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Cutoff numbers for March 2014 visa bulletin (contains April Cutoffs)

loveubritsimon said:
if the case current , how many days it will take to send kcc the 2NL , and how many days it will take to update the cheet for the interview date ,
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Current selectees will get an email late net week. As soon as the emails are sent, the appointment details are available on the ESC website.
 
britsimon said:
Sorry - didn't remember I had explained already.

About the slow scenario - I am not certain that restricted countries make more holes. It is possible though and would lead to faster progress later - as you know.
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Yes, you disagree with the idea of special countries will create more holes, but I still believe
 
It only makes sense for special countries to create more holes if they have a higher-than-usual fraud rate, surely? So I can see that Bangladesh probably used to, and Nigeria probably does, but not a country like Nepal which apparently has a high success rate. Although Nepal is not restricted, but you see what I mean.
 
SusieQQQ said:
It only makes sense for special countries to create more holes if they have a higher-than-usual fraud rate, surely? So I can see that Bangladesh probably used to, and Nigeria probably does, but not a country like Nepal which apparently has a high success rate. Although Nepal is not restricted, but you see what I mean.
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Well the theory is that a special country is limited during selection - and that we know causes concentration of the special countries in the early numbers. So for instance Nepal and Iran account for 80% of the early numbers for AS region. Nepal is restricted by the way. At some point in the process they stop selecting selectees from that country in a way that doesn't create extra holes or one that treats the selectees over the country limit as a hole.

I have flip flopped about this, but thinking about it the selectees all originally got the rank number then the country limits must indeed create extra holes. It has to work that way. So - that means that as the limited countries get exhausted, gaps increase and that will cause an acceleration of the VB case numbers in later months (only in regions where the special countries exist , i.e. AF, AS and EU).

That is why Rafikbo is so keen to figure out where the countries exhaust their numbers.
 
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bzdg...VvY2oyT3M/edit

i checked rayme's link and it shows ;
AF numbers uo to the 02/02/2014 with cutoff 21500

Issued 4541
Administrative Processing 895
Refused 756
Ready 6536
so out of 12700 selectees with thier family members produced 4541 visas on a periode of 4 months
i really dont understand why is the cutoffs are slow after a poor result like this assuming that Af takes between 21k to 24k visa !!!!!
 
vladek15425 said:
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bzdg...VvY2oyT3M/edit

i checked rayme's link and it shows ;
AF numbers uo to the 02/02/2014 with cutoff 21500

Issued 4541
Administrative Processing 895
Refused 756
Ready 6536
so out of 12700 selectees with thier family members produced 4541 visas on a periode of 4 months
i really dont understand why is the cutoffs are slow after a poor result like this assuming that Af takes between 21k to 24k visa !!!!!
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Most of the APs will go issued and many of the readies too. The data is still changing...
 
as a holder of CN EU22xxx, i think my interview will be available at first week of April ?

I wish success to all GC lottery winners, wish them to have their interviews as soon as possible.

PS: Depositing 30.000 usd dollars would be too much ?
 
britsimon said:
Most of the APs will go issued and many of the readies too. The data is still changing...
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the way i see, half of the readys and half of the APs becomes issued than will reach 8000 visas so that will numbers will balnce for AF, which means about 2000visas per month which will give 24k at the end !
i know im exagerating when saying that half or readys will come back , but it can still happen ! and at this pace if 13000 produces 8000visas they will only need 33000 of the 62000 af selectees !
:(
 
fanarin said:
as a holder of CN EU22xxx, i think my interview will be available at first week of April ?

I wish success to all GC lottery winners, wish them to have their interviews as soon as possible.

PS: Depositing 30.000 usd dollars would be too much ?
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April, yes - first week, maybe. You'll get your 2NL in the next week.

30k isn't too much - no!
 
fanarin said:
as a holder of CN EU22xxx, i think my interview will be available at first week of April ?

I wish success to all GC lottery winners, wish them to have their interviews as soon as possible.

PS: Depositing 30.000 usd dollars would be too much ?
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the more you show the better it is ! americans love money lol
 
ok simon check this ;
21750 cutoff for af produced 6370 existin CNs, now with derivatives we get 12700 selectees ok
assuming that the wholes are 3~4 between each cn like more or less we noticed from AF cn01 to AF cn21750
and 12770 incl produces 8000visas so 21750*3= 65250cn im screwed:(
 
fanarin said:
wouldnt they ask where it came from

and actually, it came from internet.
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Well if it was earned in a year when you pay US tax, the taxman might want a slice, but the immigration people don't care where it came from (assuming it isn't from crimes involving moral turpitude).
 
vladek15425 said:
the way i see, half of the readys and half of the APs becomes issued than will reach 8000 visas so that will numbers will balnce for AF, which means about 2000visas per month which will give 24k at the end !
i know im exagerating when saying that half or readys will come back , but it can still happen ! and at this pace if 13000 produces 8000visas they will only need 33000 of the 62000 af selectees !
:(
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No, read my post number 45 above. The holes rate will be increasing.

Quoted wrong post. This was in relation to the I'm screwed comment.
 
britsimon said:
Well the theory is that a special country is limited during selection - and that we know causes concentration of the special countries in the early numbers. So for instance Nepal and Iran account for 80% of the early numbers for AS region. Nepal is restricted by the way. At some point in the process they stop selecting selectees from that country in a way that doesn't create extra holes or one that treats the selectees over the country limit as a hole.

I have flip flopped about this, but thinking about it the selectees all originally got the rank number then the country limits must indeed create extra holes. It has to work that way. So - that means that as the limited countries get exhausted, gaps increase and that will cause an acceleration of the VB case numbers in later months (only in regions where the special countries exist , i.e. AF, AS and EU).

That is why Rafikbo is so keen to figure out where the countries exhaust their numbers.
Click to expand...

So if nigeria reaches 20000 than the vb will jump?
 
vladek15425 said:
So if nigeria reaches 20000 than the vb will jump?
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Africa has several countries that have been artificially limited during the selection. So in those countries they will have their 6000 selectees concentrated in the first x case numbers. As those countries exhaust their concentrations (or reach 7% which is not likely) then there can be bigger jumps on the VB. So, we will start to see 10k and 15k jumps in a month or two - depending where the countries max out.

Another way to put it is that even if the first 21750 yielded 8000 visas, the next 21750 would not yield so many and the 3rd 21750 would yield much less.
 
Last question : Out of the 62000 AF selectees where can you situate my cn +- ?
Thanks simon and sleep nice :)
 
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