Discuss: Visa Bulletin - Punishing news for India

Unitednations and Gravitation - both your theories are correct and actually reflect reality which is difficult for most people to digest. Thats what I meant by "reality hurts". The approach here (by DOS) is very objective (in terms of demand and suppply regulation) which makes people feel that it is prejudiced against a community. Basically the only way out of this is good humor :)
The Indian American community is considered a model community because of the achievements and the community has its own pride with achieving this status.
 
That's why I asked if CIR addressed an incrase in your quota.
Since it doesn't and that would probably be hard to be sufficient anyway, in my view your best bet would be fighting for two key benefits:

1. Let you file I-140+I-485 upon LC approval (you have done that)
2. More importantly:let us change jobs on EAD for people with priority dates > 3 years (remove that 'same or similar job' restriction)


chanduv23 said:
Unitednations and Gravitation - both your theories are correct and actually reflect reality which is difficult for most people to digest. Thats what I meant by "reality hurts". The approach here (by DOS) is very objective (in terms of demand and suppply regulation) which makes people feel that it is prejudiced against a community. Basically the only way out of this is good humor :)
The Indian American community is considered a model community because of the achievements and the community has its own pride with achieving this status.
Click to expand...
 
Yes marlon - interim relief and benefits at each stage is definitely something that can be considered while people wait through this long process. This paves a better and a more reasonable path towards immigration. These issues must be addressed to minute detail and at times it is difficult for people to understand the actual difficulties when they dont go through it. The intention can be "lets keep these people and pave a defined path" rather than "too many people from this country in this category we can't do anything". For eg... If someone is present here legally and abided to all rules and iss contributing and willing to contribute more, then definitely a fair chance is to be given to that person irrespective of his community or country. The objective approch can not do good on long run. There must be clarity in finding a solution. When people don't see that, it is depressing.
Thats what IV is trying to achieve: clarity, interim benefits etc... and that would definitely do a lot of good.
 
UnitedNations, Gravitation and others
Nobody is arguing that with AC21 nbrs having run out last year and hard country limits having kicked in with plenty of DOL backlog cases being cleared now is a royal screw for EB3 and specially for India bcoz of high demand.
What is not clear is hom much are people(specially 01,02,03 PDs) screwed...And to that nobody has an answer simply bcoz nobody knows the 'SPLITUP' of these 300k backlog...
2800 sure is a hard limit ....But this game is anything but straightforward.....there are so many other 'fun factors' in play..e,g a lot of people have refiled under PERM and moved to EB2 in past 18 mos...and so on and so forth...

Agreed that in the absence of any new laws EB3 is screwed....but nobody knows how much and that's killing......NOBODY knows if its gonna be 6 months or 3 years for lets say a 02 PD to be current!
 
Numbers Numbers Numbers

Is there a way we can find out how many H1Bs did India actually get in 1996, 1997, 1998,1999,2000. One can safely assume that those IND that got H1B in 2001 won't apply for GC immidiately. After this we can find out how many IND actually got GC thru EB categories. This will give us a good idea about the number of pending IND cases. Anyone up for this ardous task ?
 
saras76 said:
where_is_my_gc,
As for assimilation .. its a two way street .. for people to assimilate they must not feel threathned, they must feel comfortable and they must feel welcome. I am afraid the US lacks all of these things in this day and age.
saras
Click to expand...

Reminds me of this quote:

Adaptability is not imitation. It means power of resistance and assimilation -- MK Gandhi
 
India in 2001 ..

gravitation said:
Saras,
Okay. Not many from 2001 and before. That's great news.
However, there're plenty of 2002 and beyond. Once PD does cross 2002, it'll still be slow.

The key point of my reasoning is simply this: Historically India EB3 moved forward because of surplus from EB3 RoW. It's not available anymore. Even if current PD being stuck in Apr 2001 is unjustified, and they correct it and make it move at fast pace through 2001, it'll slow down drastically in 2002. India EB3 is not gonna get more than 2800 visas a year (and that's a maximum, not a minimum). That's my point.

regards,
Gravitation
Click to expand...

Guys,

I am not arguing that there is no demand for India EB3. I am also not stupid enough to believe that the DOS and USCIS has an agenda against India but because of the historically high demand for visas from Indians under EB3 the DOS and USCIS will always keep the dates of India EB3 well behind the date that it can be. They will always be over cautious and that is what is happening.

I know that India Eb3 will not become current anytime soon. I also know that once EB3 dates get into 2002 it will take a long long time but with ROW dates moving past April there is no reason for India EB3 to not move beyond 2001. There may be thousands of Indians in 245i but don't tell me they have all of sudden appeared on the desk of USCIS officers.

My point is that during retrogression the dates for India will always lag behind the situation on the ground because the DOS and USCIS will purposely keep it at a safe distance. Their fear is that India EB3 will flood them if they move India dates to fast so even if the demand for visas slows down for every other country they will not apply that principle to India. This is not a conspiracy theory, it is very logical and practical.

regards,

saras
 
True ...

