Eucn
Registered Users (C)
The spirit of Pitty-bull is strong with this one
These are definitely not the droids we are looking for
August visa bulletin the final.
- Thread starter vladek
- Start date
These are definitely not the droids we are looking for
kamale
New Member
My very first post, yey! I am a DV2015 inductee.
I have gone through several posts and am elated at the good news ahead for most DV2014 winners. This is because folks who are current in August are already getting CP interviews in JULY. Maybe our friends at KCC are looking to cover as much ground as possible before sept 30. This is good and it keeps hope alive.
Don't give up, don't stop believing, we are almost there. it is not over until it is really over.
I have gone through several posts and am elated at the good news ahead for most DV2014 winners. This is because folks who are current in August are already getting CP interviews in JULY. Maybe our friends at KCC are looking to cover as much ground as possible before sept 30. This is good and it keeps hope alive.
Don't give up, don't stop believing, we are almost there. it is not over until it is really over.
MalcomX
Active Member
hahahahaha .... chabba hathi- 3reftek
( translation: the sky is blue)
vladek
Active Member
Ok tell me are you current for august?Hi..Britsimon & vladek
I got a reply from KCC like this,
"Your forms have been received and pending further embassy review for the continuation of your visa processing."
Does it means anything positive to receive interview letter?
Because the email that you recieved from kcc, is just a generic answer,to say that they recieved you forms...
Stalin23
Member
No..I'm not current for august but my case no is around 16.2k.
"Your forms have been received and pending further embassy review for the continuation of your visa processing"
Does that highlighted sentence means that my case is under processing for september interview(current)?
"Your forms have been received and pending further embassy review for the continuation of your visa processing"
Does that highlighted sentence means that my case is under processing for september interview(current)?
Kayend
Active Member
No, this is just a general reply and right now DOS has not release the visa slots for Sept yet so no embassies will do anything until KCC inform them for interview scheduling after DOS release the visa slots to KCC.
vladek
Active Member
Like kayend said, its just an automatic reply.
But your number will surely be current for september imo.
Good luck
vladek
Active Member
hello peeps,
Lately we noticed that AF is receiving 2k issued visas per month,according to rafik's data.
So at this pace we will sit with 21k issued up to the 30th september2014.
If the APs generates 1.5k visas,AF will reach 22.5k which is less than the usual ''quota''.
IF and IF my guess estimates become true, with a density at around 80 cases per 1000 CN range from 69300 cut-off and upwards. Which implies that there is a considerable fall-out (second-holes) at the late AF CNs range, and excluding nigeria and ethiopia plus egypt will be cut-off at 37k ...
1- scenario, with 22.5k quota :
AF 95000 except egypt 37000
2- scenario, with 23.5k :
AF 106000 . except egypt 37000
3- scenario, 24k quota :
AF current, egypt 37000.
Unused Nacara visas will play a major role for AF 2014 DV destiny, because EU progress has shown a an increase its quota, but none of us knows where did that same increase came from...
My self I'm hoping for the last scenario.
Only 20 days to go! And see KFC final screw up!!!
Lately we noticed that AF is receiving 2k issued visas per month,according to rafik's data.
So at this pace we will sit with 21k issued up to the 30th september2014.
If the APs generates 1.5k visas,AF will reach 22.5k which is less than the usual ''quota''.
IF and IF my guess estimates become true, with a density at around 80 cases per 1000 CN range from 69300 cut-off and upwards. Which implies that there is a considerable fall-out (second-holes) at the late AF CNs range, and excluding nigeria and ethiopia plus egypt will be cut-off at 37k ...
1- scenario, with 22.5k quota :
AF 95000 except egypt 37000
2- scenario, with 23.5k :
AF 106000 . except egypt 37000
3- scenario, 24k quota :
AF current, egypt 37000.
Unused Nacara visas will play a major role for AF 2014 DV destiny, because EU progress has shown a an increase its quota, but none of us knows where did that same increase came from...
