Okay we'll all prayerfully wait for the formuar to be used. It has to be used oh. But come to think of it, why would KCC send out more letters than they can handle. U don't raise people's hope and then dump them in the middle of the flight. We are sane coz we know whats up but what about plp that don't have access to the internet or access to the kind of information we have, they would pass out from waiting expecially after announcing to the whole world that u won the lottery.
Dv 2007 winners From Nigeria
- Thread starter jrcies
- Start date
MamaJ, i understand ur concern.U are not alone my sister.
Just let us see what the next bulletin will look like.I am hopefull that Nigeria will be favoured.
Men,this seem the first time all regions are current in the visa bulletin.
sinexworldwide
Registered Users (C)
You are not left out, it's just that there's somebody in that case range that is not ready yet, and all things is working together for that person, relax! keep preparing, get your documents ready and keep praying. It will surely come.
You have no idea, how many times people dey ask me say, you still never go?
I think so far it is has never been on record that anyone selected in Nigeria for the DV has not been invited for interview.
So let still keep the fingers crossed.
It is well
Our success is for real.
Jrcies, i feel you, i can imagine how it feels
Whether they like it or not the counsel of God will stand, he brought us to it and he will surely see us through, i will at this junction say that nobody should wait for anything or any paper to be ready go get everything ready and prepare to run, the rush hour is here, its going to be very well for we shall all be interviewed and be succesful in Jesus Name Amen.
I have told Daddy in heaven that he should not allow all my prayers in Forum to go unanswered, and am sure he will answer me. Hanna gave birth at her old age, Abraham got a call from God at his old age, he and his wife Sarah gave birth at thier old ages, heaven makes it mandatory for every pregnant woman to give birth at the Nineth month, September is our nineth month and we shall all give birth to success Amen, so go get yourself prepared. It is well.
Jrcies, i feel you, i can imagine how it feels
Whether they like it or not the counsel of God will stand, he brought us to it and he will surely see us through, i will at this junction say that nobody should wait for anything or any paper to be ready go get everything ready and prepare to run, the rush hour is here, its going to be very well for we shall all be interviewed and be succesful in Jesus Name Amen.
I have told Daddy in heaven that he should not allow all my prayers in Forum to go unanswered, and am sure he will answer me. Hanna gave birth at her old age, Abraham got a call from God at his old age, he and his wife Sarah gave birth at thier old ages, heaven makes it mandatory for every pregnant woman to give birth at the Nineth month, September is our nineth month and we shall all give birth to success Amen, so go get yourself prepared. It is well.
Last edited by a moderator:
God's favour is ours
God's favour is ours
I like your courage Jrcies. I shall be well with you.
Pst. Adebayo, i agree with your prayers. We shall not be disappointed at the end of the program in Jesus name. Our desires / expectations shall not be cut short in the might name of Jesus. Amen Amen Amen
Hey plp of God,
I saw this post on one of the forum and i thot i shd share it, what do u guys think about this???
#21 15th June 2007, 02:46 AM
alemitmee
Registered User Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 51
Ok well its not that straight forward.
Firstly lets look at the numbers, then it will all become clear, The DV is not totally chance there is a lot we can learn from the statistics.
DV-2007 according the August bulletin, when you total up the winners for Africa you get about 44000. That means last year during the course of DV-2007 44000 people from Africa were sent NL’s.
During the Allocation of the NL’s the law states that:
“A qualified entry submitted electronically directly by an applicant has an equal chance of being selected by the computer at the Kentucky Consular Center” and “Every entry received during the lottery registration period will have an equal random chance of being selected within its region”.
see: http://travel.state.gov/pdf/DV_2008_Final.pdf Page 6.
So the KCC computer goes of and randomly selected 44000 people from the list of applicants. Although “randomness” is very hard to replicate in a computer system, (don’t forget I am a software engineer!) but that is another debate
So think about it logically person one is from country A, person two from country B person 3 from country C and so on.
Now the laws of probability state that if from a pool of 2 million applicants there is half a million applicants from one country (this is a typical amount that apply from Nigeria every year), And there is an equal chance of any one person being selected, then there is a higher chance of someone from that country ending up being selected.
Think about it like this if there were 20 people in a room, 10 people from Ireland, 2 from Austria, 2 from Poland, 2 from Hungary, 2 from Belgium and 2 from Bulgaria.
Now I get all the people to mix them self up into a random order, I blindfold you and get you to pick out 5 people. All things being equal you are going to select mostly Irish people as the pool that you are picking from has 10 Irish people in it. Make sense??
