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2014 DV Australian winners

typo said:
Yeah I like the sound of your second paragraph, I'm also sadly with your thinking that OC won't go current. Do you know though if Africa, Asia and Europe are on track to those figures? If it appears they are going to greatly exceed those numbers then yeah OC and SA should be worried, otherwise we're still all-systems-go in my mind.
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In recent years, AF have been getting around 24k, EU around 16-17k and AS around 9 - 9.5. This year the CEAC data is showing that EU is ahead of that curve and could get to 19k or so. AF will have to get a move on to even get to 22k and AS will probably be under 9500. That means the big 3 could take almost 50 by themselves - leaving SA and OC with "normal" quotas. I don't think it is all systems go. I know you have this sensible mathmatical theory about flooding OC and SA at the last minute - but that is not how they have ever done things before and it would be a pretty silly way to use the bandwidth of the embassies for interviews and processing. I think if OC and AS get any adjustment at all, it will be small.
 
typo said:
Yeah I like the sound of your second paragraph, I'm also sadly with your thinking that OC won't go current. Do you know though if Africa, Asia and Europe are on track to those figures? If it appears they are going to greatly exceed those numbers then yeah OC and SA should be worried, otherwise we're still all-systems-go in my mind.
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I did a quick extrapolation on AF and EU after CEAC was released and without AOS, EU and AF should both reach 17,5k by the end of Agust so I think Simon is right assuming EU getting around 19k this year.
 
franko said:
I did a quick extrapolation on AF and EU after CEAC was released and without AOS, EU and AF should both reach 17,5k by the end of Agust so I think Simon is right assuming EU getting around 19k this year.
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Thanks for checking the thinking. AF tends to build up a lot of AP cases and these tend to get cleared out in September - so they will have high numbers of visas issued in August and September.
 
Britsimon said:
You are confusing CN s with selectees. In 2014 the max CN was about 3000 ish. The principal selectees gets a case number, not the family and the family are included in the 4200 figure.
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Even if we consider cutoff CN vs max CN, OC is still riding at a woefully low percentage.
 
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AU.Dan said:
Here is a comparison between the 2013 and 2014 CEAC data listed month to month.
http://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1g_E0mWyYX4weoIzokJb9DMthMdr1jsH64kxhVZstL2g/edit?usp=sharing
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That is a nice comparison. Essentially it shows that OC is pretty much on target to do what they did last year. For OC I think the aos figure could be quite high (due in part to the E3 cases). So If they stop now, OC would end up pretty much the same as last year. The 2013 CEAC data is slightly understated and neither year CEAC data includes aos.

By the way, it dawned on me at the weekend that the E3 cases might actually be reducing the OC quota year on year. The quota is a product of population for the region but then reduced by by existing immigration. So - the rise of the E3 visas will probably have increased Aussie immigration, and thus be reducing DV visas for the region.
 
Britsimon said:
That is a nice comparison. Essentially it shows that OC is pretty much on target to do what they did last year. For OC I think the aos figure could be quite high (due in part to the E3 cases). So If they stop now, OC would end up pretty much the same as last year. The 2013 CEAC data is slightly understated and neither year CEAC data includes aos.

By the way, it dawned on me at the weekend that the E3 cases might actually be reducing the OC quota year on year. The quota is a product of population for the region but then reduced by by existing immigration. So - the rise of the E3 visas will probably have increased Aussie immigration, and thus be reducing DV visas for the region.
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But E3 isn't immigration, so theoretically they shouldn't affect DV allocation.
 
But
Britsimon said:
That is a nice comparison. Essentially it shows that OC is pretty much on target to do what they did last year. For OC I think the aos figure could be quite high (due in part to the E3 cases). So If they stop now, OC would end up pretty much the same as last year. The 2013 CEAC data is slightly understated and neither year CEAC data includes aos.
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I might not be reading it right, but if meeting last year's number depends on all the CNs being issued visas, doesn't that line us up for an increase?
 
MattWatt said:
But E3 isn't immigration, so theoretically they shouldn't affect DV allocation.
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E3 is a temporary work visa, but that means a lot more Aussies who have put roots down and have a company that likes them. Ideal conditions for adjument of status to a work based immigrant.
 
