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August visa bulletin the final.

MalcomX said:
it's not easy to predict for Africa believe me, we don't know really what will happen at the end, if Europe continue like that, they will have like 4 to 5k more visas comparing to last year, it seems that Africa will pay that difference... in this case Africa will not have more then 85k, I assume that the density will remain the same of course, if not we can have 90k or a bit more ... for me the last VB (69300) is a real catastrophe ... let's hope that the KCC will act differently next month and give a chance to maximum people ....
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Density declines in Europe and Africa, so they are faster. Do not forget the regional quota. Europe goes to its quota, why did she look at the other regions?
 
To my surprise, Iran seems to max out at 8.1k, leading to a big jump in August Asia cutoff. Another observation from the latest CEAC data is that issue and AP rate of Iran did not change much from the data extracted on Apr 2 to Jun 3. In this 2-month period, the issue rate of Iran from CN 1-4400 only increased from 34% to 39%. Based on the latest information, here are some possible scenarios:

Assumed that issue rate of Nepal and the rest of Asia is 95% and 70% respectively
1) Total visa: 53.5k, Asia quota (18%): 9.6k, Iran issue: rate 50%
Nepal: 10.1k
Rest of Asia: 19.6k

2) Total visa: 53.5k, Asia quota (18%): 9.6k, Iran issue: rate 45%
Nepal: 10.1k
Rest of Asia: 21.0k

3) Total visa: 53.5k, Asia quota (18%): 9.6k, Iran issue: rate 55%
Nepal: 10.1k
Rest of Asia: 18.6k

4) Total visa: 53.5k, Asia quota (19%): 10.1k, Iran issue: rate 50%
Nepal: 10.1k
Rest of Asia: 22.5k

5) Total visa: 54.5k, Asia quota (18%): 9.8k, Iran issue: rate 50%
Nepal: 10.4k
Rest of Asia: 20.2k

I believe that Asia will have a big jump in Sep or become current. Having said that, my last estimation was wrong because I did not expect that Iran maxes out at 8.1k. So please bear in mind that this is only my best estimate based on the latest CEAC data. There are a lot of unknowns e.g. how many visa will be issued for Iran, how many visas are available, etc. So please don’t blame me if I’m wrong again.
 
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KingKong said:
To my surprise, Iran seems to max out at 8.1k, leading to a big jump in August Asia cutoff. Another observation from the latest CEAC data is that issue and AP rate of Iran did not change much from the data extracted on Apr 2 to Jun 3. In this 2-month period, the issue rate of Iran from CN 1-4400 only increased from 34% to 39%. Based on the latest information, here are some possible scenarios:

Assumed that issue rate of Nepal and the rest of Asia is 95% and 70% respectively
1) Total visa: 53.5k, Asia quota (18%): 9.6k, Iran issue: rate 50%
Nepal: 10.1k
Rest of Asia: 19.6k

2) Total visa: 53.5k, Asia quota (18%): 9.6k, Iran issue: rate 45%
Nepal: 10.1k
Rest of Asia: 21.0k

3) Total visa: 53.5k, Asia quota (18%): 9.6k, Iran issue: rate 55%
Nepal: 10.1k
Rest of Asia: 18.6k

4) Total visa: 53.5k, Asia quota (19%): 10.1k, Iran issue: rate 50%
Nepal: 10.1k
Rest of Asia: 22.5k

5) Total visa: 54.5k, Asia quota (18%): 9.8k, Iran issue: rate 50%
Nepal: 10.4k
Rest of Asia: 20.2k

I believe that Asia will have a big jump in Sep or become current. Having said that, my last estimation was wrong because I did not expect that Iran maxes out at 8.1k. So please bear in mind that this is only my best estimate based on the latest CEAC data. There are a lot of unknowns e.g. how many visa will be issued for Iran, how many visas are available, etc. So please don’t blame me if I’m wrong again.
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Your way of calculating are assuming KCC already know the Iran AP success rate by end of June. Remember, by end of this month, DOS will come out the last batch of visa slots for all regions and the only data that DOS has is up to June. So they have to make some educational guess what will happen in July and Aug. That's is why I am going to track the AP progress and late comers changes (mean those more than 2 months old Ready cases) because this is the data DOS will use to estimate how many more selectees it needs in the final month.

