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August visa bulletin the final.

Britsimon said:
Sadly, yes.

I expect a small increase above the 40150. Hard to imagine it going much over 45k.
Click to expand...
I am having a hard time following you all guys predicting numbers or understanding the way you make predictions. I do not know the process I guess, so I am very confused. The only thing I know is that I was pretty much sure since the beginning that having selected so many more entries would have meant there were visas for everyone, or at least for majority. That KCC realized along the years what is the proportion between those who are selected and those who go through with the process and they made a realistic and more accurate calculation allowing last year to select more entries. For 2014 I heard about EU with CNs at 52,xxx, maybe there are some even higher. At this point, being less than 1500 CNs away for EU, I do not even know what to think if I do not make it, and I feel quite bad for all those higher than me.
 
Well that means an increase of abt 30k in Sept VB, lets hope the DV 2014 goddess listens to you & our pleas too!

I did not understant your first phrase ”well your number is no issue”
 
Gidmog said:
Well that means an increase of abt 30k in Sept VB, lets hope the DV 2014 goddess listens to you & our pleas too!

I did not understant your first phrase ”well your number is no issue”
Click to expand...

”well your number is no issue” means your number (AF76XXXwill go current - I would say with 99% certainty.
 
one said:
I am having a hard time following you all guys predicting numbers or understanding the way you make predictions. I do not know the process I guess, so I am very confused. The only thing I know is that I was pretty much sure since the beginning that having selected so many more entries would have meant there were visas for everyone, or at least for majority. That KCC realized along the years what is the proportion between those who are selected and those who go through with the process and they made a realistic and more accurate calculation allowing last year to select more entries. For 2014 I heard about EU with CNs at 52,xxx, maybe there are some even higher. At this point, being less than 1500 CNs away for EU, I do not even know what to think if I do not make it, and I feel quite bad for all those higher than me.
Click to expand...
The key issue we are all facing is that DV-2014 and DV-2015 cycles are not comparable with previous years, in the sense that previously all large regions became current no later then August of September, suggesting that there were sufficient visa numbers available to satisfy demand. One could even argue that in some regions, i.e. Europe, there was too low a number of lottery winners for previous years, resulting that participants from those regions could not effectively compete at the end of cycle. In any case: this effectively changed starting with DV-2014, as the number of winners increased significantly, and we now might well face a situation where the demand (lottery winners) will effectively exceed the number of available visa. This is a new situation and 2014 might therefore become a reasonable good predictor for DV-2015 outcomes, yet nobody will, with some reasonable confidence, be able to predict final DV-2014 numbers for September. Of course guesses, estimates or personal predictions are possible and rather interesting, yet will hardly be able to affect individual outcomes. Good luck and very best wishes to everyone waiting patiently for the coming last round!
 
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Hi everyone!...
I'm from Sri Lanka and My CN is 169**
Do i still have a chance to get DV visa?
Thanks...
 
From users and past experiences, when the consulate/embassy cancels an interview because they run out of available visas, does this happen last minute (like even 24 hrs before your tentative interview) or do they tell you in advance? I wonder once you plan and book your travel and accommodation if at least you have knowledge of the cancellation in advance...or maybe there is no way of knowing it?
 
Sloner
My signature was edit by simon he high jacked my account lolol
So this is teat post to try and see if my account is fully operational :)
 
one said:
From users and past experiences, when the consulate/embassy cancels an interview because they run out of available visas, does this happen last minute (like even 24 hrs before your tentative interview) or do they tell you in advance? I wonder once you plan and book your travel and accommodation if at least you have knowledge of the cancellation in advance...or maybe there is no way of knowing it?
Click to expand...

I'm sure they try to minimise that sort of issue - so if it happens it will be a genuine mistake. That is one reason why they won't go current unless they have available visas. As for previous experiences - there are not many with direct experience of that - not recently anyway.
 
one said:
From users and past experiences, when the consulate/embassy cancels an interview because they run out of available visas, does this happen last minute (like even 24 hrs before your tentative interview) or do they tell you in advance? I wonder once you plan and book your travel and accommodation if at least you have knowledge of the cancellation in advance...or maybe there is no way of knowing it?
Click to expand...

It's hardly ever happened but it seems there is no real notice - on the rare occasions they announce "no more interviews". So if you were the next day you have no notice but if you are a week or two later you do get some.

EURO2014 said:
The key issue we are all facing is that DV-2014 and DV-2015 cycles are not comparable with previous years, in the sense that previously all large regions became current no later then August of September, suggesting that there were sufficient visa numbers available to satisfy demand. One could even argue that in some regions, i.e. Europe, there was too low a number of lottery winners for previous years, resulting that participants from those regions could not effectively compete at the end of cycle. In any case: this effectively changed starting with DV-2014, as the number of winners increased significantly, and we now might well face a situation where the demand (lottery winners) will effectively exceed the number of available visa. This is a new situation and 2014 might therefore become a reasonable good predictor for DV-2015 outcomes, yet nobody will, with some reasonable confidence, be able to predict final DV-2014 numbers for September. Of course guesses, estimates or personal predictions are possible and rather interesting, yet will hardly be able to affect individual outcomes. Good luck and very best wishes to everyone waiting patiently for the coming last round!
Click to expand...

If you look at the link posted with the history, it is not a "new" situation - it is just what has generally become the norm after the financial crisis. It certainly wasn't unusual to see cutoffs before, though it didn't happen every year.
 
SusieQQQ said:
It's hardly ever happened but it seems there is no real notice - on the rare occasions they announce "no more interviews". So if you were the next day you have no notice but if you are a week or two later you do get some.



If you look at the link posted with the history, it is not a "new" situation - it is just what has generally become the norm after the financial crisis. It certainly wasn't unusual to see cutoffs before, though it didn't happen every year.
Click to expand...

Yes, undoubtedly - cut-offs for EU region occurred for example in 2000, 2003, 2004, and 2005 and current no later than August in any given year since 2007. I was referring specifically to the noticeably higher number of DV selectees for 2014 and in 2015, creating a kind of new form of lottery within the lottery, I guess. Hope the table comes through unscrambled:

Green Card Lottery Cut-Off Numbers for European Winners (EU) - Example





1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
201220132014
Oct




5351
14016
14000
4250
8100
8000
10850
3000
3450
5800
6600
9100
9600
850057008000

Nov




7441
14200
14100
4900
14000
10100
10850
3900
5700
9200
11000
9500
125001100070009800

Dec




7441
14200
14200
5880
15850
13900
13000
5500
7700
11100
12900
12400
1360013500925012500

Jan




8694
14200
14300
6535
18000
15000
14900
6800
9900
13600
15400
19750
15400165001095013200

Feb




11710
14200
14400
8100
19125
15600
16600
8300
10400
15300
17100
22400
17600220001340016700

Mar




14490
14980
14400
10150
22500
?
17150
9850
13175
17600
19800
24700
20450265001620020050

Apr




16350
16170
14700
12800
26250
?
18200
11225
15100
20625
20800
26300
23200320002285025400

May




18700
18000
16550
15150
29550
20000
20000
12850
16000
23500
24900
29250
27800400002750030700

Jun




20460
19500
20000
16600
33000
21300
20500
14200
19000
26000
28000
31000
29450current3100032950

Jul




22340
21000
24000
19000
36000
23350
20500
15250
23000
29000
current
3200033000current3300036300

Aug




25100
21000
28000
current
37200
25900
20500
16000
current
current
current.
currentcurrentcurrentcurrent40150

Sep




current
21030
current
current
39100
28700
20600
current
current
current
current
currentcurrentcurrentcurrent ?
 
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