GreenCardVirus said:
Reminds me of this quote:

Adaptability is not imitation. It means power of resistance and assimilation -- MK Gandhi
Click to expand...

GreenCardVirus,

Great quote. My only problem is that the debate in this country is moving towards imitation rather than assimilation.

regards,

saras
 
Just think about goals

Hi All,

As we all know the best way to deal with this is to review your goals.

Goal Priority
1) GC ?
2) Money ?
3) Family ?
4) Career ?

And think about following,

Am I happy in the current job (career or money)
Do I want to change job? Can I change job (legally)?
Will I be ok if I can change job with AC21? Can/should GC be a goal? If I could change job, will I care so much about final GC approval?

I thought about the same questions, and decided to change job. Before jumping I just asked my lawer (with previous employer) if they can still represent me if and when I start somewhere else. Once they said yes, I got little relaxed (even though this probably not needed) and started applying on all the job finders site and got the job in 3 months. It's been 1 month now on the new job. Got 14% raise plus the senior position.

So whatever happens happens ...
Decide the priporities in your life .... if GC is the top most priority well then ... you don't have any option but stick to it. But if it is not then there is atleast another choice ...
It may take a while to find a job but you have to atleast initiate it ...

I'm from India,
EB3 with PD DEC 2001.
140/485 filed concurrently in Dec 2004.
Working on 3rd EAD ...
 
Some humor

At New York's Kennedy airport today, an individual, later discovered to be a public school teacher, was arrested trying to board a flight while in possession of a ruler, a protractor, a setsquare, a slide rule, and a calculator.

At a morning press conference, Attorney General Alberto Gonzales said he believes the man is a member of the notorious Al-gebra movement. He is being charged by the FBI with carrying weapons of math instruction.

"Al-gebra is a fearsome cult," Gonzales said. They desire average solutions by means and extremes, and sometimes go off on tangents in a search of absolute value. They use secret code names like 'x' and 'y' and refer to themselves as unknowns, but we have determined they belong to a common denominator of the axis of medieval with coordinates in every country. As the Greek philanderer Isosceles used to say, 'There are 3 sides to every triangle.'"

When asked to comment on the arrest, President Bush said, "If God had wanted us to have better weapons of math instruction, He would have given us more fingers and toes."
 
I just can't imagine RoW backlogged so much in EB-3. I mean it cannot be that both India and RoW are all fighting for EB-3. Remember the total number of H1Bs were 65000. It then went up to 115,000 for 1 year and then upto 195,000 the next year. Of the 195,000 only a portion of it was used up. The next year it came down to 115,000 and further reduced to 65000.

The visa # limit for EB based GC is 140,000. Quite enough to satisfy 65000 H1B workers and their spouses. So I would have to think that the current backlog is caused by the spike in H1B in those 2/3 years. But on the visa # side we had the visa recapture that was in the range of 100k or so. So we should still be alright with a backlog of year or 2 or at the most 3. But we are backlogged by 5 years.... That's what baffles me.

Again 245(I) comes under EB3-OTHER so it's effect on EB3 is quite negligible. EB3-OTHER is unavailable....
 
You of all people ...

unitednations said:
Saras, how hard do you think it is for USCIS/DOS to say; row is retrogressed. India gets 2,800. What are the earliest 2,800 greencards filed for india? India CANNOT go above 2,800 until ROW becomes current.

How hard do you really think it is for them to print a report from their system which will give them fields for country of chargeability; category and priority date?
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unitednations,

Alright, you seem to have access to DOS and USCIS insider information as you so boldly make all sorts of dire predictions.

Please answer the following questions with your unique insight -

1. Why is India EB3 not unavilable? Why is it moving? 2800 is peanuts. That number should have been exhausted by now. After all, according to you there are thousands upon thousands of EB3 India 2001 filers + a million 245i India Eb3s. 2800 should have been used up by Jan 06. Its July 06 and India EB3 is still moving. Is the DOS manufacturing visas for India EB3 to move the dates to April 15???

2. Why is ROW moving by several months over the past few months? 245i's are all of sudden only affecting Mexico and India. Why is Mexico still available? Don't they get just 2800 as well. If there are a million 245i Indiands then there are a trillion Mexicans. Is the DOS manurfacturing visas for these folks as well?

3. Please explain why India EB3 was thrown back to 1998 and moved into 2001 within 6 months? I am sure the USCIS and DOS had access to the same glorious database that you have mentioned? Why would they move the dates to April 2001. After all, you are of the opinion that they should have all the records of visas allotted, the projected demand, the number of pending cases. According to you, we should also believe that the DOS and USCIS always think about everything in detail, take care of every little visa number for every little country. How could they move the dates back so far. Was it a glitch in their superb system?