If the progress is going well, DOS might assume higher success rate for late comers and AP cases then they much put lesser visa slots which also mean lower CN for Sept. Based on the data so far, Asia already have 10k or so selectees in July and Asia quota is only around 10k, if we add another 1.5k selectees from Aug it will roughly have 11.5k. I think Asia need additional 1.5k selectees in Sept and assuming 3k or so fall out. Of course it will be much higher or lower it will depend on AP clearing rate in this month because AP clearing is slow up to end of May. I think the range should be running from 1k to 2k selectees but I just put it in the middle as of now. Anyway, we will know more this coming weeks.
 
Kayend said:
Your way of calculating are assuming KCC already know the Iran AP success rate by end of June. Remember, by end of this month, DOS will come out the last batch of visa slots for all regions and the only data that DOS has is up to June. So they have to make some educational guess what will happen in July and Aug. That's is why I am going to track the AP progress and late comers changes (mean those more than 2 months old Ready cases) because this is the data DOS will use to estimate how many more selectees it needs in the final month.

If the progress is going well, DOS might assume higher success rate for late comers and AP cases then they much put lesser visa slots which also mean lower CN for Sept. Based on the data so far, Asia already have 10k or so selectees in July and Asia quota is only around 10k, if we add another 1.5k selectees from Aug it will roughly have 11.5k. I think Asia need additional 1.5k selectees in Sept and assuming 3k or so fall out. Of course it will be much higher or lower it will depend on AP clearing rate in this month because AP clearing is slow up to end of May. I think the range should be running from 1k to 2k selectees but I just put it in the middle as of now. Anyway, we will know more this coming weeks.
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I agree that AP clearing rate is important. That's why I posted scenarios with different issue rates.
if there are 1 to 2k more selectee in Sep as you suggusted, CN will increase ~4.6-6.2k. Final cutoff will be around 17.3k to 19.9k, right?
 
KingKong said:
I agree that AP clearing rate is important. That's why I posted scenarios with different issue rates.
if there are 1 to 2k more selectee in Sep as you suggusted, CN will increase ~4.6-6.2k. Final cutoff will be around 17.3k to 19.9k, right?
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Yes, about that range.
 
Regarding the E3 visa option for Australians. Do you know if you need to secure a job before you are granted the visa? Or can you move over and start applying for work once you're there?
 
Question - looking at CEAC data for OC, and there seem to be a lot of early / low CN still at the "Ready" status. Obviously a vast majority of these could be deemed as not wanting to progress, as they would have missed their interview date. Surely if those low CN people have not rescheduled their interview, their application should / would be classed as abandoned?

Would KCC take this into consideration in determining September cutoff number / regional CURRENT status?
 
MattWatt said:
Question - looking at CEAC data for OC, and there seem to be a lot of early / low CN still at the "Ready" status. Obviously a vast majority of these could be deemed as not wanting to progress, as they would have missed their interview date. Surely if those low CN people have not rescheduled their interview, their application should / would be classed as abandoned?

Would KCC take this into consideration in determining September cutoff number / regional CURRENT status?
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Tell me why you prefer US than AUS??
 
nerandima said:
Tell me why you prefer US than AUS??
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Future opportunities for my family.
Compatible lifestyle.
Job offer.

We'll be keeping our Australian citizenship though, in case things don't work out over there for us.

We are any of us entering the DV Lottery?
 
MattWatt said:
Future opportunities for my family.
Compatible lifestyle.
Job offer.

We'll be keeping our Australian citizenship though, in case things don't work out over there for us.

We are any of us entering the DV Lottery?
Click to expand...

We are dreaming to migrate AUS, But you people are trying to migrate US... Can understand where Sri Lanka is standing..... I think i will get a heart attack when i went US if i got my visa because of the load of facilities which i will be benefited and the massive change in my lifestyle compare to Sri Lanka.
 
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