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- Thread starter Silly Man
- Start date
gruha, http://pceegcee.tripod.com/
Silly Man
Volunteer moderator
WAC-02 Analysis Part #1
Based upon PCee's list, I've done a little analysis for October people,
October Cases
Total: 34
Total Unapproved: 15
Total pinks (Info added later): 19
Total Unapproved pinks: 3
WAC range: WAC-01-297 to WAC-02-010
If you see the above, we have a huge # of pinks, so obviously calculations need to accomodate for pinks
Pinks who keep getting added later, and until 88% approval rate (assuming 12% drop out rate), we have
Adjusted Total = Total * Adjustment Factor
The adjustment factor must not include Approved Pinks because assuming Approved people have a greater enthu to add than the vice versa.
Therefore, Adjustment Factor = (1+Unapproved Pinks/Total Unapproved)
Gives Adjusted Total = 34*(1+3/15) = 34*1.2= 41 People.
Which gives us,
Total Approved = 15/41 = 36%
Given the above, and that the range of approval dates (excluding freak cases), we see it took CSC from the mid of 6 to mid of 8 = 2 months to approve 36% cases.
Assuming asymptotic decline, 2 more months and everyone in the october list should expect an approval. Except freak cases of course. Also, the later you get, the higher is your probability of becoming a freak case.
I really wish I had the FP locations of the people who got approved to give you a clearer picture, but ... !!! If you are Los Angeles-ian, and assuming 50% apps got filed in So. Cal. your turn should be real close.
So people, please post your FP locations
with your approvals .
Later tator.
- SM
,, so I'll just post here.I can't post a new thread
Based upon PCee's list, I've done a little analysis for October people,
October Cases
Total: 34
Total Unapproved: 15
Total pinks (Info added later): 19
Total Unapproved pinks: 3
WAC range: WAC-01-297 to WAC-02-010
If you see the above, we have a huge # of pinks, so obviously calculations need to accomodate for pinks
Pinks who keep getting added later, and until 88% approval rate (assuming 12% drop out rate), we have
Adjusted Total = Total * Adjustment Factor
The adjustment factor must not include Approved Pinks because assuming Approved people have a greater enthu to add than the vice versa.
Therefore, Adjustment Factor = (1+Unapproved Pinks/Total Unapproved)
Gives Adjusted Total = 34*(1+3/15) = 34*1.2= 41 People.
Which gives us,
Total Approved = 15/41 = 36%
Given the above, and that the range of approval dates (excluding freak cases), we see it took CSC from the mid of 6 to mid of 8 = 2 months to approve 36% cases.
Assuming asymptotic decline, 2 more months and everyone in the october list should expect an approval. Except freak cases of course. Also, the later you get, the higher is your probability of becoming a freak case.
I really wish I had the FP locations of the people who got approved to give you a clearer picture, but ... !!! If you are Los Angeles-ian, and assuming 50% apps got filed in So. Cal. your turn should be real close.
So people, please post your FP locations
with your approvals .Later tator.
- SM
Silly Man
Volunteer moderator
WAC-2 analysis part 2.
Hi Folks,
Just had been doing some analysis of WAC-02-040 to WAC 02-52 #'s from PCee's list.
Total people 73. (Increased a lot since last time).
Assuming 12% dropouts (as happened in previous pages) Real # = 64.
Total # of approved = 17 = 23.2% (Increased from 13.2% in 10 days).
Approved (San Jose) = 6
Approved (Oakland) = 2
Approved (Sacramento) = 2
Approved (Unknown) = 6 (please let us know if you can)
Deductions,
a) FP location unknown is too high to make a location based guess. Guys please post FP locations with approvals.
b) Don't see too many LA people, just one 245(i) case still.
c) 23.2% is a good rise but still nothing funky. Looking at above October cases, people in this list can assume a worst case of 3 months from today (also read above message). This is revised from 2 month estimate earlier.. strangely November people are a *LOT* more than October, which made me revise my estimate.
d) If you are not approved yet, don't loose hope you are still with the majority.
e) Hoping and Expecting to see LA people join the ranks of approved soon.
The increase can be justified by the fact that people are trying to gather as much data as they can, and the new additions didn't know about these boards.
- SM
Hi Folks,
Just had been doing some analysis of WAC-02-040 to WAC 02-52 #'s from PCee's list.
Total people 73. (Increased a lot since last time).