My self I'm hoping for the last scenario.
Only 20 days to go! And see KFC final screw up!!!
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Seems pretty likely numbers. It seems pretty certain that EU will have taken an increased proportion of the visas, so that means scenario 1 is the most likely. I do think late AP cases will simply run out of time this year - there won't be the extent of late AP resolutions we would normally expect. I hope Rafik gets in - so according to your calculations that needs about 23k visas.
Vladek, Simon
I think (or hope i don't know) we should take into account embassies capacity, At this stage countries like Cameroun or Kenya had density around 20/1k, it is clear that the remaining people from second heavy weight countries surpass their embassies capacity that's why I thought of special cut off for those countries in the final month. And if special cut off is imposed for those countries, others will benefit from this.
I wish KCC will take regional quota filling the first priority, otherwise special cut-off for the all region will be the easiest way to go.
I think (or hope i don't know) we should take into account embassies capacity, At this stage countries like Cameroun or Kenya had density around 20/1k, it is clear that the remaining people from second heavy weight countries surpass their embassies capacity that's why I thought of special cut off for those countries in the final month. And if special cut off is imposed for those countries, others will benefit from this.
I wish KCC will take regional quota filling the first priority, otherwise special cut-off for the all region will be the easiest way to go.
About Regional quota, here is the part in FAM 42.33 document
"
Using available estimates, the Attorney General must then determine the
population of each of the six regions (excluding the population of any high
admission foreign state) and use those totals to determine the apportionment
of the 55,000 worldwide DV limitations. Quotas for the six regions will be
established. Natives of these regions compete for that portion of the total
established for that region. Any unused portion of a regional quota is
distributed proportionally among the other regions. High admission states are
excluded entirely from the apportionment. No one country’s nationals may
receive more than 7% of the available visas in any one year.
"
I think it is clear that unused quota will be distributed to others, but in DV 2014, all regions are over subscribed, and I think Raevsky note about EU quota will be exhausted is the most likely scenario.
"
Using available estimates, the Attorney General must then determine the
population of each of the six regions (excluding the population of any high
admission foreign state) and use those totals to determine the apportionment
of the 55,000 worldwide DV limitations. Quotas for the six regions will be
established. Natives of these regions compete for that portion of the total
established for that region. Any unused portion of a regional quota is
distributed proportionally among the other regions. High admission states are
excluded entirely from the apportionment. No one country’s nationals may
receive more than 7% of the available visas in any one year.
"
I think it is clear that unused quota will be distributed to others, but in DV 2014, all regions are over subscribed, and I think Raevsky note about EU quota will be exhausted is the most likely scenario.
vladek
Active Member
It really make sense to me too ! If they put the second heavy countries under a special cut off, if the embassies cannot cope with the volume of the interviews left for the last month!
But on other hand if the country limit is not about to be hit for those same countries, I doubt kcc will do so!
Or may be they will accelerate the capacity ?!
Britsimon
Super Moderator
So Rafik - you see EU hitting a wall - in August or September? How about a visa quota - any idea on the number?
Simon, you just answer my first post question I think/hope, it was I hope, hahaha
I had no clear idea about EU quota, but I do think 1 or 2K more than last year is possible as I share the idea of NACARA quota, It's all about the density at this stage, the issued visa and the region success rate. To be honest I didn't look at EU numbers closely, to understand the distribution of the remaining cases.
vladek
Active Member
My self I think, in last year they did relocate the unsued nacara visas!
If we look at iran with 3741 issued visas, 2013 had 53500 global visas. So the 3500 came from nacara. And 2500 were wasted!
So if the same amout is allocated for dv2014 we will see a big suprise at the end
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Fair enough. I'm just thinking that if EU is allowed to continue at current pace, they might well be pushing over 20k visas (3.5k more than last year) Whilst some can come from NACARA, it is also clear that AF would be hit by EU going that far. EU has been the only region to exceed expectations this year - it is ahead and likely to stay that way.