All Ethiopian 2015 DV Winners Meet Here!

[rolex123]

@Britsimon how about the new DS-260 roll out ? does it have in connection with exceptional numbers? I wish I could understand to the fullest just like hole theory .
thanks
rolex

I suppose one can try to calculate an impact -of-Nigeria variable on the Vb for AF selectees over the 2008-2014 period and apply it on the 2015 situation then forecast the next two VBs Any mathematician around? We try.[/QUOTE]
@usken go I will try
@ZEGREAT what do you say about usken go idea?

 

[God-Is-Love]

@Britsimon how about the new DS-260 roll out ? does it have in connection with exceptional numbers? I wish I could understand to the fullest just like hole theory .
thanks
rolex

I suppose one can try to calculate an impact -of-Nigeria variable on the Vb for AF selectees over the 2008-2014 period and apply it on the 2015 situation then forecast the next two VBs Any mathematician around? We try.

dear @usken go, i also have had confusion before i read @Britsimon's explanation at
www.britsimonsays.com/holes-theory-illustration/
It helps a lot

 

[rolex123]

dear @usken go, i also have had confusion before i read @Britsimon's explanation at
www.britsimonsays.com/holes-theory-illustration/
It helps a lot

@God-Is-Love did u get anything on this exceptional case cut off?

 

[usken go]

Fr

dear @usken go, i also have had confusion before i read @Britsimon's explanation at
www.britsimonsays.com/holes-theory-illustration/
It helps a lot

From the theory and the data comes a formula. We need one to project AF Visa Bulletins for you guys Egypt and the whole region. That's what i meant. E.g see what i sketched on the Kenyan dv scenario in our dv 2015 thread based on available data i expect a slight drop from last year's number of visas issued.

 

[God-Is-Love]

@God-Is-Love did u get anything on this exceptional case cut off?

You can get detailed explanation if you follow the link.
But, in short, it is due to large amount of entry (original eDV application) than other countries in Africa. Large amount of entry means large amount of selection. But, due to country limit, selectees with 'high case numbers' (above the country limit) had been excluded before selection notification(may 1). They don't even know that they were randomly selected.
It means, all selectees who were notified are those who have case numbers below that limit. When KCC distribute these case numbers throughout the year, special cut off should be assigned so that all cases get distributed evenly as per the capacity of the embassy.
You know the concept of density I think.

 

[God-Is-Love]

@God-Is-Love did u get anything on this exceptional case cut off?

One more example dear @rolex123.
Assume, you select 100 students from class A and name them as 1,2,3,......,99,100.
Again, select 100 students from class B and name them as 1,3,5,7......,197,199,201.
If you want to select 10 students from class A, you will end at 10. But if you want to make it for class B, you will end at 19.
If you want to get 100 students from class A after ten weeks, you will end at 100,
if you do the same for class B, you will end at 201. But you counted the same number(100 students) from each class.
You can say class A is Ethiopia and class B another country from Africa.

 

[rolex123]

You can get detailed explanation if you follow the link.
But, in short, it is due to large amount of entry (original eDV application) than other countries in Africa. Large amount of entry means large amount of selection. But, due to country limit, selectees with 'high case numbers' (above the country limit) had been excluded before selection notification(may 1). They don't even know that they were randomly selected.
It means, all selectees who were notified are those who have case numbers below that limit. When KCC distribute these case numbers throughout the year, special cut off should be assigned so that all cases get distributed evenly as per the capacity of the embassy.
You know the concept of density I think.

thanks @God-Is-Love , but still it doesn't explain the trend or predict special VB cut off numbers for Ethiopia or Egypt .
thanks

 

[God-Is-Love]

thanks @God-Is-Love , but still it doesn't explain the trend or predict special VB cut off numbers for Ethiopia or Egypt .
thanks

It explains the reason why Ethiopia and Egypt get special cut off number. But I'm not sure about prediction because the actual density of case numbers and monthly working capacity of the embassy are variables here.