Assuming 12% dropouts (as happened in previous pages) Real # = 64.
Total # of approved = 17 = 23.2% (Increased from 13.2% in 10 days).
Approved (San Jose) = 6
Approved (Oakland) = 2
Approved (Sacramento) = 2
Approved (Unknown) = 6 (please let us know if you can)
Deductions,
a) FP location unknown is too high to make a location based guess. Guys please post FP locations with approvals.
b) Don't see too many LA people, just one 245(i) case still.
c) 23.2% is a good rise but still nothing funky. Looking at above October cases, people in this list can assume a worst case of 3 months from today (also read above message). This is revised from 2 month estimate earlier.
. strangely November people are a *LOT* more than October, which made me revise my estimate.d) If you are not approved yet, don't loose hope you are still with the majority.
e) Hoping and Expecting to see LA people join the ranks of approved soon.
The increase can be justified by the fact that people are trying to gather as much data as they can, and the new additions didn't know about these boards.
- SM
another week ...another wait
I am getting tired of the waiting...Silly Man, I think my case delay is due to the fact the my FP was received by INS on 4/29 after being sent back by the FBI on 3/20 ! I think CSC is processing cases in the FP done by 4/6 range...so I guess I may have to wait for some more !
Do you have any analysis for San Jose FP dates vs aproval dates, since san jose waiters did the FPs most recently.
So the wac#s and FP dates for approvals could match out and show some trends?
I am getting tired of the waiting...Silly Man, I think my case delay is due to the fact the my FP was received by INS on 4/29 after being sent back by the FBI on 3/20 ! I think CSC is processing cases in the FP done by 4/6 range...so I guess I may have to wait for some more !
Do you have any analysis for San Jose FP dates vs aproval dates, since san jose waiters did the FPs most recently.
So the wac#s and FP dates for approvals could match out and show some trends?
Silly Man
Volunteer moderator
San Jose/FP
Codex, I think TT TT is right, you need to be within the processing range to expect an approval in most cases. The range mostly right now extends to a max of WAC-02-55. Expect to be within that range in a month, if you are lucky enough. We really haven't seen the range move much in the last 1.5 months honestly.
The first thing that matters is the ND. Based upon your ND is your WAC so that is also the first thing that matters. Based upon your location, you get your FP done. early or late. San Jose was late, so most san hoes, who are < WAC-02-50, have a reason to cheer about. tt tt, my guess is you are one of them. Chances that your application will be looked at is high.
If you have a not normal case of FP got delayed or something, I have no clue about when and how your application will be adjudicated. Depends where they put your app. Will it be with others or will it be with seperate? No idea. I posted a bundle story a while back. Just imagine that INS went eenie meenie miny moe see a bundle pick it hoe(sey). So San Hoes got lucky. They are gonna go thru that, and once they are done with it, there will be another eenie meenie minie moe, I'm hoping they pick my bundle, but all of us are too.
Also, I donot have a micro level trend for San hoes. IMHO, overall it will balance out. Theory of Equillibrium, a system with infinite boundaries has zero energy relative to it's surroundings. Try explaining Chaos Theory based upon that, that complex and unpredictable results can and will occur in systems that are sensitive to their initial conditions. You just gotta play the game and hope you are not the initial condition leading to a revolution that will overthrow INS .. hehe. Just get your green card and be happy.
Crux of the story, can't do much but wait.
Codex, I think TT TT is right, you need to be within the processing range to expect an approval in most cases. The range mostly right now extends to a max of WAC-02-55. Expect to be within that range in a month, if you are lucky enough. We really haven't seen the range move much in the last 1.5 months honestly.
The first thing that matters is the ND. Based upon your ND is your WAC so that is also the first thing that matters. Based upon your location, you get your FP done. early or late. San Jose was late, so most san hoes, who are < WAC-02-50, have a reason to cheer about. tt tt, my guess is you are one of them. Chances that your application will be looked at is high.
If you have a not normal case of FP got delayed or something, I have no clue about when and how your application will be adjudicated. Depends where they put your app. Will it be with others or will it be with seperate? No idea. I posted a bundle story a while back. Just imagine that INS went eenie meenie miny moe see a bundle pick it hoe(sey). So San Hoes got lucky. They are gonna go thru that, and once they are done with it, there will be another eenie meenie minie moe, I'm hoping they pick my bundle, but all of us are too.
