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CEAC data update

I read the CEAC data page, so I understand what ready and AP is now. BT I am really worried now!
I am sorry to get you worried. It is just one of the possibilities. I took another look, and, with the number of people KCC made current through August, it actually looks quite exactly what they need to issue 3500 for Nepal. If any, there will be very very few of potential Nepalese that might be left out by the country limit.
Please do not worry.
 
I am sorry to get you worried. It is just one of the possibilities. I took another look, and, with the number of people KCC made current through August, it actually looks quite exactly what they need to issue 3500 for Nepal. If any, there will be very very few of potential Nepalese that might be left out by the country limit.
Please do not worry.
Hi Sensei-san,
You dont have to be sorry, you all are doing great updating us. Well, i was worried till my number was not current, once it became current I am worried if I will be able to make it. I have been trying to play around with the stats for Nepal, thank you for checking it. I hope my field office is good. I hope I wont be the very few left out. it is amazing though, so much Nepalese CN in just 7000 something for AS.
 
hello, I know I said I won't write again...but my case is on ceac in Transit for a week..no update to Ready..does that matter? And no 2NL so far ..
 
hello, I know I said I won't write again...but my case is on ceac in Transit for a week..no update to Ready..does that matter? And no 2NL so far ..
From what I've red the more experienced members say as long as it's in transit you're ok. In transit means you have a date scheduled/assigned that has been passed on to your embassy it's just a matter of the embassy being slow in updating the system to say they received your case. As for the 2NL's no one received it yet so as you can guess it's still all normal, you'll know when they start rolling out and if you don't get one then you can start looking into the matter.
 
From what I've red the more experienced members say as long as it's in transit you're ok. In transit means you have a date scheduled/assigned that has been passed on to your embassy it's just a matter of the embassy being slow in updating the system to say they received your case. As for the 2NL's no one received it yet so as you can guess it's still all normal, you'll know when they start rolling out and if you don't get one then you can start looking into the matter.
ok thank you
 
I am sorry to get you worried. It is just one of the possibilities. I took another look, and, with the number of people KCC made current through August, it actually looks quite exactly what they need to issue 3500 for Nepal. If any, there will be very very few of potential Nepalese that might be left out by the country limit.
Please do not worry.
Right, KCC steers Nepal through CN progression limits, as published in the VB. After that folks from Nepal, like ROA and Iran, daw from the DV AS pool - that presumably won't be exhausted until the very end of September. Hence, no higher risk for Current folks from Nepal when it comes to interview/visa issuing process in my book. This train of thought originated from AOS sub forum discussion and was therefore meant for AOS applicants from Nepal with later interview dates, as compared to CP.
 
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Look. The processing continues up to the end of September. The data we have (even the latest file) is basically stopped at early June. So - therte is June, July, August, and September processing yet to hit the CEAC data. KCC will be estimating and predicting based on better information that we have - information that we have to "deduce". So - the "wait and see" answer is the only accurate answer that can be given.

I did however write an article that explains how we can guesstimate - and gives some good clues to my thoughts. That article is here -

In that article I demonstrate how EU is pretty close to its final number already - perhaps even at its final number. So - you can read that as a guesstimate - BUT to be certain you must W&S.

Thank you for the answer Britsimon. I did read your article and I`m aware of the fact that I have to wait and see [well I`ve been doing that for the whole period since I found out that a CN has been "attached" to my name]. I`m also aware of the fact that you and the others are just having some data and not all of it from CEAC [and the fact that that you`re doing this out of good will]. My question was more to see if the last CEAC update gave you more info which I can`t read into most probably. Once again thanks for the answer, and sorry if my question caused any kind of inconvenience.
 
Right, KCC steers Nepal through CN progression limits, as published in the VB. After that folks from Nepal, like ROA and Iran, daw from the DV AS pool - that presumably won't be exhausted until the very end of September. Hence, no higher risk for Current folks from Nepal when it comes to interview/visa issuing process in my book. This train of thought originated from AOS sub forum discussion and was therefore meant for AOS applicants from Nepal with later interview dates, as compared to CP.
Is this in your Talmud? How about the 7% country limit in your book?
 
