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All Ethiopian 2015 DV Winners Meet Here!

God-Is-Love said:
ya, still with you. Go on...



Thanks @Britsimon. Anyone with few concepts of density and statistics (like probability and distribution) can understand your point easily.
But, there is one thing I want to understand more. You said there is slight "real terms" increase of quota for AF (because Nigeria isn't taking any). Given that the overall quota for DV remains the same (like 50,000), where is the quota of Nigeria allocated to? Is it distributed to the other five regions? (if it is only slight for AF)
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I take that you figured out from B.simon's elabolate explanation how to come up with a factor that converts VB downwards on account of Nigeria's absence Hint: he said that 20k in 2014 is now 15.5, 81100 will be 64k). Look up Vb pattrens of say past two years....

On your issue with distribution of Nigerian visas yes they will go to all regions. I guess the scenario will be that Af will get aproportionate share as per the CEAC data, say 40% ( you could confirm this by checking the excact figure then computing this final Af share as a fraction of all visas issued)
For now take my estimate of 45% . Also take say three year average of Nigeria dv visas e.g 2012-2014 you get aroung 2515 visas.
45% of that is about 1132. In distribution of 215 for every 1000,you are looking at 5263. add that to 64k and you are at 69k and B.simon says max for AF will be 7xxxx.
My two cents worth of brain scratching!
 
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Britsimon said:
Interesting discussion about fruits and so on...

Let me just paint the picture about Nigeria a little better.

In 2013 Nigeria had 1.35 entries plus derivatives of about 620k. (Selectee+derivative rate is about 1.45). I think entries would have increased in 2014 but we don't have the numbers from the DoS yet. So - let's take the 2013 entries. As the holes theory explains, they would have got around 25000 winning cases from that number of entries. Those 25,000 cases would have been spread equally between all the numbers which went up to 116k in DV2014. So - if you divide 25000 among the 116k you find that Nigeria must have had around 215 cases per 1000 case numbers. With me so far?

In fact they were limited to about 4200 cases (plus derivatives) because we know they got a total of 6043 selectees including derivatives. THat means those 4200 were all concentrated in the first 20k case numbers. That math is backed up by what we actually saw in DV2013 and DV2014 - you don't find Nigerians with DV2014 cases over about 20k (there might be a handful of oddball cases, but nothing significant).

So - what does that mean for DV2015? It means that out of the first 20k, 4200 cases that would have been assigned to Nigeria are no longer there. Hence my earlier comment that 15500 in DV2015 is actually comparable to 20k in DV2014. That is the impact to Ethiopia right now. At 30k there will be 6k missing cases (i.e. an increase in density). So - 2015AF30XXX is roughly the same as 2014AF36XXX.

Unfortunately for Africa as a whole it means that 2014AF81100 is roughly the same as 2015AF64XXX, although the slight "real terms" increase of quota for AF (because Nigeria isn't taking any) might see us with a final cutoff starting with a 7.
Click to expand...

@britssimon.
You got it mixed this time around. You are assuming that the whole make-up of the process is static except for DS-260 delay factor. Also, your parameters are stuck with the combination of variables of last year. Even more, you are neglecting the compensating effect of artificial cut-off limits imposed in some African Countries (to 5,000), which counter the effect of the absence of Nigeria density wise.
I PREDICT THAT AFRICA AND EUROPE WILL GO CURRENT THIS YEAR.
 
Mfumuke said:
@britssimon.
You got it mixed this time around. You are assuming that the whole make-up of the process is static except for DS-260 delay factor. Also, your parameters are stuck with the combination of variables of last year. Even more, you are neglecting the compensating effect of artificial cut-off limits imposed in some African Countries (to 5,000), which counter the effect of the absence of Nigeria density wise.
I PREDICT THAT AFRICA AND EUROPE WILL GO CURRENT THIS YEAR.
Click to expand...
I am not B.Simon but do you mind expounding on your post a little bit? You have also introduced the ds-260 delay faactor here which IMO, considering the current trend vs interviewing capacities of embasssies might work against full utilisation of all visa numbers in countries with high numbers of selectees, especially high Cns with late submissions- my guess
 
usken go said:
I am not B.Simon but do you mind expounding on your post a little bit? You have also introduced the ds-260 delay faactor here which IMO, considering the current trend vs interviewing capacities of embasssies might work against full utilisation of all visa numbers in countries with high numbers of selectees, especially high Cns with late submissions- my guess
Click to expand...

