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Do you think they catched duplicate entries?

So based on the number of entries & the selected, you can tell how much entries were disqualified...? I'm done arguing, what you state doesn't make any sense
Concidering the fact that you count deriviatives among the selected show that you are wrong... dead wrong
raevsky said:
What is wrong here? Yes, everything is correct, that is what is happening.
About the number of winners and the number of entries.
Of course I wrote the article in wiki. Based on those official numbers.
Another example.
Of course, the amount of entries in those phone books is huge. All this junk is in fact that 86%, as you see.
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So based on the number of entries & the selected, you can tell how much entries were disqualified...?
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There is the third piece, as I said before.
The official rule that the chances within region are the same and do not depend on the country

I'm done arguing, what you state doesn't make any sense
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You did not even start. I did not notice a single argument from you. Just general inbeleif.

Concidering the fact that you count deriviatives among the selected show that you are wrong... dead wrong
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You need to count them if you want the correct figures. You have to compare apples to apples, not to oranges.
 
So a bangladeshi which country makes more than 2/3rd of the entry with 7000 spots have the same chance as a turkish with 115k entries...?
Tell me
raevsky said:
There is the third piece, as I said before.
The official rule that the chances within region are the same and do not depend on the country

You did not even start. I did not notice a single argument from you. Just general inbeleif.

You need to count them if you want the correct figures. You have to compare apples to apples, not to oranges.
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turkey is asia...
ok, another one Malaysia has 6,935 this years, blangladesh has 7,667,030 entries (but is limited to 7 000 entries... Are you telling me that the malaysian born has the same chance than the bangladeshi one...? Even using you "official" chance percentage, you say an asian has about 0.68%... Only using this year number, bangladeshi with 7.6 million entries & a maximum of 7 000 selected... do the math & then explain because you will find a winning chance of 0.092%
raevsky said:
No, only the countries from the same region have the same chances.
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turkey is asia...
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Really? Half of the Turkey is geographically in Europe, and DOS beleives Turkey is chargeable under Europe.
Are you telling me that the malaysian born has the same chance than the bangladeshi one...?
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Yes, within the best effort of KCC. malaysia has small amount of winners, and the law of large numbers works well with large amount of winners. What i mean is a coint could give you 2-3 or even 5 heads in a row. But not 100 heads in a row. The frequency for Malaysia is higher than for Asia in general because of a fluctuation. That is possible for small sets. Is is even higher for Bruney (5 winners out of total 319)
 
You haven answered my QUESTION.... bangladeshi; you say an asian has about 0.68%... Only using this year number, bangladeshi with 7.6 million entries & a maximum of 7 000 selected... do the math & then explain & tell me the percentage you find...
& the fact that you included deriviatives show that all of your calculated percentages are wrong
raevsky said:
Really? Half of the Turkey is geographically in Europe, and DOS beleives Turkey is chargeable under Europe.
Yes, within the best effort of KCC. malaysia has small amount of winners, and the law of large numbers works well with large amount of winners. What i mean is a coint could give you 2-3 or even 5 heads in a row. But not 100 heads in a row. The frequency for Malaysia is higher than for Asia in general because of a fluctuation. That is possible for small sets. Is is even higher for Bruney (5 winners out of total 319)
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You keep saying high fraud... show us the official link which it is stated... & u know what? I have a strong conviction that many many countries have high fraud since not everybody especialy from africa can have 24/7 internet access to read the instructions... Most of them just go online to participate... I bet a lot of them do not even know the rules add to that that many of them are just deseperate to leave their countries so they maigh be tempted to cheat (they risk their lifes on boats (western africa) so who knows how many entries they can submit...)
raevsky said:
BTW Turkey is another high fraud European country (except Ukraine)
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jayo2k said:
So a bangladeshi which country makes more than 2/3rd of the entry with 7000 spots have the same chance as a turkish with 115k entries...?
Tell me
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Each regional 'pot' has FAIR balls with different colors (i.e. nationality).
Chances of drawing a BALL (winner) is the same within that pot. What color that ball is irrelevant for initial drawing. Subset of colors follows the laws of numbers so you may find more color x than Y in the final regional winner count. If you want a specific odd for a given color in the pot stats get complicated. You may also need to a/c for the fact that once a ball is drawn the pot has one less ball for the next draw. So....go do your math!!