So that concludes my probability tutorial!
That is basically how the regional selection works. This year the top three countries that got NL’s in Africa were:
NIGERIA 9,849
EGYPT 7,229
ETHIOPIA 6,871
This was directly due to the number of qualified applicants in the selection pool. These total nearly 24000.
Now Remember that the NL’s for Africa ran from 2007AF00000001
All the way to 2007AF00044000. but the order in which people from each country was allocated NL’s was totally random (see above) that means that in this range 9,849 people from Nigeria were selected, 7,229 were selected from Egypt and 6,871 from Ethiopia were selected. Now comes the tricky part, why is Nigera now capped at 18,000 and what is the over all effect of this?
This means that the US is most likely nearing the 3500 (7%) GC cap for these countries. That unfortunately possibly puts people, that have high number at risk of never having there number become current.
Its unfortunate, but remember the DV system is designed first most to be fair, and give every one a chance. If too many people from any one country apply then rather then have the whole DV issuing GC’s to that country, they end up getting capped at 7%.
That means that there will end up being thousands of people who may never have a current number.
The absolute maximum number of GC’s that can be issued to these three countries is 10500, and in reality it will be a good few thousand less, going by past GC’s issued.
This in effect will leave up to 13500 people high and dry. So People in the queue with numbers above AF2007AF00018000 for now are out of the system.
And there could be as many as 7500 of them for Nigeria alone.
That means in order for the US to meet the 50,000 quota they have to race through the AF numbers to get people from other African nations that only have a small amount of NL’s with numbers above this.
That is how people with seemingly high numbers in AF still manage to become current and get there GC’s. Simply because so many thousands of people are stuck frozen in the DV process because so many people from there country are in getting their GC’s processed.
So I hope that all makes sense to people and goes some way to dispel the illusion that the DV is some magical thing, its not, its all statistics and probability and a small bit of luck for those involved.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tade256
Does it mean that in Ukraine only 3,500 of 13,000 interview ended with a green card? And for Ethiopia only about 15%?
No what is means that the US is getting close to the Ukraine’s and Ethiopia’s 7% fair share of the GC’s. So they cant really process any more cases, so they cap the countries. as they cant by law give more then 7% they have to slow down the interviewing for these countries, they just cant continue giving them GC’s and it just so happens that this point arrived when the cut off numbers were at 13000.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tade256
And why are those individual cut off numbers moving?
They move because the CG’s stats change month to month and they have to move the interviews to match. Don’t forget that the US are obliged under the law to issue the DV GC’s they have to meet there 50000 target as best they can.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tade256
Especially for Ethiopia, it went down from 22,900 to 16,000 from July to August.
This is a puzzler I don’t know what to make of this???
Quote:
Originally Posted by tade256
I hope these questions are not boring to you
Never boring, as I said I studied statistics while I was doing my computer science degree and I love analysing numbers. I refuse to believe that this DV process is only down to luck, and in fact its not.
Once there are too many people from a country who have got NL’s then the chances of getting a GC is much lower as your number gets higher. That is the way the DV is designed, its unfair to people in those countries, but at the same time its unfair to small countries to lose out just because too many people from another country applied. It’s a debate alright, the system is good and bad, I guess it just depends what country you are in.
I saw this post on one of the forum and i thot i shd share it, what do u guys think about this???
#21 15th June 2007, 02:46 AM
alemitmee
Registered User Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 51
Ok well its not that straight forward.
Firstly lets look at the numbers, then it will all become clear, The DV is not totally chance there is a lot we can learn from the statistics.
DV-2007 according the August bulletin, when you total up the winners for Africa you get about 44000. That means last year during the course of DV-2007 44000 people from Africa were sent NL’s.
During the Allocation of the NL’s the law states that:
“A qualified entry submitted electronically directly by an applicant has an equal chance of being selected by the computer at the Kentucky Consular Center” and “Every entry received during the lottery registration period will have an equal random chance of being selected within its region”.
see: http://travel.state.gov/pdf/DV_2008_Final.pdf Page 6.
So the KCC computer goes of and randomly selected 44000 people from the list of applicants. Although “randomness” is very hard to replicate in a computer system, (don’t forget I am a software engineer!) but that is another debate
So think about it logically person one is from country A, person two from country B person 3 from country C and so on.
Now the laws of probability state that if from a pool of 2 million applicants there is half a million applicants from one country (this is a typical amount that apply from Nigeria every year), And there is an equal chance of any one person being selected, then there is a higher chance of someone from that country ending up being selected.
