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August visa bulletin the final.

SKYSTAR said:
THE END OF SWEET DREAM:(. I SHOULD THANK ALL PEOPLE WHO ANSWERED QUESTION GIVING THE HOPE AND ADVISE TO OTHERS. THESE PEOPLE DESERVE APPRECIATION AND RESPECT. MY SELFE, I THANK ALL OF YOU FOR ADVISE. I WILL KEEP THESE MEMORIES IN HEART.
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Don't give up bro even if you have crappy case number
 
Dino434 said:
@Britsimon
what about AF 90.000?
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Ngozimoja said:
And AF 91XXX
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Still highly confident, but less than 99%.

To avoid doing this all day for 1000 AF selectees one by one. Let me say what I think will happen.

AF has enough visas in our expected quota to go on to 100k+ CN. Probably not 116k - but low 100's.

However, EU is moving very fast toward previously expected quota and is likely to exceed what we had thought was possible. AS will now move faster too with the Nepal limit in place (because more embassies will process AS cases). Those are the big regions. If EU is allowed to continue beyond the previously expected quota, then the global limit could be reached before AF reaches it's expected potential. In that scenario, even AF100k would become doubtful.

Furthermore, they have left a huge workload until late in the game. To get to 100k CN they would need to release a VB jump of over 30k CNs or almost 50k to get to the highest number. After 11 months of VBs we got through 69k and then you do 40k CNs in the last month. That doesn't add up to me. Lower density of cases might make that possible - but, is it sensible - no. So - that is something else against us.

JUst my thoughts - feel free to ignore me....
 
rocky72 said:
hi folks :)

forum has changed its appearance ..
Simon you are moderator here ? not bad , i'm glad to see that.

first of all my warm congrats. them who are current in recent VB.

Simon , what's going on with EU? I never seen such an opposite views before , some said EU will get current while others think , that even present cuts will not have all its visa .
what is your opinion? aug is death of EU cuts or it still may rize for some 5K more?
s...t we are really tired of this troublesome year.
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Hi Rocky. Loved your movies.

What is going on with EU? Well I was always hopeful that we would see "low 40's" - and we are here. The 40150, plus existing pace and AP cases etc will get us to between 18-19k. So - there might be a bit more space for September, but not many. I would be surprised to see 45k - but then again, they have allowed EU to go much faster than any other region - so they might let that continue.

Basically my head is spinning as much as anyone else. Surprises, bad decisions, and lack of common sense seem the norm for KCC and the DV process....
 
rocky72 said:
hi folks :)

forum has changed its appearance ..
Simon you are moderator here ? not bad , i'm glad to see that.

first of all my warm congrats. them who are current in recent VB.

Simon , what's going on with EU? I never seen such an opposite views before , some said EU will get current while others think , that even present cuts will not have all its visa .
what is your opinion? aug is death of EU cuts or it still may rize for some 5K more?
s...t we are really tired of this troublesome year.
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Hi mate !
I thought of you this morning when I was reading my old PMs :)
You really took long to pitch up ?!
Hope everinthing is going great for you pal :)
 
veronice said:
Ok... right now SA is like the island for LOST... nobody knows anything and definitely we don't know where we are. If your numbers give you a good picture, great. Mine too. Yet, KCC managed to ignore our calculations and hit the brake for our region.

Hope we all get current, but this does not look good at this point.
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@veronice, a lot of people think this is totally different just because they overselected. I do not. If you look at the spreadsheet you created most of the time SA went current in the last months and at around fifteen hundred. So it it will be all the same. What I do not believe is they will throw fifty or hundred on top of our 1550, what benefit will that bring to us?
 
MuchoDutcho said:
Since I kinda was put on ignore mode, once again my question; My wife has between 1700 and 1750 for SA. Will she be current in the next bulletin? Any views much appreciated on SA. I believe SA wil be current for everyone.

For everybody who thinks some regions will not be current by September...Better put some numbers on it then, we all know by now there a lot more selectees this year.
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Your ignore mode was because you asked a question and then answered your own question with an answer that not many agree with and this is being discussed currently.

