I don't find the India EB3 situation puzzling at all. I don't believe there's any conspiracy or ulterior motive involved. The explanation is much simpler.
India has highest number of EB3 applications (not counting 245i's) among all countries. Due to country limits only a maximum of 2800 Indian EB3 applications can go through every year. But this limit is soft and surplus/overflow from rest of EB3 quota has historically kept India's EB3 going. The vast number of 245i applications choke off this overflow. India's proportion in 245i applications is indeed small, but that doesn't matter. 245i's are comprised mostly of Mexicans but many countries (including Russia, China and many others) are present in small proportions. Due the gigantic number of 245i applications, they're enough to prevent any surplus in EB3 quotas. Even though only a maximum of 2800 Mexican 245i applications will go through, there are people from Russia, China, Brazil that will dig into the EB3 pool. Many people believe that 245i applicants are nearly all Mexicans. Not true. I've personally met a person from Russia who (along with group of 20 friends) has applied for 245i. Another one person from Equador. Many Latin American country are represented in 245i. There people from Caribbeans, Eastern Europe, Pecific rim countries... you get the idea. I'll make a guess here: at least two dozen countries which are represented in 245i app pool in thousands.
Therefore, surplus EB3 visa above the country limit are not available to any country now. Why is India affected most by it? Because it has the highest number of EB3 applicants.
Ok. So how does it translate into what we have in store for future:
- While India, China and Mexico EB3 will remain deeply retrogressed (with India being the worst), RoW will make steady improvements as 245i's get processed, becoming current in 3-5 years.
- India's EB3 dates will cross May 1st during coming months. This is considered a Holy Grail by most people. It'll not turn out to be that. India's EB3 dates will continue marching forward through May, June, etc. at the pace of a paraplegic snail dragging lead behind it. Movement will be extremely slow due to lack of surplus from RoW. People from early 2002 can have hopes in 18-24 months. Same pace moving forward for rest of the years. In a nutshell, India EB3 applicants are royally screwed. And don't raise your hopes when India's EB3 dates cross May 1st. It's not a sign of troubles being over.
- EB2 applicants can expect PD movement in medium term. Don't expect anything next month. But you've reason to be optimistc in 6-12 months timeframe. This one is just a hunch.
- CIR is an obvious hope. But if it has any kind of hard country limit, its usefulness will be decimated. The number of applicants from India is so huge, that it badly needs surplus from RoW. Hard country limit with increased per country quota will reduce the wait from 10 years to 3-5, not any more.
Hate to be so downbeat here. I'm mostly a very optimistic person. But the problem is that -no matter how you look at it, India EB3's are more than neck deep in unprocessed sewage.