Think about it like this if there were 20 people in a room, 10 people from Ireland, 2 from Austria, 2 from Poland, 2 from Hungary, 2 from Belgium and 2 from Bulgaria.
Now I get all the people to mix them self up into a random order, I blindfold you and get you to pick out 5 people. All things being equal you are going to select mostly Irish people as the pool that you are picking from has 10 Irish people in it. Make sense??
So that concludes my probability tutorial!
That is basically how the regional selection works. This year the top three countries that got NL’s in Africa were:
NIGERIA 9,849
EGYPT 7,229
ETHIOPIA 6,871
This was directly due to the number of qualified applicants in the selection pool. These total nearly 24000.
Now Remember that the NL’s for Africa ran from 2007AF00000001
All the way to 2007AF00044000. but the order in which people from each country was allocated NL’s was totally random (see above) that means that in this range 9,849 people from Nigeria were selected, 7,229 were selected from Egypt and 6,871 from Ethiopia were selected. Now comes the tricky part, why is Nigera now capped at 18,000 and what is the over all effect of this?
This means that the US is most likely nearing the 3500 (7%) GC cap for these countries. That unfortunately possibly puts people, that have high number at risk of never having there number become current.
Its unfortunate, but remember the DV system is designed first most to be fair, and give every one a chance. If too many people from any one country apply then rather then have the whole DV issuing GC’s to that country, they end up getting capped at 7%.
That means that there will end up being thousands of people who may never have a current number.
The absolute maximum number of GC’s that can be issued to these three countries is 10500, and in reality it will be a good few thousand less, going by past GC’s issued.
This in effect will leave up to 13500 people high and dry. So People in the queue with numbers above AF2007AF00018000 for now are out of the system.
And there could be as many as 7500 of them for Nigeria alone.
That means in order for the US to meet the 50,000 quota they have to race through the AF numbers to get people from other African nations that only have a small amount of NL’s with numbers above this.
That is how people with seemingly high numbers in AF still manage to become current and get there GC’s. Simply because so many thousands of people are stuck frozen in the DV process because so many people from there country are in getting their GC’s processed.
So I hope that all makes sense to people and goes some way to dispel the illusion that the DV is some magical thing, its not, its all statistics and probability and a small bit of luck for those involved.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tade256
Does it mean that in Ukraine only 3,500 of 13,000 interview ended with a green card? And for Ethiopia only about 15%?
No what is means that the US is getting close to the Ukraine’s and Ethiopia’s 7% fair share of the GC’s. So they cant really process any more cases, so they cap the countries. as they cant by law give more then 7% they have to slow down the interviewing for these countries, they just cant continue giving them GC’s and it just so happens that this point arrived when the cut off numbers were at 13000.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tade256
And why are those individual cut off numbers moving?
They move because the CG’s stats change month to month and they have to move the interviews to match. Don’t forget that the US are obliged under the law to issue the DV GC’s they have to meet there 50000 target as best they can.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tade256
Especially for Ethiopia, it went down from 22,900 to 16,000 from July to August.
This is a puzzler I don’t know what to make of this???
Quote:
Originally Posted by tade256
I hope these questions are not boring to you
Never boring, as I said I studied statistics while I was doing my computer science degree and I love analysing numbers. I refuse to believe that this DV process is only down to luck, and in fact its not.
Once there are too many people from a country who have got NL’s then the chances of getting a GC is much lower as your number gets higher. That is the way the DV is designed, its unfair to people in those countries, but at the same time its unfair to small countries to lose out just because too many people from another country applied. It’s a debate alright, the system is good and bad, I guess it just depends what country you are in.
soken02000
Registered Users (C)
MamaJ, I copied this below from the Glosary of Visa Terms in answer to your question. It means Ethiopia has reached it's numerical limit & oversub-scribed hence the reduction. This could be as result of pending cases that were due to re-scheduling of interviews. Ethiopia may not go beyond this limit in the September bulletin. Unless the pending cases they are to treat in June-August does not exhaust Ethiopia's numerical visa limit.