 

[rolex123]

One more example dear @rolex123.
Assume, you select 100 students from class A and name them as 1,2,3,......,99,100.
Again, select 100 students from class B and name them as 1,3,5,7......,197,199,201.
If you want to select 10 students from class A, you will end at 10. But if you want to make it for class B, you will end at 19.
If you want to get 100 students from class A after ten weeks, you will end at 100,
if you do the same for class B, you will end at 201. But you counted the same number(100 students) from each class.
You can say class A is Ethiopia and class B another country from Africa.[/QUO

@God-Is-Love this explains holes-theory -illustration, not the exceptions anyways let's agree for disagree no one can predict exceptions cut of for certain country .

thanks

 

[rolex123]

It explains the reason why Ethiopia and Egypt get special cut off number. But I'm not sure about prediction because the actual density of case numbers and monthly working capacity of the embassy are variables here.

thanks @God-Is-Love , I think @usken go has a big point on the impact of Nigeria eligibility might help to know the exceptions case numbers .

 

[usken go]

One more example dear @rolex123.
Assume, you select 100 students from class A and name them as 1,2,3,......,99,100.
Again, select 100 students from class B and name them as 1,3,5,7......,197,199,201.
If you want to select 10 students from class A, you will end at 10. But if you want to make it for class B, you will end at 19.
If you want to get 100 students from class A after ten weeks, you will end at 100,
if you do the same for class B, you will end at 201. But you counted the same number(100 students) from each class.
You can say class A is Ethiopia and class B another country from Africa.

In a way yees.... but think of fruits in the same bag, say apples , mangoes, peaches guavas. you need about 5 of each- apple: mango: peach:guava ratio= 40:30.20:10 so you keep picking randomly and assigning numbers-obviously you get max number of apples first and any other picked is set aside. Ethiopia= apples here, Egypt = mangoes etc.

 

[God-Is-Love]

In a way yees.... but think of fruits in the same bag, say apples , mangoes, peaches guavas. you need about 5 of each- apple: mango: peach:guava ratio= 40:30.20:10 so you keep picking randomly and assigning numbers-obviously you get max number of apples first and any other picked is set aside. Ethiopia= apples here, Egypt = mangoes etc.

yes. We are talking the same way.
If you randomly assign numbers to all fruits in the bag(starting from 1), and want to select five from each, and if you start to choosing from lowest number, you will find 5 apples sooner than getting 5 guavas. That means the name of the fifth apple will be "lower one", and the name of the fifth guavas will be "higher one". (the names can be considered as case numbers).
Now try to have one apple and one guava every day. At the fifth day you get the fifth apple (named lower one) and the fifth guava (named higher one), but still five from each.
That is what i tried to explain in class A and B example. It explains distribution of case numbers for interview after selection notification.

 

[usken go]

true. Remember the sampling frame is o

yes. We are talking the same way.
If you randomly assign numbers to all fruits in the bag(starting from 1), and want to select five from each, and if you start to choosing from lowest number, you will find 5 apples sooner than getting 5 guavas. That means the name of the fifth apple will be "lower one", and the name of the fifth guavas will be "higher one". (the names can be considered as case numbers).
Now try to have one apple and one guava every day. At the fifth day you get the fifth apple (named lower one) and the fifth guava (named higher one), but still five from each.
That is what i tried to explain in class A and B example. It explains distribution of case numbers for interview after selection notification.

True. just remeber that the sampling frame is ONE.

 

[Britsimon]

Each year is different - kinda difficult to predict. This year, numbers will be lower partly because Nigeria is not there. They would have taken a large number of the case numbers up to 20k - so 15500 might be equivalent to 20k in DV2014.

@Britsimon how about the new DS-260 roll out ? does it have in connection with exceptional numbers? I wish I could understand to the fullest just like hole theory .
thanks
rolex[/QUOTE]


They switched to a new process and delayed the start by 19 days. The process was more immediate (online) so there must have been a flood of DS260s submitted in a massive pile all on December 19. We know they failed to implement new ways to process the forms - so they started late, got more forms in sooner and had broken their methods to deal with the processing. That is what introduced the delays....