Also, I donot have a micro level trend for San hoes. IMHO, overall it will balance out. Theory of Equillibrium, a system with infinite boundaries has zero energy relative to it's surroundings. Try explaining Chaos Theory based upon that, that complex and unpredictable results can and will occur in systems that are sensitive to their initial conditions. You just gotta play the game and hope you are not the initial condition leading to a revolution that will overthrow INS .. hehe. Just get your green card and be happy.
Crux of the story, can't do much but wait.
Silly Man....dpakki has seen some AVM change
with wac #53 and FP 4/17 so I think the next ones on the most likely ones to hear something are mat s, khi_boy, RM_CSC.
In my case even though my Wac # is 35 the FP receipt of 4/29 is most likely the reason of delay. Similarly another person csc2001 from the Sept ND list wac #295 or so , did FP on 5/11 and maybe that is why the case is still pending.
So I think if WAC < 55 and FP < 4/17 get ready for good news
For the others with only the WAC or the FP condition being true maybe another week or so.
I remember a line from "Friends"..this is just a theory..a lot of theories sometimes do not pan out...communism, geometry..!
with wac #53 and FP 4/17 so I think the next ones on the most likely ones to hear something are mat s, khi_boy, RM_CSC.
In my case even though my Wac # is 35 the FP receipt of 4/29 is most likely the reason of delay. Similarly another person csc2001 from the Sept ND list wac #295 or so , did FP on 5/11 and maybe that is why the case is still pending.
So I think if WAC < 55 and FP < 4/17 get ready for good news
For the others with only the WAC or the FP condition being true maybe another week or so.
I remember a line from "Friends"..this is just a theory..a lot of theories sometimes do not pan out...communism, geometry..!
gcwaiting007
Registered Users (C)
WAC < 55 FP 3/12...waiting
Still waiting. And I am in the San Jose area. So, I dont think that really matters. Here is my theory, I dont think INS has the elaborate workflow management system as suggested by some member sometime back. I guess each officer is assigned a bunch of case #s. So, say for example, wac-02-001 - 010 might be with officer A, 011-020 might be with officer B, etc. They would be given a timeline of say 1 week or 2 weeks or so. And at the end of the timeline, their supervisor(s) compare notes and assign a new batch or clear the backlogs. That could be the reason for approvals so disparate. Some 001 gets approved and then we see a 052 getting approved. I guess it goes that way until the month end when they do a further clean up.
what do you guys think?
Still waiting. And I am in the San Jose area. So, I dont think that really matters. Here is my theory, I dont think INS has the elaborate workflow management system as suggested by some member sometime back. I guess each officer is assigned a bunch of case #s. So, say for example, wac-02-001 - 010 might be with officer A, 011-020 might be with officer B, etc. They would be given a timeline of say 1 week or 2 weeks or so. And at the end of the timeline, their supervisor(s) compare notes and assign a new batch or clear the backlogs. That could be the reason for approvals so disparate. Some 001 gets approved and then we see a 052 getting approved. I guess it goes that way until the month end when they do a further clean up.
what do you guys think?
Hi
Just spoke to an IIO reg my case WAC-02-086-xxxxx
She says that case should get assigned in the next 2-3 weeks, I just can't believe anything anymore, but no hrm in posting this on the forum.
Maybe when I speak next week again, she way say 2 months or case already assigned..just no consistency!
Any update from the group, been quiet lately
Just spoke to an IIO reg my case WAC-02-086-xxxxx
She says that case should get assigned in the next 2-3 weeks, I just can't believe anything anymore, but no hrm in posting this on the forum.
Maybe when I speak next week again, she way say 2 months or case already assigned..just no consistency!
Any update from the group, been quiet lately
I totally agree...like I said
some theories do not pan out, but it is nice to hope and search for some rational explanation for the delay..considering my lawyer is not willing to look at my case until the end of this month..my brain is working in a tight loop.
From a 30K feet above the ground view, definitly there is some sequential order in the INS at the micro level we have just too few data points and too little insight into how the INS really works.
some theories do not pan out, but it is nice to hope and search for some rational explanation for the delay..considering my lawyer is not willing to look at my case until the end of this month..my brain is working in a tight loop.
From a 30K feet above the ground view, definitly there is some sequential order in the INS at the micro level we have just too few data points and too little insight into how the INS really works.