"Retrogression: Sometimes a case that is current one month will not be current the next month. This occurs when the annual numerical limit has been reached. This usually happens near the end of a fiscal year (October 1 to September 30 of the next year). When the new fiscal year begins, the Visa Office gets a new supply of visa numbers and usually brings back the cut-off dates to where they were before retrogression"
"Retrogression: Sometimes a case that is current one month will not be current the next month. This occurs when the annual numerical limit has been reached. This usually happens near the end of a fiscal year (October 1 to September 30 of the next year). When the new fiscal year begins, the Visa Office gets a new supply of visa numbers and usually brings back the cut-off dates to where they were before retrogression"
maryolufende
New Member
Why The Panic
Whats up, I actually don't know the reason for this panic, from my own study and going by last year's case number I think everybody should be current come september. Taking a clue from last year, the bulletin for july 2006 showed that 18,xxx were current for Nigeria and come august bulletin everybody was current, so why the panic men of little faith.
Whats up, I actually don't know the reason for this panic, from my own study and going by last year's case number I think everybody should be current come september. Taking a clue from last year, the bulletin for july 2006 showed that 18,xxx were current for Nigeria and come august bulletin everybody was current, so why the panic men of little faith.
Maryolufende is right. There is still some time to go. I was just trying to explain why some countries get capped during the DV process. I can in no way predict what will happen in any of those countries, keep your fingers crossed like the rest of us!
In 2006 all Nigeria’s numbers ended up current, so there is no reason why that wont happen again! Good luck.dont make same mistake
hi my people in da house
I feel sad about what i have to say but i want every one who is yet to go for their interview to learn and not make same mistake. my interview was yestaday, 14th june 7am.
All my docs were complete but for my medics which was to be out by monday 18th. i left my home in ojodu- berger by about 5.35am and i was feeling cool that i will be at d embassy at least some minutes before d time. Sad to say i didn't get to the embassy till about 8.30am.by them those for 7am appointment had gone in and that was that. No story could change any thing. I could ONLY go in during the 11am time that the embassy schedule to attend to questions and enquiries. For not keeping my first appointment i was rescheduled for first week in August.Can you imagine that, after all the anxiety of waiting this long to be finally called up. I work on mainland so i was thinking 5.35am was early enough and cos i was carrying some money i felt leaving home too early was risky. But to God be the glory i was given dis second chance. Iam wiser now and i will look for somewhere on the island to sleep the nite b4 my next appointment. PLEASE, no one one should take chances any more. If you are coming from afar, please look for where/how to pass the nite b4 your interview on the island to avoid any surprises/shocks.For any one now to miss his/her first appointment and be rescheduled is just too dicey. But thank GOD for HIS mercies, i see us all in dis house smiling and testifying. It is well with us all. A great weekend to ya all
hi my people in da house
I feel sad about what i have to say but i want every one who is yet to go for their interview to learn and not make same mistake. my interview was yestaday, 14th june 7am.
All my docs were complete but for my medics which was to be out by monday 18th. i left my home in ojodu- berger by about 5.35am and i was feeling cool that i will be at d embassy at least some minutes before d time. Sad to say i didn't get to the embassy till about 8.30am.by them those for 7am appointment had gone in and that was that. No story could change any thing. I could ONLY go in during the 11am time that the embassy schedule to attend to questions and enquiries. For not keeping my first appointment i was rescheduled for first week in August.Can you imagine that, after all the anxiety of waiting this long to be finally called up. I work on mainland so i was thinking 5.35am was early enough and cos i was carrying some money i felt leaving home too early was risky. But to God be the glory i was given dis second chance. Iam wiser now and i will look for somewhere on the island to sleep the nite b4 my next appointment. PLEASE, no one one should take chances any more. If you are coming from afar, please look for where/how to pass the nite b4 your interview on the island to avoid any surprises/shocks.For any one now to miss his/her first appointment and be rescheduled is just too dicey. But thank GOD for HIS mercies, i see us all in dis house smiling and testifying. It is well with us all. A great weekend to ya all
Baba Aladura
Registered Users (C)
Visa don finish
My best guess is that "visa don finish for Ethiopia"; therefore no point in calling more people for interview.
Baba Aladura
Registered Users (C)
Learning process
I did not know that your number must be current before you get interviewed; I previously assumed that you get interviewed according to how fast you return your first package to KCC.
Indeed, some people may get their first letter in May 2007 and not be interviewed till September 2008 - 1.5 years- too long a time to put your life on-hold.
I started tracking the DV interview process last year; this was the first time I actually got to know how the process works even though I had been entering for DV since 1993.
I did not know that your number must be current before you get interviewed; I previously assumed that you get interviewed according to how fast you return your first package to KCC.
Indeed, some people may get their first letter in May 2007 and not be interviewed till September 2008 - 1.5 years- too long a time to put your life on-hold.