 

[Britsimon]

Interesting discussion about fruits and so on...

Let me just paint the picture about Nigeria a little better.

In 2013 Nigeria had 1.35 entries plus derivatives of about 620k. (Selectee+derivative rate is about 1.45). I think entries would have increased in 2014 but we don't have the numbers from the DoS yet. So - let's take the 2013 entries. As the holes theory explains, they would have got around 25000 winning cases from that number of entries. Those 25,000 cases would have been spread equally between all the numbers which went up to 116k in DV2014. So - if you divide 25000 among the 116k you find that Nigeria must have had around 215 cases per 1000 case numbers. With me so far?

In fact they were limited to about 4200 cases (plus derivatives) because we know they got a total of 6043 selectees including derivatives. THat means those 4200 were all concentrated in the first 20k case numbers. That math is backed up by what we actually saw in DV2013 and DV2014 - you don't find Nigerians with DV2014 cases over about 20k (there might be a handful of oddball cases, but nothing significant).

So - what does that mean for DV2015? It means that out of the first 20k, 4200 cases that would have been assigned to Nigeria are no longer there. Hence my earlier comment that 15500 in DV2015 is actually comparable to 20k in DV2014. That is the impact to Ethiopia right now. At 30k there will be 6k missing cases (i.e. an increase in density). So - 2015AF30XXX is roughly the same as 2014AF36XXX.

Unfortunately for Africa as a whole it means that 2014AF81100 is roughly the same as 2015AF64XXX, although the slight "real terms" increase of quota for AF (because Nigeria isn't taking any) might see us with a final cutoff starting with a 7.

 

[aiguo]

Interesting discussion about fruits and so on...

Let me just paint the picture about Nigeria a little better.

In 2013 Nigeria had 1.35 entries plus derivatives of about 620k. (Selectee+derivative rate is about 1.45). I think entries would have increased in 2014 but we don't have the numbers from the DoS yet. So - let's take the 2013 entries. As the holes theory explains, they would have got around 25000 winning cases from that number of entries. Those 25,000 cases would have been spread equally between all the numbers which went up to 116k in DV2014. So - if you divide 25000 among the 116k you find that Nigeria must have had around 215 cases per 100 case numbers. With me so far?

In fact they were limited to about 4200 cases (plus derivatives) because we know they got a total of 6043 selectees including derivatives. THat means those 4200 were all concentrated in the first 20k case numbers. That math is backed up by what we actually saw in DV2013 and DV2014 - you don't find Nigerians with DV2014 cases over about 20k (there might be a handful of oddball cases, but nothing significant).

So - what does that mean for DV2015? It means that out of the first 20k, 4200 cases that would have been assigned to Nigeria are no longer there. Hence my earlier comment that 15500 in DV2015 is actually comparable to 20k in DV2014. That is the impact to Ethiopia right now. At 30k there will be 6k missing cases (i.e. an increase in density). So - 2015AF30XXX is roughly the same as 2014AF36XXX.

Unfortunately for Africa as a whole it means that 2014AF81100 is roughly the same as 2015AF64XXX, although the slight "real terms" increase of quota for AF (because Nigeria isn't taking any) might see us with a final cutoff starting with a 7.

if i got you right you saying that African might have a final cutoff in September within 70000? do you think Africa can be current by August?

 

[Britsimon]

if i got you right you saying that African might have a final cutoff in September within 70000? do you think Africa can be current by August?

No - I didn't say the cutoff would be at 70k - but I am hoping it will be in the 70's. However, means AF will not see current in August or any month. Current would mean that all numbers up to the very highest (nearly 100k) will get interviews - and I am saying that is impossible.

