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CEAC data update

Britsimon said:
There is no law that says a country cannot take more than 50k visas from the DV lottery OR from other sources.
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I'm sure you know this Simon, but I think what Siliconslinger mistakenly refers to here, is the rule that if a country has more than 50,000 immigrants in the previous 5 years, that country is ineligible from participating in DV. But of course they only count visas from family based, or employment based visas for that limit. DV, refugee, etc. don't count towards the 50K.
 
Martin9 said:
I'm sure you know this Simon, but I think what Siliconslinger mistakenly refers to here, is the rule that if a country has more than 50,000 immigrants in the previous 5 years, that country is ineligible from participating in DV. But of course they only count visas from family based, or employment based visas for that limit. DV, refugee, etc. don't count towards the 50K.
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Yup. He was putting 2 and 2 together and coming up with 50000.
 
Hi simon
As u know some iranian people who were in AP finish that and got an email from embassies to get their visas!!!

Do u think its a sign that iranian people has more chance to get visa than 2014 (like 2013)?!
 
Darepit_2000 said:
Hi simon
As u know some iranian people who were in AP finish that and got an email from embassies to get their visas!!!

Do u think its a sign that iranian people has more chance to get visa than 2014 (like 2013)?!
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If the report is accurate and the processing continues that way, then yes - Iran could take more visas. Whether they can process fast enough to get to 2013 levels or not is another thing - we can only wait and see....
 
The thing is even if the process time became as fast as 2013 at the end there would be less Iranian visa issued. Lets not forget that in 2013 there are 6029 Iranian winners and in 2015 there are 4992 Iranian winners. So if everything goes as 2013 (and as everything I meant processing time, bulletin, Introduction of DS-260 and...) there would be 3260 Iranian visas to be issued. But we all know that Bulletin is slower than 2013 and DS-260 backlog is not a myth also It seems that DS-260 introduction reduces the number of complete forms in Iran but It is a little early to be sure of that effect.
In my opinion if AP speeds , best case scenario (or worst case depends on which side you are) there are 3000 Iranian DV lottery visas for 2015 .
(FYI in 2013 there are 3700 visa for Iranian Issued and about 200 Iranians with finished AP couldn't receive their visa because there are no visas left).

PS to britsimon:
1- Abudhabi website updated and now all interviewees before January 20th 2015 process is finished (33 cases 68 individuals). You could check their numbers in Abudhabiivo.net if you want the list let me know. Only one case remains in AP.
2- Unfortunately I could not get an official data from Ankara embassy because Ankara doesn't updates its website and only informs the winners by mail. Hope they update their website soon. But that is no biggie since the deadline for visa issuance is the end of april and a month from now we could have the exact number of visas.
3- We could only estimate the number of applicants who informed by embassy to bring their passport. The number of cases in first three months who were in AP was 119 and 222 individual. In our website (Mohajersara.com) 28 people informed us they recieved an email by embassy to bring their passport and 5 who said that they did not receive such a letter. that means 84% of cases or 100 cases( 187 individual). The number seems to be right. If you check last year results about 10% of the early cases remain in AP and never get cleared!
4- about 8 cases in Yerevan embassy informed to bring their passport as I told you before. I know It is not much but if you check you found out that there are only 10 applicant's who interviewed and were in AP in Yerevan before January 2015.

DS-260 backlog and VB progression resulted in late interview of majority of Iranian cases. There were more interviews in January February and March Compared to first three months and the numbers are still growing. In fact about 400 cases (800 Iranian individuals) are in AP but less than half of them interviewed in 2014. It would be fair not to compare aforementioned cases (141 cases and 271 individuals) to half of all AP cases (or new AP cases for the coming months) and only analyze them by the time of interview.
 
behdadk said:
The thing is even if the process time became as fast as 2013 at the end there would be less Iranian visa issued. Lets not forget that in 2013 there are 6029 Iranian winners and in 2015 there are 4992 Iranian winners. So if everything goes as 2013 (and as everything I meant processing time, bulletin, Introduction of DS-260 and...) there would be 3260 Iranian visas to be issued. But we all know that Bulletin is slower than 2013 and DS-260 backlog is not a myth also It seems that DS-260 introduction reduces the number of complete forms in Iran but It is a little early to be sure of that effect.
In my opinion if AP speeds , best case scenario (or worst case depends on which side you are) there are 3000 Iranian DV lottery visas for 2015 .
(FYI in 2013 there are 3700 visa for Iranian Issued and about 200 Iranians with finished AP couldn't receive their visa because there are no visas left).

