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All Ethiopian 2015 DV Winners Meet Here!

camair said:
@Britsimon and other Moderators am not an expert in the DV process but from observations and a little research i hav noticed that some countries like Ethiopia and Kenya case numbers are concentrated in the early number ranges while other countries like Cameroon got high case numbers must of these numbers only go current after April.it is a personal observation
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Ethiopia is limited (and therefore concentrated in early numbers), Kenya is not. What is the difference? Massive difference in the number of entrants - Ethiopia having 3 times the number of entries, and only 40% more selectees. There is no mystery about this - I explained it fully in this post:-

http://britsimonsays.com/the-lottery-draw-process-holes-theory-and-so-on/
 
God-Is-Love said:
Hi @Britsimon. It is common in Ethiopia to use internet cafes which have about 15 computers using the same IP address. It is also common to use wireless internet connections of hotels and offices which cover wide area. Any laptop or mobile phone that use such wireless connection show the same IP address.
So it is 'probable' that some dv winners use same IP address. They may not know each other.
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Yes I understand that, thanks though!
 
God-Is-Love said:
That is very interesting explanation dear @Britsimon. Simple to read and logically ordered presentation. Thanks Britsimon.
Guys, I advice you to read the linked post.
Thanks.
Click to expand...

Glad you liked it.

If you read that, let me make it a bit more real/personal for you guys. In the case of Ethiopia, we can assume (based on recent years statistics) that at least 600k entries (plus family) would have come in from Ethiopia. At 1.8% (the approximate winning chance for Africa), they would have received about 10,800 winning entries - around 14,000 including family members (at 0.3 derivatives per case). Those 10,800 cases would have been randomly distributed over the 100k case numbers - so roughly 1080 Ethiopian winners per 10,000 CNs.

However, since they were cutoff at 4988 (with family members) that works out to be about 3800 cases, and that means the max Ethiopian case number would be about 35k (roughly). I expect all of those cases to get current. Some people may say that seems unfair to give the Ethiopian cases the low numbers - so the draw explanation makes it clear why it is fair. And of course, the 4988 winners from Ethiopia get the low numbers, but something like 9000 more people from Ethiopia lost their winning chance before the selected letters were even sent out!

Incidentally, that 1080 per 10k case numbers trend continues above the 35k - but of course those cases are "holes", thus reducing the density in higher case number ranges.

I hope the real example further clarifies the theory explained on the blog post.
 
Britsimon said:
Glad you liked it.

If you read that, let me make it a bit more real/personal for you guys. In the case of Ethiopia, we can assume (based on recent years statistics) that at least 600k entries (plus family) would have come in from Ethiopia. At 1.8% (the approximate winning chance for Africa), they would have received about 10,800 winning entries - around 14,000 including family members (at 0.3 derivatives per case). Those 10,800 cases would have been randomly distributed over the 100k case numbers - so roughly 1080 Ethiopian winners per 10,000 CNs.

However, since they were cutoff at 4988 (with family members) that works out to be about 3800 cases, and that means the max Ethiopian case number would be about 35k (roughly). I expect all of those cases to get current. Some people may say that seems unfair to give the Ethiopian cases the low numbers - so the draw explanation makes it clear why it is fair. And of course, the 4988 winners from Ethiopia get the low numbers, but something like 9000 more people from Ethiopia lost their winning chance before the selected letters were even sent out!

Incidentally, that 1080 per 10k case numbers trend continues above the 35k - but of course those cases are "holes", thus reducing the density in higher case number ranges.

I hope the real example further clarifies the theory explained on the blog post.
Click to expand...
Yes Britsimon. It is clear like distilled water. Lol
 
Britsimon said:
Glad you liked it.

If you read that, let me make it a bit more real/personal for you guys. In the case of Ethiopia, we can assume (based on recent years statistics) that at least 600k entries (plus family) would have come in from Ethiopia. At 1.8% (the approximate winning chance for Africa), they would have received about 10,800 winning entries - around 14,000 including family members (at 0.3 derivatives per case). Those 10,800 cases would have been randomly distributed over the 100k case numbers - so roughly 1080 Ethiopian winners per 10,000 CNs.

