you need to find it for yourself OR in US and some many other countries there is a breed of ppl who say they are the best guardians and ppl who know best this info....known as 'US imm. lawyers', good luck asking them!!)

DoS clearly say that around ~110 WINNERS are notified to vie for 55k visas.
We know for a FACT that 55k (or what ever total they issue each yr) are TOTAL, ie Principal app+derivatives.
Therefore ~110k too is total, so for Asia ~15k winners means total WITH derivatives. (probably about ~8-10k principals)

My best guess is each FAMILY of principal winners are given or reserved a block of sequential numbers, 3 or 4 is my best guess. Those numbers may be used or may be not depending on family size.

No winner in this forum disclose their CN's last digit. If they do, we will be able to get 'some' good idea how this is done.
For ex. if most end with 0 or 5, it say something, that may be blocks of 5 are used. Mine was 0 in DV09.

Make a poll, if you will, to find out how this last digit vary!
 
Nalin said:
Thanks a lot TMFL, very valuable info.

did you notice this guys

For Ex. few CNs on 1 & 2 Sep.

2010AS30063 DV 9/1/2010 8:30
2010AS29998 DV 9/1/2010 8:30
2010AS29306 DV 9/1/2010 8:30
2010AS28732 DV 9/1/2010 8:30
2010AS22549 DV 9/2/2010 8:15

They are not in order. (AS22549) Has he been called for second interview??
Second thing , Visa bulletin say cutoff for Asia is 28700.
BUT AS30063 is called for the interview???
I AM REALLY CONFUSED
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Wow! it's really interseting.
 
Sorry but this is wrong, 100,XXX selected applicants are main applicants without derivatives.
It's clearly stated on the official lottery website. And the 50 000 visas are for the petitioners, and the others family members get derivative visas (not from the 50 000 visas).

NuvF said:
We know for a FACT that 55k (or what ever total they issue each yr) are TOTAL, ie Principal app+derivatives.
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Montreal2011DV said:
And the 50 000 visas are for the petitioners, and the others family members get derivative visas (not from the 50 000 visas).
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Is it true? I'd appreciate it if you would show which official documents clearly mention, because stats in DOS site/DHS year book suggest 50k includes derivatives.
A lawyer I hired when I got H1B (and helped me enter DV lottery for the first time) sometimes figured out languages used in official documents/official instruction regarding visas/immigration law are vague on occasion.
 
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Montreal2011DV said:
I can't see any stats of derivatives shown in visa bulletin.
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Hi, Montreal2011DV, thank you for your comment.
Just in case of my inaccurate wording, let me show the sentence from July 2010 bulletin:
"Applicants registered for the DV-2011 program were selected at random from over 12.1 million qualified entries (16.5 million with derivatives) received during the 60-day application period that ran from noon on October 2, 2009, until noon, November 30, 2009."

Of course I needed to put one more assumption that" derivative(s)/each entrant" is roughly proportional to "derivative(s)/each winner" and that's one of the reasons why I mentioned "not strong, not sufficient".
 
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Hi Montreal2011Dv and tmfl:

This is jws0630 from Asia. I found that you folks have the discussion of the CN for a while and here is my concern. In the 1st NL, it said that "Approximately 100000 INDIVIDUALS were registered for futher processing". In this sentence, do you see the keyword "INDIVIDUALS". From my understanding, this "100000 INDIVIDUALS" means the combination of main applicants and derivates. If my assumption is right I am still confused about why my CN is so High.


CN: 2011AS00035xxx
Received: 2010/5/20
Sent Forms back via post-office as regular mail: 2010/5/22
KCC confirmed and acceptable for futher processing
 
Hi I'M winner of 2011dv I FİLLED in and sent back my forms to KCC.The company who apllied for me greencard lottery anounced my winning at heir website on 5th,August,2010.I filled forms by myself and sent .I didint get any confirmation my forms receipt yet.What should I do?My forms delivered 28th,August,2010 post office confirmed.Can I have some information about the sponsor issue?AND the following schedule.Please could you help me?
 
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