I don't think SA will go current. I hope that your wifes' number will however go current.
 
vladek15425 said:
Hi mate !
I thought of you this morning when I was reading my old PMs :)
You really took long to pitch up ?!
Hope everinthing is going great for you pal :)
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yes , sure ... evt is ok with me , except of VB process for me ;)
even though from the beginning i was skeptic with high CN's , but we all kept our hopes inside ...

I'm happy to know that you are current , bro..
and i hope to send my next congrats to you in one nice aug. day , when you'll get your visa !:)
 
Britsimon said:
Hi Rocky. Loved your movies.

What is going on with EU? Well I was always hopeful that we would see "low 40's" - and we are here. The 40150, plus existing pace and AP cases etc will get us to between 18-19k. So - there might be a bit more space for September, but not many. I would be surprised to see 45k - but then again, they have allowed EU to go much faster than any other region - so they might let that continue.

Basically my head is spinning as much as anyone else. Surprises, bad decisions, and lack of common sense seem the norm for KCC and the DV process....
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thanks Simon :)

yeah , your view is absolutely coincides with mine . rather EU won't increase at all , then it will rise for more then 1-3K.
Sad .
Well , you got your visa ? If i'm not wrong you were going to make AOS ?
we may congratulate you ?:)
 
Britsimon said:
Your ignore mode was because you asked a question and then answered your own question with an answer that not many agree with and this is being discussed currently.

I don't think SA will go current. I hope that your wifes' number will however go current.
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Hi Simon,
Usually I value your answers with high estimation, however not this cocky and pedantic one. I believe we go current based on the past.
I normally know the answers tomy own question so if it did not look like that I truly apologize. Not everybody's education is British and has created rocket scientists in NorCal.

On topic; Discussion here is very broad and seems to be directed to EU and AF. I have no problem to many people agreeing with going current, but an aswer like the
'Global Limit is going to hit us' will not bring us anything. If the brakes will be put on for SA, will that be with 1550, or will be go to 1900 for September. Numbers please, which you seem to be able to give for other regions.
Again, with highest estimation
 
Dino434 said:
Don't give up bro even if you have crappy case number
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what is the meaning of the phrase "give up" in this situation? :confused:
is there anything in our hand?
you give up or you struggle hard , VB is absolutely careless of your hard efforts,
 
Chokh, you are current in August (interview in August). Congratulations :)

The numbers are just horrible! What were they thinking?! They're not even following last year's trend!!
 
raevsky said:
DOS Alert: Overall Movement of Cut-off Dates for Diversity Visas (FY2014)

AILA Liaison practice alert informs members that many more applicants registered for DV-2014 are pursuing their cases for visa issuance than in years past. This increased response is resulting in greater visa number use by those with lower rank numbers and slower forward movement of the cut-offs.
AILA Doc. No. 14060241.
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This is so weird. The economy here isn't so significantly better than previous years to explain away some massive unexpected increase in response. The unemployment rate hasn't improved a whole lot since the economy imploded. So its just odd.
 
Britsimon said:
... The 40150, plus existing pace and AP cases etc will get us to between 18-19k. So - there might be a bit more space for September, but not many. I would be surprised to see 45k - but then again, they have allowed EU to go much faster than any other region - so they might let that continue.
....
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What is that you would not be surprised to see for EU? Would you feel confident EU may go up to CN 42-43K for example?
 
MuchoDutcho said:
Hi Simon,
Usually I value your answers with high estimation, however not this cocky and pedantic one. I believe we go current based on the past.
I normally know the answers tomy own question so if it did not look like that I truly apologize. Not everybody's education is British and has created rocket scientists in NorCal.

On topic; Discussion here is very broad and seems to be directed to EU and AF. I have no problem to many people agreeing with going current, but an aswer like the
'Global Limit is going to hit us' will not bring us anything. If the brakes will be put on for SA, will that be with 1550, or will be go to 1900 for September. Numbers please, which you seem to be able to give for other regions.
Again, with highest estimation
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I have no idea why you took that as you did - but feel free to value my reply any way you want. Just be careful to not be insulting please (to me or anyone else).
 
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