However, since they were cutoff at 4988 (with family members) that works out to be about 3800 cases, and that means the max Ethiopian case number would be about 35k (roughly). I expect all of those cases to get current. Some people may say that seems unfair to give the Ethiopian cases the low numbers - so the draw explanation makes it clear why it is fair. And of course, the 4988 winners from Ethiopia get the low numbers, but something like 9000 more people from Ethiopia lost their winning chance before the selected letters were even sent out!

Incidentally, that 1080 per 10k case numbers trend continues above the 35k - but of course those cases are "holes", thus reducing the density in higher case number ranges.

I hope the real example further clarifies the theory explained on the blog post.
Click to expand...
awesome ;tangable and understandable explanation : big up Mr expert
 
Hello Britsimon ,
just remember that in a dv entry 10 years ago , I filled the then girlfriend of mine with . Since then I have had few DV trials all filled 'single' ( which I have been) including this one that I have won .
Should I be worried about that , and anything to do about it ?
P.S I have never been married , and even did not stay long with the girl I entered the dv form as a spouse : )
Thank you !
 
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ethSelam said:
Hello Britsimon ,
just remember that in a dv entry 10 years ago , I filled the then girlfriend of mine with . Since then I have had few DV trials all filled 'single' ( which I have been) including this one that I have won .
Should I be worried about that , and anything to do about it ?
P.S I have never been married , and even did not stay long with the girl I entered the dv form as a spouse : )
Thank you !
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Dear @etselam, You had entered as married 10 years ago, you were not successful. Then you had entered as a single for 2015 and you won. Now you are afraid of the background check that KCC makes if it has any impact on your case. Let me share you a short story.
I had a friend who entered DV lottery application three times with his 'previous' girlfriend as a spouse. He then had broken up with her and got another girl.
After a while, he had entered DV lottery application with his new girl as a spouse and they won. Nothing happened to his case. They had gotten their visa and left to US.
I'm not saying the background check won't affect anything, I'm saying the above successful story will give you a bit relief.
 
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@rolex123,

We do not provide nor encourage members to provide information to others on how to fraudulently obtain visas in this forum. Your postings have therefore been marked as inappropriate and deleted. Please be warned as subsequent such postings will lead to a ban.
 
God-Is-Love said:
Dear @ethSelam, You had entered as married 10 years ago, you were not successful. Then you had entered as a single for 2015 and you won. Now you are afraid of the background check that KCC makes if it has any impact on your case. Let me share you a short story.
I had a friend who entered DV lottery application three times with his 'previous' girlfriend as a spouse. He then had broken up with her and got another girl.
After a while, he had entered DV lottery application with his new girl as a spouse and they won. Nothing happened to his case. They had gotten their visa and left to US.
I'm not saying the background check won't affect anything, I'm saying the above successful story will give you a bit relief.
Click to expand...

ethSelam said:
Hello Britsimon ,
just remember that in a dv entry 10 years ago , I filled the then girlfriend of mine with . Since then I have had few DV trials all filled 'single' ( which I have been) including this one that I have won .
Should I be worried about that , and anything to do about it ?
P.S I have never been married , and even did not stay long with the girl I entered the dv form as a spouse : )
Thank you !
Click to expand...

I will be happy to hear from @Britsimon and @Sm1smom about this case
 
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ethSelam said:
Hello Britsimon ,
just remember that in a dv entry 10 years ago , I filled the then girlfriend of mine with . Since then I have had few DV trials all filled 'single' ( which I have been) including this one that I have won .
Should I be worried about that , and anything to do about it ?
P.S I have never been married , and even did not stay long with the girl I entered the dv form as a spouse : )
Thank you !
Click to expand...

There is a chance you get questioned about it, but it might not even come up. If you are asked you can reply that it was a mistake that you now realise would have disqualified that entry, but as you did not win, it is a non issue.
 
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