The assumption taken regarding the effect of SD-260 is that the embassies are normally working at full capacity with regards to DV/Immigrant processing. However, my understanding is that the DV/Immigrant visa processing can be done covering all the selectees, if the KCS processes and forwards the selectees files to the particular embassies in time. Therefore the whole thing will depend on whether the clogging at the beginning will continue to the middle of the financial year, or it will diminish (processing time) as we go into the second part of the FY (Since, the clogging ;I assume is due to the submission of ten of thousands of DS-260 in a short time interval (May 19 to End of July).
Also, the issue which is even a bigger assumption is that the allotted number of visa for Africa will be reduced (my take is that there were no visas allocated for Nigeria, but rather for Africa). Since the Population of the continents involved have not changed that much since last year I doubt very much that the so called Nigerians' visas will be removed from AF pot.

Also, If you look carefully at the trend from the: https://docs.zoho.com/sheet/riphone.do?rid=xmy6ue226758a2abd4068b3b9de3c988cbea1 something is not explainable by the given Math (with regards to past years). Hint what has changes so much in Europe with regards to past years such that it will follow the same trend as Africa (Not being current by end of FY?) .

NB: I might have a lot of bias on my thinking process since I have vested interest (CN wise) in the maximum extent to which Africa CN will be current. However, I am more of a heart person than the head one: Sometimes I see things, which are so clear to me, but my mind take a while to be able to pin point them and elaborate exactly.
 
I like the exclusion clause in the very last paragraph- pure honesty. Remember the interviewing is controlled by the visa bulletin. That is all form me to you for now.
 
Mfumuke said:
@britssimon.
You got it mixed this time around. You are assuming that the whole make-up of the process is static except for DS-260 delay factor. Also, your parameters are stuck with the combination of variables of last year. Even more, you are neglecting the compensating effect of artificial cut-off limits imposed in some African Countries (to 5,000), which counter the effect of the absence of Nigeria density wise.
I PREDICT THAT AFRICA AND EUROPE WILL GO CURRENT THIS YEAR.
Click to expand...

Prediction or wishful thinking....?

I might have missed it but your calculations seem to have ignored the 50k visa limit.
 
God-Is-Love said:
ya, still with you. Go on...



Thanks @Britsimon. Anyone with few concepts of density and statistics (like probability and distribution) can understand your point easily.
But, there is one thing I want to understand more. You said there is slight "real terms" increase of quota for AF (because Nigeria isn't taking any). Given that the overall quota for DV remains the same (like 50,000), where is the quota of Nigeria allocated to? Is it distributed to the other five regions? (if it is only slight for AF)
Click to expand...

The overall quota is decided based on a formula that takes into account the 6 regions, and population for each of the eligible countries. The formula puts me to sleep but an insomniac member named DV4roger gathered the data, did the math and posted the predicted quotas. I described his work at the link below.

By reapplying the formula (which is what the law says they must do) the Nigerian visas are distributed among some of the regions. AF only picks up a small benefit less than 1000 visas. However 1000 visas could easily mean 5000 case numbers since the density is lower once we are in the 60/70k range.

http://britsimonsays.com/the-regional-quota-mystery-solved/
 
Mfumuke said:
@britssimon.
You got it mixed this time around. You are assuming that the whole make-up of the process is static except for DS-260 delay factor. Also, your parameters are stuck with the combination of variables of last year. Even more, you are neglecting the compensating effect of artificial cut-off limits imposed in some African Countries (to 5,000), which counter the effect of the absence of Nigeria density wise.
I PREDICT THAT AFRICA AND EUROPE WILL GO CURRENT THIS YEAR.
Click to expand...
Mfumuke said:
The assumption taken regarding the effect of SD-260 is that the embassies are normally working at full capacity with regards to DV/Immigrant processing. However, my understanding is that the DV/Immigrant visa processing can be done covering all the selectees, if the KCS processes and forwards the selectees files to the particular embassies in time. Therefore the whole thing will depend on whether the clogging at the beginning will continue to the middle of the financial year, or it will diminish (processing time) as we go into the second part of the FY (Since, the clogging ;I assume is due to the submission of ten of thousands of DS-260 in a short time interval (May 19 to End of July).
Also, the issue which is even a bigger assumption is that the allotted number of visa for Africa will be reduced (my take is that there were no visas allocated for Nigeria, but rather for Africa). Since the Population of the continents involved have not changed that much since last year I doubt very much that the so called Nigerians' visas will be removed from AF pot.

Also, If you look carefully at the trend from the: https://docs.zoho.com/sheet/riphone.do?rid=xmy6ue226758a2abd4068b3b9de3c988cbea1 something is not explainable by the given Math (with regards to past years). Hint what has changes so much in Europe with regards to past years such that it will follow the same trend as Africa (Not being current by end of FY?) .

NB: I might have a lot of bias on my thinking process since I have vested interest (CN wise) in the maximum extent to which Africa CN will be current. However, I am more of a heart person than the head one: Sometimes I see things, which are so clear to me, but my mind take a while to be able to pin point them and elaborate exactly.
Click to expand...