Is this in your Talmud? How about the 7% country limit in your book?
No, no Talmud needed for that :)
As you already correctly pointed out, Sensei-san, "with the number of people KCC made current through August, it actually looks quite exactly what they need to issue 3500 for Nepal". This simply suggested what I had said above: "KCC steers Nepal through CN progression limits, as published in the VB", hence you and I seem to be aligned on the matter, as far as I can see... ;)
 
No, no Talmud needed for that :)
As you already correctly pointed out, Sensei-san, "with the number of people KCC made current through August, it actually looks quite exactly what they need to issue 3500 for Nepal". This simply suggested what I had said above: "KCC steers Nepal through CN progression limits, as published in the VB", hence you and I seem to be aligned on the matter, as far as I can see... ;)
Yes. That is in ceac, which AOSs are not. We do not know how many of them out there, anyhow I would want to have an interview earlier rather than later if I were a Nepalese Jew.
 
Yes. That is in ceac, which AOSs are not. We do not know how many of them out there, anyhow I would want to have an interview earlier rather than later if I were a Nepalese Jew.
Sure, an earlier interview date is always better, no discussion here. Yet please remember, the consideration started on the AOS thread and was solely related to the question whether an AOS candidate from Nepal, who became Current for June, could possibly have a distinct disadvantage by having his interview date in July, August or September, i.e. later than would have been the case through CP processing. The preliminary answer to this distinct question was NO, as long as the the DV AS visa "pool" would not be exhausted, which is unlikely to occur before the second half of September in my opinion. Finally, through proper KCC management of published VB numbers for Nepal, which certainly will be cut-off or only show very small increase for September if any, KCC can rather easily ensure that Nepal stays within maximum DV country limits for all Nepalese.
 
Sure, an earlier interview date is always better, no discussion here. Yet please remember, the consideration started on the AOS thread and was solely related to the question whether an AOS candidate from Nepal, who became Current for June, could possibly have a distinct disadvantage by having his interview date in July, August or September, i.e. later than would have been the case through CP processing. The preliminary answer to this distinct question was NO, as long as the the DV AS visa "pool" would not be exhausted, which is unlikely to occur before the second half of September in my opinion. Finally, through proper KCC management of published VB numbers for Nepal, which certainly will be cut-off or only show very small increase for September if any, KCC can rather easily ensure that Nepal stays within maximum DV country limits for all Nepalese.
My preliminary answer would be yes, they could possibly. I am not sure why keep bringing up Asian "pool", being unexhausted does not help against the country limit.
 
My preliminary answer would be yes, they could possibly. I am not sure why keep bringing up Asian "pool", being unexhausted does not help against the country limit.
Well, simply because KCC will make sure to only release as many Nepalese CN's, through country specific VB numbers, for Nepal to stay within the max DV limit/country. Makes sense?
For DV AS pool to "last" until second half of September, KCC continuously needs to monitor ROA progress in conjunction with Iran AP clearance, hence the late jump for the ROA sub-region during the DV year.
 
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Due to technical issues, the number of issued visas for Nepal is understated right now in ceac. However, we know they had about 2500 early this month, and that is excluding AOS (last year about 162 were potentially Nepalese AOSs). We also see that there are about 1000 Readies+APs. So July should be ok, August is risky.


Nepal won't hit the country limit in August. The August scheduled interviews are allocated a visa spot per selectee, so the only issue is when too many people turn up with undeclared new spouses, babies etc. BUT, even if there were to be no increase in VB numbers for Nepal for September, there would be visas issued for Nepal in September.
 
To be fair we should also quote the other side of the table. It was mentioned a couple of times that Britsimon "abandoned us". Here is another quote from the beholden guesstimate aficionados: "Thanks Simon 've crashed my dreams".

What is this post about?
 
Well, simply because KCC will make sure to only release as many Nepalese CN's, through country specific VB numbers, for Nepal to stay within the max DV limit/country. Makes sense?
For DV AS pool to "last" until second half of September, KCC continuously needs to monitor ROA progress in conjunction with Iran AP clearance, hence the late jump for the ROA sub-region during the DV year.
I still don't see how it affects the country limit.
 
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