 

[aiguo]

No - I didn't say the cutoff would be at 70k - but I am hoping it will be in the 70's. However, means AF will not see current in August or any month. Current would mean that all numbers up to the very highest (nearly 100k) will get interviews - and I am saying that is impossible.

ok, got your point

 

[God-Is-Love]

Interesting discussion about fruits and so on...

Let me just paint the picture about Nigeria a little better.

In 2013 Nigeria had 1.35 entries plus derivatives of about 620k. (Selectee+derivative rate is about 1.45). I think entries would have increased in 2014 but we don't have the numbers from the DoS yet. So - let's take the 2013 entries. As the holes theory explains, they would have got around 25000 winning cases from that number of entries. Those 25,000 cases would have been spread equally between all the numbers which went up to 116k in DV2014. So - if you divide 25000 among the 116k you find that Nigeria must have had around 215 cases per 1000 case numbers. With me so far?

ya, still with you. Go on...

...In fact they were limited to about 4200 cases (plus derivatives) because we know they got a total of 6043 selectees including derivatives. THat means those 4200 were all concentrated in the first 20k case numbers. That math is backed up by what we actually saw in DV2013 and DV2014 - you don't find Nigerians with DV2014 cases over about 20k (there might be a handful of oddball cases, but nothing significant).

So - what does that mean for DV2015? It means that out of the first 20k, 4200 cases that would have been assigned to Nigeria are no longer there. Hence my earlier comment that 15500 in DV2015 is actually comparable to 20k in DV2014. That is the impact to Ethiopia right now. At 30k there will be 6k missing cases (i.e. an increase in density). So - 2015AF30XXX is roughly the same as 2014AF36XXX.

Unfortunately for Africa as a whole it means that 2014AF81100 is roughly the same as 2015AF64XXX, although the slight "real terms" increase of quota for AF (because Nigeria isn't taking any) might see us with a final cutoff starting with a 7.

Thanks @Britsimon. Anyone with few concepts of density and statistics (like probability and distribution) can understand your point easily.
But, there is one thing I want to understand more. You said there is slight "real terms" increase of quota for AF (because Nigeria isn't taking any). Given that the overall quota for DV remains the same (like 50,000), where is the quota of Nigeria allocated to? Is it distributed to the other five regions? (if it is only slight for AF)

 

[usken go]

Interesting discussion about fruits and so on...

Let me just paint the picture about Nigeria a little better.

In 2013 Nigeria had 1.35 entries plus derivatives of about 620k. (Selectee+derivative rate is about 1.45). I think entries would have increased in 2014 but we don't have the numbers from the DoS yet. So - let's take the 2013 entries. As the holes theory explains, they would have got around 25000 winning cases from that number of entries. Those 25,000 cases would have been spread equally between all the numbers which went up to 116k in DV2014. So - if you divide 25000 among the 116k you find that Nigeria must have had around 215 cases per 1000 case numbers. With me so far?

In fact they were limited to about 4200 cases (plus derivatives) because we know they got a total of 6043 selectees including derivatives. THat means those 4200 were all concentrated in the first 20k case numbers. That math is backed up by what we actually saw in DV2013 and DV2014 - you don't find Nigerians with DV2014 cases over about 20k (there might be a handful of oddball cases, but nothing significant).

So - what does that mean for DV2015? It means that out of the first 20k, 4200 cases that would have been assigned to Nigeria are no longer there. Hence my earlier comment that 15500 in DV2015 is actually comparable to 20k in DV2014. That is the impact to Ethiopia right now. At 30k there will be 6k missing cases (i.e. an increase in density). So - 2015AF30XXX is roughly the same as 2014AF36XXX.

Unfortunately for Africa as a whole it means that 2014AF81100 is roughly the same as 2015AF64XXX, although the slight "real terms" increase of quota for AF (because Nigeria isn't taking any) might see us with a final cutoff starting with a 7.

The variable we were looking for! I hope its easy now easy for Ethiopia to predict subsequent VBs