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CEAC data update

On the CEAC status check site, what do the two digits following our case number mean? As an example: 2015AS1234 01 KDU. What does the "01" mean? I used to think it is the number of derivatives, but I don't think that's the case.
 
Lilliput said:
On the CEAC status check site, what do the two digits following our case number mean? As an example: 2015AS1234 01 KDU. What does the "01" mean? I used to think it is the number of derivatives, but I don't think that's the case.
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01 is principal
02 is spouse
03....0x are children
 
A winner from my country who's been on AP for a couple of weeks, his status went today to "Issued" and back again to "AP".
What could be happening?
 
NaraLB said:
A winner from my country who's been on AP for a couple of weeks, his status went today to "Issued" and back again to "AP".
What could be happening?
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The technical issues are obviously causing unusual update activity. This is only an issue if people constantly check their CEAC status - my advice would be not to look.
 
Sensei-san said:
If ceac could speak, it would have said: "Wait and see". I think.
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I understand that "wait and see" is the favorite quote around, but for the ones that don`t understand the CEAC data perfectly, could you explain how far away from reaching the quota EU is? Would you expect an increase of the cut off in the last VB? [I also understand that it`s not easy to do, but maybe a "guesstimate"? what is your guts telling you? ]
Thanks!
 
BlueRaven said:
I understand that "wait and see" is the favorite quote around, but for the ones that don`t understand the CEAC data perfectly, could you explain how far away from reaching the quota EU is? Would you expect an increase of the cut off in the last VB? [I also understand that it`s not easy to do, but maybe a "guesstimate"? what is your guts telling you? ]
Thanks!
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Look. The processing continues up to the end of September. The data we have (even the latest file) is basically stopped at early June. So - therte is June, July, August, and September processing yet to hit the CEAC data. KCC will be estimating and predicting based on better information that we have - information that we have to "deduce". So - the "wait and see" answer is the only accurate answer that can be given.

I did however write an article that explains how we can guesstimate - and gives some good clues to my thoughts. That article is here - http://britsimonsays.com/am-i-safe/

In that article I demonstrate how EU is pretty close to its final number already - perhaps even at its final number. So - you can read that as a guesstimate - BUT to be certain you must W&S.
 
BlueRaven said:
I understand that "wait and see" is the favorite quote around, but for the ones that don`t understand the CEAC data perfectly, could you explain how far away from reaching the quota EU is? Would you expect an increase of the cut off in the last VB? [I also understand that it`s not easy to do, but maybe a "guesstimate"? what is your guts telling you? ]
Thanks!
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"wait and see" isn't simply a matter of "favorite quote around" here, it happens to be the best response given the information that is available to work with.
 
EURO2014 said:
You are right of course, he became Current in June. I simply wondered whether he could possibly face a higher risk resulting from a (potentially) later interview date in July or August, as compared to a June CP interview date. Then again, KCC limits CN progress for Nepal not necessarily available AS visa quota, hence he theoretically should not be facing a distinct disadvantage from a later interview date, as long as DV AS visa numbers themselves won't run out, should he? Just thinking aloud...
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Due to technical issues, the number of issued visas for Nepal is understated right now in ceac. However, we know they had about 2500 early this month, and that is excluding AOS (last year about 162 were potentially Nepalese AOSs). We also see that there are about 1000 Readies+APs. So July should be ok, August is risky.
 
Sensei-san said:
Due to technical issues, the number of issued visas for Nepal is understated right now in ceac. However, we know they had about 2500 early this month, and that is excluding AOS (last year about 162 were potentially Nepalese AOSs). We also see that there are about 1000 Readies+APs. So July should be ok, August is risky.
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Is this only apply to Nepal or rest of AS? I'm from Hong Kong..does it make a difference? Or still gonna be risky if I going to have my interview in August? Thank you!
 
Sensei-san said:
Due to technical issues, the number of issued visas for Nepal is understated right now in ceac. However, we know they had about 2500 early this month, and that is excluding AOS (last year about 162 were potentially Nepalese AOSs). We also see that there are about 1000 Readies+APs. So July should be ok, August is risky.
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!!! I am current for aug!
 
Sensei-san said:
Due to technical issues, the number of issued visas for Nepal is understated right now in ceac. However, we know they had about 2500 early this month, and that is excluding AOS (last year about 162 were potentially Nepalese AOSs). We also see that there are about 1000 Readies+APs. So July should be ok, August is risky.
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HEy,
What do you mean by readies and AP? This has got me worried, I am from NEpal and current for Aug
 
To be fair we should also quote the other side of the table. It was mentioned a couple of times that Britsimon "abandoned us". Here is another quote from the beholden guesstimate aficionados: "Thanks Simon 've crashed my dreams".
 
Dv2015as3xxx said:
Is this only apply to Nepal or rest of AS? I'm from Hong Kong..does it make a difference? Or still gonna be risky if I going to have my interview in August? Thank you!
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Other Asian countries are not in danger of hitting the country limit this year. Unless together with the sanctions for Iran, they will also lift whatever is causing APs for Iran.
 
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