4. Also please explain exactly how the BECs are working. The BECs that are sitting on cases for the past 2 years. According to your logic, the BECs have a superb system to keep DOS and USCIS informed about their progress. I am sure they used this system to start approving cases in a random manner. They even announced this fact. How sophisticated is that?

4. Please explain how my case that was filed in TSC gets to the Miami local office (I am in GA), sits there for 9 months, makes its way to back to TSC after 1.5 years and all along my EADs, APs and everything else get thrown around different offices, have to filed and refiled. How hard do you think it is to keep cases in the same office? We are talking about the super efficient and always correct DOS and USCIS here ...

Also can you explain the workings of the DOS and USCIS to us laymen. Please provide details of the stats they use and the sophisticated computer systems they use to ascertain these dates. These are great institutions employing the greatest minds and the top of the line technology. Only certain sophisticated people like yourself can understand the true wrokings and the intricate logic. Please enlighten all of us.

regards,

sars
 
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UnitedNations
Logically I agree with you that it shouldn't be rocket science to pull chargeability and nbrs. But I'm not sure if USCIS has that ability/will.
If it were the case they would publish real 'estimates' not the vagues lang they use in the bulletins like Increased demand....heavy demand etc etc
Oh, and BTW they would have had the report/nbrs all this while so why did they keep the dates current for 3.5 years?
I agree with your logic/theory..what I don't agree with is USCIS/DOL are competent/efficient AND WILLING agencies doing the best they can!
Either they are plain inefficent(aka stupid) or they don't care! Take your pick!
 
The issue is not about correct functioning of USCIS or DOL. It is not functional issue or a technical issue, the issue is more political and beaurocratic.

The only answer to this issue is good humor :)
 
AILA/DOS liasion

Folks, you might want to inquiry to your attorneys when is the AILA/DOS liasion. My attorney commented that it is a pretty good opportunity to ask short and mid-term advancement of visa cut-off dates. I am sure it will happen this Summer, I just don't know exactly when.
 
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Yes ..

marlon2006 said:
Folks, you might want to inquiry to your attorneys when is the AILA/DOS liasion. My attorney commented that it is a pretty good opportunity to ask short and mid-term advancement of visa cut-off dates. I am sure it will happen this Summer, I just don't know exactly when.
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marlon,

I think that meeting will probably provide a little more accurate information than the rest. Lets see what comes out of it.

saras
 
Marlon/Saras,

When is this meeting?


saras76 said:
marlon,

I think that meeting will probably provide a little more accurate information than the rest. Lets see what comes out of it.

saras
Click to expand...
 
The AILA annual conference will be held from June 21 through June 24, 2006 in San Antonio, Tx.
 
Thanks. That's the one. My attorney told me that that typically AILA gets a DOS spokesmen there able to give a pretty good idea on how the visa bulletin will look like in October.

AGC4ME said:
The AILA annual conference will be held from June 21 through June 24, 2006 in San Antonio, Tx.
Click to expand...
 
saras76 said:
unitednations,

Alright, you seem to have access to DOS and USCIS insider information as you so boldly make all sorts of dire predictions.

Please answer the following questions with your unique insight -

1. Why is India EB3 not unavilable? Why is it moving? 2800 is peanuts. That number should have been exhausted by now. After all, according to you there are thousands upon thousands of EB3 India 2001 filers + a million 245i India Eb3s. 2800 should have been used up by Jan 06. Its July 06 and India EB3 is still moving. Is the DOS manufacturing visas for India EB3 to move the dates to April 15???

2. Why is ROW moving by several months over the past few months? 245i's are all of sudden only affecting Mexico and India. Why is Mexico still available? Don't they get just 2800 as well. If there are a million 245i Indiands then there are a trillion Mexicans. Is the DOS manurfacturing visas for these folks as well?

3. Please explain why India EB3 was thrown back to 1998 and moved into 2001 within 6 months? I am sure the USCIS and DOS had access to the same glorious database that you have mentioned? Why would they move the dates to April 2001. After all, you are of the opinion that they should have all the records of visas allotted, the projected demand, the number of pending cases. According to you, we should also believe that the DOS and USCIS always think about everything in detail, take care of every little visa number for every little country. How could they move the dates back so far. Was it a glitch in their superb system?

sars
Click to expand...

Saras,

You raise some important points.

It is strange that EB3 India is still available, given that last year there were approx 20K-30K EB3s or so from India. I forget the exact number.

When IV people met the USCIS ombudsman, he said that USCIS has no good computerized database of all the applications. At a given instance, they cannot even tell how many EB2 or EB3 applications are documentarily qualified since they only track PD and name.

RIght now, the STEM exemptions are a big deal in all proposed legislation. This is where someone with a MS+ degree in Science/Tech/Eng/Math and 3 years experience gets exempted from the annual limits. Well, if someone's 485 is already pending and they are STEM exempt, they have to file another 485. USCIS' databases only track PD and name, so they can't pick out the STEM exempt ones.

I
 
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