Britsimon said:
You aren't reading it right... Not sure even what you read, but no is the short answer.
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The spreadsheet posted above. The right hand column gives its final number with the condition 'if all CN were issued'. If not visas, then what? If that means visas, surely that's unlikely.
 
MattWatt said:
Fair point.
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It still won't change the regional quota consideration -- those E3 people are considered non-immigrants:

http://canberra.usembassy.gov/e3visa/additional.html

E-3 status provides for entry on a non-permanent basis into the United States. Similar to E-1 and E-2 visa applicants, the E-3 must satisfy the consular officer that s/he intends to depart upon termination of status.​

Whether they go through AoS or not, the US government considers them residents of Australia, not immigrants to the US. There would have to be an increase in Australian Green Card holders over the year (through H1B conversion, family or whatever) for the Australian inflow to affect the DV quota allocation.
 
connectedspace said:
The spreadsheet posted above. The right hand column gives its final number with the condition 'if all CN were issued'. If not visas, then what? If that means visas, surely that's unlikely.
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I put this into the spreadsheet because KCC might need to assume that all visa's will be issued for the month before releasing the final numbers for September. This will not happen but its better than cancelling appointment if the quota is meet. So far there has been 26 visa's issued and 8 AP for July. As nearly all OC interviews are in the first half of the month this number will not change much. That might leave an extra 40 odd visa's available plus any that are used by mid August.
 
connectedspace said:
It still won't change the regional quota consideration -- those E3 people are considered non-immigrants:

http://canberra.usembassy.gov/e3visa/additional.html

E-3 status provides for entry on a non-permanent basis into the United States. Similar to E-1 and E-2 visa applicants, the E-3 must satisfy the consular officer that s/he intends to depart upon termination of status.​

Whether they go through AoS or not, the US government considers them residents of Australia, not immigrants to the US. There would have to be an increase in Australian Green Card holders over the year (through H1B conversion, family or whatever) for the Australian inflow to affect the DV quota allocation.
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Of course if they go through AOS they get green cards and become immigrants.... How would the US still consider them residents of Australia if they did AOS? I assumed simon was talking about this process. Just the same as someone who goes in on a student visa and adjusts becomes an immigrant.

That said, the LPR flow from Oceania is tiny in the overall numbers - see page 4 of https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/ois_lpr_fr_2012_2.pdf - so it doesn't really look as if E3s are big enough to make any noticeable difference.
 
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SusieQQQ said:
Of course if they go through AOS they get green cards and become immigrants.... How would the US still consider them residents of Australia if they did AOS? I assumed simon was talking about this process. Just the same as someone who goes in on a student visa and adjusts becomes an immigrant.
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So is the implication here that the E3 visa leads to higher immigration from Australia to the US?

Even if it does (and I'd be wary of accepting this before seeing data), the quota is allocated by considering the region as a whole. The number of E3 holders who convert to permanent residents would need to be substantial indeed before it mattered one bit. Since the only paths to doing that are by the DV lottery, conversion via H1-B and marriage, that sounds terribly unlikely.
 
Christiie said:
Well this sucks. Kiwi gal at 19xx - pretty much lost hope last month though. I lived in NYC for a year on a j1 right after uni and was so excited at the possibility of coming back. I'm also currently back here on vacation for my birthday so it's been bittersweet trip . Anyway I just wanted to pop on and say cheers to all the gurus for all the informative posts over this journey. It's been a great read at times haha. Congrats to all those who pulled through. Somebody pass me an effing beverage..
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Hey, so sorry about this, I was reading all these review with Aussies all talking about it. I'm a kiwi selected in DV2015 and my number is even worse at 21xx I had this awesome rush then when you get to learn the process this massive low especially seeing those numbers from the July Visa bulletin. I do hope (and I know people will apply their logic) that somehow Oceania goes current or at least 1 number a over yours and you can make it.
 
connectedspace said:
So is the implication here that the E3 visa leads to higher immigration from Australia to the US?

Even if it does (and I'd be wary of accepting this before seeing data), the quota is allocated by considering the region as a whole. The number of E3 holders who convert to permanent residents would need to be substantial indeed before it mattered one bit. Since the only paths to doing that are by the DV lottery, conversion via H1-B and marriage, that sounds terribly unlikely.
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Yes and I already posted the small % of Aus immigrants in a link in that post, so your point is....?
 
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