what you man? I vaguely remember that raevsky name.
2017 DV LOTTERY COUNTDOWN TO MAY
- Thread starter ALMASI
- Start date
Florentine.n.Alex
Member
We have a sneaking suspicion in our house too MissM88 - the one year that my plans in Aus are starting to look pretty interesting, THIS will be the year that Karma says "Oh hai! This is what you wanted right? There you go, have a low CN" lol! I plan to check some time our Thursday, after the initial rush. Gone are the years I would wait up all night to check
Haha! I also have the same thing happening to me now! Just got a promotion so I'm like... NOW?? But yeah, IF I do get selected I would still decide to go ahead and get that green card
!!
Pierre82
Well-Known Member
Yeah its a nice place to live to be honest. If you don't have any problem with heat and high humidity but besides that its a good and safe place to make a living. Trying luck with DV and see if more opportunities can be granted but this is all based on luck and its better to keep in mind what i can still do here in my lovely country
Pierre82
Well-Known Member
Haha! I also have the same thing happening to me now! Just got a promotion so I'm like... NOW?? But yeah, IF I do get selected I would still decide to go ahead and get that green card
Congrats on the promotion and good luck on this lottery. Makes me remember the excitement that I had when i applied for the first time
well, do not get over exited... Hoping to get it but do not get over exited... Chances are quite low depending on your region and country (high entrants countries have a selection cap)... On average (except oceania) chances are like between 0.5 to 4% (some countries in Africa have a history of having about 4% of its entrants to be selected
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Please show us where you have seen a 4% selection rate for an African country. That sounds far higher chance than reality.
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
Never mind, I'm sure it was just a similar name!
Well, I do not want to name a specific country but I saw from 2012 to 2015, some countries in Africa had around 3% selected... And in 2015 one of them had about 4%,
3,837 entrants for 173 selectees... 4.51%
that same country in 2014 :
entrants -> 2,329
selectee -> 84
chances -> 3.6%
2013
entrants -> 1,543
selectees -> 47
chances -> 3%
Now there was a debate on whether derivatives were counted in the results... This is another story... Is there a total of only 50 000 visas or 50 000 visa + countless of derivatives visa
Last edited:
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
Why don't you want to name the country?? Do you really want everyone else to have to go into the DV stats to track down the countries? In the meanwhile can you confirm if those selectees are including derivatives, as the main numbers published in the visa bulletin usually are (the full stats provide a breakdown between principal and derivative). If they do, that overstates the probability of selection so you are back at 1-2% chance of selection, actually.
I have to point out that your last sentence shows you do not understand the numbers. It's very widely publicized that the 50k visas include derivatives. There is no debate, the numbers are there and so is the law, all published.
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
Angola, ooh, the big secret is out
Luckily it was early in the list alphabetically
Hardly any of those visas end up getting issued for Angola, interestingly. 15 or less per year for the past 10 years. https://travel.state.gov/content/da...014AnnualReport/FY14AnnualReport-TableVII.pdf
Luckily it was early in the list alphabetically
Hardly any of those visas end up getting issued for Angola, interestingly. 15 or less per year for the past 10 years. https://travel.state.gov/content/da...014AnnualReport/FY14AnnualReport-TableVII.pdf
Yinbil
New Member
Hi Yinbil. I'm from Panama in Central America.
Oh that's great. Have a couple of friends living and working in Panama. It's a beautiful place even though I haven't been there before lol. Yes, I'm from West Africa (Ghana) and hopefully we'd all win the DV lottery this year. My 2nd attempt at this though
Yeah its a nice place to live to be honest. If you don't have any problem with heat and high humidity but besides that its a good and safe place to make a living. Trying luck with DV and see if more opportunities can be granted but this is all based on luck and its better to keep in mind what i can still do here in my lovely country
Yeah you're absolutely right. My friends actually wanted me to come visit it but there's no Panama embassy in Ghana am told i have to move to Nigeria in other to get the Panama embassy for the visa so I didn't get to do all of that.
DV is luck if we win then good news if it's the other way round then we find something positive to do in our individual countries
Yes I know my chances, I'm from Hungary here the chance is around 3% average. But who knows.. I read a lot of lucky people got it for the first try. I really trust my luck and wish it with all my heart, so why not me.. But if not now, I will find another way to get visa, and try again this lottery.
Fingers crossed and good luck to all!
Britsimon
Super Moderator
First, there is no debate about whether derivatives are included. They are included in the 50K visas, and they are included in the selectees.
And the second point is why your 4.51% number is incorrect. Angola had a starting derivative rate of 2.4 in 2015. So - the 173 selectees was (statistically) from 72 winning cases. That is under 1.8% winning chance, NOT 4.51%. Now - that is higher than would normally be expected, but with such a small number of winning cases, it is possible to get a few more winners, or have winning cases with higher derivative rates, than the average chance.
The winning chances are uniform across each region (except where a country is artificially limited due to very high entrants).
MissM88
Active Member
We have a sneaking suspicion in our house too MissM88 - the one year that my plans in Aus are starting to look pretty interesting, THIS will be the year that Karma says "Oh hai! This is what you wanted right? There you go, have a low CN" lol! I plan to check some time our Thursday, after the initial rush. Gone are the years I would wait up all night to check
Haha yeah life has a funny way of working out that way. I just feel bad for those that seem to pin all their hopes and dreams on it. I dont think about it till closer - now that it's only days away the curiosity is starting to annoy me more than anything haha
MissM88
Active Member
Haha! I also have the same thing happening to me now! Just got a promotion so I'm like... NOW?? But yeah, IF I do get selected I would still decide to go ahead and get that green card
Congrats on the promotion
Qewty
Registered Users (C)
Even though part of me is getting excited, after a few years I now have a lower expectation of winning. What does annoy me though (and it's bad, I know) is seeing messages after release day of "I only entered for the first time on a lark and I won!", or "my first time entering and I won!" I usually sigh at those and move away from the forums for a while to lick my wounds
Pierre82
Well-Known Member
Yeap Panama has only a couple of embassies for African nations but we are expanding relationships with more countries and I wont be surprised that we could have more embassies opening in the future. The new one to open soon is the one for UAE as well getting a direct flight to Dubai with Emirates Airlines. The day is getting closer so hold on tight and good luck
Pierre82
Well-Known Member
Even though part of me is getting excited, after a few years I now have a lower expectation of winning. What does annoy me though (and it's bad, I know) is seeing messages after release day of "I only entered for the first time on a lark and I won!", or "my first time entering and I won!" I usually sigh at those and move away from the forums for a while to lick my wounds
I understand your point and its good example of how luck works with people. Some get the lucky ticket with low case number on the first and we just need to keep trying our luck while the program exist. 99% chance of getting not selected, got to love it