Basically being a winner and it being a specific nationality are 2 different concepts, with different odds of course.
 
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boy oh boy...
LEt me tell u a small part of the rules should I?
ok
No more than 7 000 selected per country, do you know? ok
Now, some math for you :
Asia according to the stats has 0.68% chance
Bangladesh is in Asia
So IF we follow your "logic", 0.68% times 7.6 millions makes 52 000 selected...

Don't you find something incompatible here?
get lost with your balls, odds are mathematic & in that case, something DOES NOT FIT...

7 000 entries maximim per country... 7.6 million bangladeshi... 0.68% chance... something is wrong here... forget your balls & start doing some math to prove me wrong
NuvF said:
Each regional 'pot' has FAIR balls with different colors (i.e. nationality).
Chances of drawing a BALL (winner) is the same within that pot. What color that ball is irrelevant for initial drawing. Subset of colors follows the laws of numbers so you may find more color x than Y in the final regional winner count. If you want a specific odd for a given color in the pot stats get complicated. You need to consider that fact that once ball is drawn the pot has one less ball for the next draw. So....go do your math!!
Click to expand...
 
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& where this figures are from the officlas...? No such data can be found, this is from wikipedia... another proof.. for the past 3 DV, angolan born had a winning chance from 4.2 to 5.2% from 2008 to 2011...
 
@jayo2k

7k limit RULE initially?? who said , where, why??
0.68% who set it up?

Floor is yours pal, jump and roll as you may feel !!
 
yes, but even if we do not take the 7 000 limit, look at the past results & you will see that the most selected from country are about 7 000.. If thoses stats were right, you should have seen like 40 000 selected fro bangladesh only but in 2011, bangladesh had only 5 999 selected with 5,418,800 entries... If thoses stats were right, there should have been 36847 selected for bangladesh & not only 5999...
http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/types/types_5073.html
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/TotalDVApplicantsbyCountry.pdf
tmfl said:
No such a rule, strictly speaking.
7% rule applies to visa issuance.
Maybe you misunderstood my wordings in one of my previous posts?
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My bad, not even 7 000 but 6 000 so the chances are even lower
 
You haven answered my QUESTION.... bangladeshi; you say an asian has about 0.68%... Only using this year number, bangladeshi with 7.6 million entries & a maximum of 7 000 selected... do the math & then explain & tell me the percentage you find...
& the fact that you included deriviatives show that all of your calculated percentages are wrong
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For DV-2011.
6497926 entries total (with family members). This is an official figure.
5617599 excluded (86.45%, with family members). Those include people from phonebooks
Left 880327 - those are the ones to be considered (including family members).
5999 winners (including family members; this is also an official figure) divided by 880327 = 0.68%
Also, 5999 winners are approximately from 5003 entries, and those 880327 left participants are from about 734129 entries.
Of course, 5003/734129 is also 0.68%
The same as for Asia in general.
 
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Where the hell do you get the 86.45%...? Are you just calculating that to make your stat correct?
Because that what it seem, you just put thoses stats to make your stats correct...
SHOW US ANY OFFICIAL LINK WHERE WE SEE THE 86.45% of disquilified entries pls...
raevsky said:
For DV-2011.
6497926 entries total (with family members). This is an official figure.
5617599 excluded (86.45%, with family members).
Left 880327 - those are the ones to be considered (including family members).
5999 winners (including family members; this is also an official figure) divided by 880327 = 0.68%
Also, 5999 winners are approximately from 5003 entries, and those 880327 left participants are from about 734129 entries.
Of course, 5003/734129 is also 0.68%
The same as for Asia in general.
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He's making that up to make his stats correct... Basicaly, he calculated the odds & found out that the bangladeshi ones wasn't fitting so he made some mathematical gymnastic to fit his stats
NuvF said:
where did you get that from??
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jayo2k said:
He's making that up to make his stats correct... Basicaly, he calculated the odds & found out that the bangladeshi ones wasn't fitting so he made some mathematical gymnastic to fit his stats
Click to expand...

And you followed those same stats and insulted others???? nice..............
 
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