Hello, everyone,
*** THIS IS JUST MY PERSONAL OPINION***
I would like to share with you about my discovery. I’m pretty sure this is how it works. You can estimate your approval date using the method I about to tell you (If you already know, please pardon me for repost, sorry). Thanks to everyone who provided their info in the tracker. That was how I saw a pattern. Here goes,
First, forget about which state you’re from, because it is irrelevant. Second, identify the second portion of your ETA case number (located between the two dashes). This number started with either 04XXX or 05XXX. All cases with the same number are stored inside the same box. I called it box number.
In my opinion, the concept of first come first served is within one (1) box. They tried to certify the case based on the PD of that “particular box”. I believe each box has the same (or close) quantity of cases. Each officer grabs one box to work on until finish. Now, check the tracker and find your box number (if available); and see if there is any approved case. If so, you are 50% closer, you shall hear from them pretty soon, unless something is wrong.
If you don’t see your box number, it doesn’t mean that your box is not open yet. It just means “may be”. However, if you see a few or a lot of people with the same box number but not a single case being approved, the chances are your box is still sitting there - UNOPEN.
To estimate your time, compare your case with others under the same category – RIR or Regular, with the same box number. RIR and Regular go different line. Then, find out when you replied your 45 days letter (receive letter date is not that important, it just tells you your case is sitting on the “45 days” tray.). The officer will continues processing your case after he/she received the letter. Some people replied fast and some slow. If info unavailable in the tracker, make reasonable assumption. Conservatively, assume one month is used to process two month PD, ie. March process PD from May and June, 04. and so on.
Tips:
1. If two cases with different PD and but the DOL received the letters pretty much the same time (within 1.5 months / 45 days range). The PD plays an important role. First come first served. (Note that small difference in PD is acceptable).
2. If two cases with different PD and but the DOL received the second letter more than two months after the first letter. Then, the “DOL received date” will be the key factor. That could be the reason why you saw some approved case with the new/latest PD. If you haven’t received the letter, “patient” is all I can say.
3. If two cases with the same PD, needless to say, the “DOL received date” will be the primary factor.
Other factors, such as the processing speed and skill of the officer(s) are very important. If he takes vacation or sick for a week, that mean the box is untouched. If your case take longer than 3 months of your predicted date, then, something is not right, either your side or their side.
Each box number contains different range of PD. When we saw some approved with PD June, 04 (latest), don’t get too excited. Check your box number first. If the number same, then you can start plan your celebration, unless accident happens, such as paper work incorrect or the officer is absence.
That’s all. Again, this is strictly my personal view.