PS to britsimon:
1- Abudhabi website updated and now all interviewees before January 20th 2015 process is finished (33 cases 68 individuals). You could check their numbers in Abudhabiivo.net if you want the list let me know. Only one case remains in AP.
2- Unfortunately I could not get an official data from Ankara embassy because Ankara doesn't updates its website and only informs the winners by mail. Hope they update their website soon. But that is no biggie since the deadline for visa issuance is the end of april and a month from now we could have the exact number of visas.
3- We could only estimate the number of applicants who informed by embassy to bring their passport. The number of cases in first three months who were in AP was 119 and 222 individual. In our website (Mohajersara.com) 28 people informed us they recieved an email by embassy to bring their passport and 5 who said that they did not receive such a letter. that means 84% of cases or 100 cases( 187 individual). The number seems to be right. If you check last year results about 10% of the early cases remain in AP and never get cleared!
4- about 8 cases in Yerevan embassy informed to bring their passport as I told you before. I know It is not much but if you check you found out that there are only 10 applicant's who interviewed and were in AP in Yerevan before January 2015.

DS-260 backlog and VB progression resulted in late interview of majority of Iranian cases. There were more interviews in January February and March Compared to first three months and the numbers are still growing. In fact about 400 cases (800 Iranian individuals) are in AP but less than half of them interviewed in 2014. It would be fair not to compare aforementioned cases (141 cases and 271 individuals) to half of all AP cases (or new AP cases for the coming months) and only analyze them by the time of interview.
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Good information - it is useful to know the background behind your statements. The 2013 results are not quite as telling as you think. The limit for Iran was reached (breached in fact) early in September. Tee embassies started putting cases on AP, and by September 20 announced that no further visas would be issued for Iran - so all the cases in AP, all those put on AP in September and all remaining September interviews lost out. So - the gross pool number was somewhat less than the 6029.

Based on the cases you have detailed - we should start seeing the increased speed in the CEAC data soon. Cases that started AP in January will be in the CEAC data before their interview, and we have a couple of extracts in mid April. I have all the extracts in a database and can get pretty close to an accurate AP duration for those (and any other) AP case that lasts more than a few days. I'll be looking at the story so far this weekend - and with the next couple of extracts we should be able to paint an accurate picture.
 
angelusj said:
Sometimes, ignorance is bliss...how do you treat a child who is throwing a tantrum? same thing applicable to unreasonable whiners :)
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You let him go to his room, deal with trantumiosis there then come back to the test of the family.It works magic.
 
NaraLB said:
I think Darepit means the cleared Iranians AP in US Embassy Ankara. I have been monitoring the site for a couple of days, and today 67 CNs that were on AP were approved, bringing to a total of 85 cleared Iranian AP in Ankara.
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Cool - thanks.
 
SusieQQQ said:
You're right, I have added him to my ignore lists so I no longer see his rubbish.

It indeed was not good for me today to have to relive certain experiences and feelings.

Actually it was only Sloner before...maybe I should un-ignore Sloner as he seems to have been amusing recently judging by other posts ... Not good to have more than one person ignored at a time ;)
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You made me did out Sloner's posts. Yes you can fee him on missing out due to high CN.
Plus B.Simon found away of parrying with him
 
Hi, anyone knows how many visas issued for DV 2015 for Egypt until now ? Or how we can know?
Thanks
 
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Sam2015 said:
Hi, anyone knows how many visas issued for DV 2015 for Egypt until now ? Or how we can know?
Thanks
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You can check that in the last CEAC file - here. It shows interviews by embassy - so we cannot be specific about Egypt per se - only interviews at CRO (Cairo)
 
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