I have already considered all of the points you raise. All.

The ds260 fiasco could have a small impact on those cases that are submitted very late, but I doubt that. The capacity at each embassy is not a limitation, ask anyone who has actually stood in line or had an interview. They could double the DVD interviews and still not impact the embassies.

Yes as I declared, I used old entries data, but I also considered the increased global entries declared in 2014 and 2015. Entries have not decreased, and increasing entries increases high cn and density (the latter only in a case like 2015 where a country is out).

The 5000 limit I have also written about and yes, there is a small impact of that, but not enough.

As for the quota, as I just posted, Nigeria population being removed has affected the quota.

So, in short, your comments are indeed from the heart.
 
Mfumuke said:
The assumption taken regarding the effect of SD-260 is that the embassies are normally working at full capacity with regards to DV/Immigrant processing. However, my understanding is that the DV/Immigrant visa processing can be done covering all the selectees, if the KCS processes and forwards the selectees files to the particular embassies in time. Therefore the whole thing will depend on whether the clogging at the beginning will continue to the middle of the financial year, or it will diminish (processing time) as we go into the second part of the FY (Since, the clogging ;I assume is due to the submission of ten of thousands of DS-260 in a short time interval (May 19 to End of July).
Also, the issue which is even a bigger assumption is that the allotted number of visa for Africa will be reduced (my take is that there were no visas allocated for Nigeria, but rather for Africa). Since the Population of the continents involved have not changed that much since last year I doubt very much that the so called Nigerians' visas will be removed from AF pot.

Also, If you look carefully at the trend from the: https://docs.zoho.com/sheet/riphone.do?rid=xmy6ue226758a2abd4068b3b9de3c988cbea1 something is not explainable by the given Math (with regards to past years). Hint what has changes so much in Europe with regards to past years such that it will follow the same trend as Africa (Not being current by end of FY?) .

NB: I might have a lot of bias on my thinking process since I have vested interest (CN wise) in the maximum extent to which Africa CN will be current. However, I am more of a heart person than the head one: Sometimes I see things, which are so clear to me, but my mind take a while to be able to pin point them and elaborate exactly.
Click to expand...

By the way, what country are you charging to?
 
Mfumuke said:
Tanzania.

In seven months time. The last VB for Europe and Africa will read "Current."

The heart will smile, the mind will understand (or try to understand).
Click to expand...

My heart would smile too, but my mind would struggle to understand how they squeezed 58000 selectees into 21000 visas.
 
Britsimon said:
I have already considered all of the points you raise. All.

The ds260 fiasco could have a small impact on those cases that are submitted very late, but I doubt that. The capacity at each embassy is not a limitation, ask anyone who has actually stood in line or had an interview. They could double the DVD interviews and still not impact the embassies.

Yes as I declared, I used old entries data, but I also considered the increased global entries declared in 2014 and 2015. Entries have not decreased, and increasing entries increases high cn and density (the latter only in a case like 2015 where a country is out).

The 5000 limit I have also written about and yes, there is a small impact of that, but not enough.

As for the quota, as I just posted, Nigeria population being removed has affected the quota.

So, in short, your comments are indeed from the heart.
Click to expand...
I had always taken it that rescheduling an interview is made tricky by lack of closer dates due to capacity.
I had not read the blog on how to model the Nigerian visas but as you say lower a lower density at the tail end of the fiscal process compensates for the innacuracy of my very rough and simple way of estimating the AF allocation.
 
usken go said:
I had always taken it that rescheduling an interview is made tricky by lack of closer dates due to capacity.
I had not read the blog on how to model the Nigerian visas but as you say lower a lower density at the tail end of the fiscal process compensates for the innacuracy of my very rough and simple way of estimating the AF allocation.
Click to expand...


No it is not capacity. What makes rescheduling tricky is that CP cases are pre-allocated visas at the point of scheduling. Those visas are allocated for the given month and once the month has ended the embassy is required to account for the visas that were allocated to them for the cases scheduled. So - they report back with issued, refused, now shows AP and transfers (to another embassy). Rescheduling beyond the end of the month means the pre-allocated slot is given back to KCC and the person is put at the end of a line. That line is controlled by KCC but those people don't seem to be prioritized in front of new cases - so selectee rescheduling is to be avoided at all costs. Many people learned that the hard way last year.

Someone in the forum rescheduled a November/December date and have been given an August date, which can't be anything to do with embassy capacity and puts that person in a very risky situation (since the visa slot isn't even guaranteed anymore).
 
Dear the respected members,
It is known that every year most of the dv winners in Ethiopia failed because of educational documents, fake marriage and other cases.
Is there any effect on the total dv quota for our country?
 
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