2014 DV Australian winners

[typo]

In recent years, AF have been getting around 24k, EU around 16-17k and AS around 9 - 9.5. This year the CEAC data is showing that EU is ahead of that curve and could get to 19k or so. AF will have to get a move on to even get to 22k and AS will probably be under 9500. That means the big 3 could take almost 50 by themselves - leaving SA and OC with "normal" quotas. I don't think it is all systems go. I know you have this sensible mathmatical theory about flooding OC and SA at the last minute - but that is not how they have ever done things before and it would be a pretty silly way to use the bandwidth of the embassies for interviews and processing. I think if OC and AS get any adjustment at all, it will be small.

Thanks for the data. I know those numbers are rough, but they appear to beef up the argument that selectee proportions are correlated with visa quotas/targets, and if that argument is true it makes it more likely that OC and SA will see big adjustments.

Here are the regions, listed by size, and the change that happened to the proportion of selectees they provided between DV2013 and DV2014 (so each region's growth/contraction relative to itself the year before):

• AFRICA -11%
• EUROPE +6%
• ASIA +9%
• SOUTH AMERICA +57%
• OC +44%
• NORTH AMERICA +8%

And here is a rough display of the growth/contraction in visa numbers you've implied is happening for the big 3 in DV2014, once again listed by region size:

• AFRICA -9%
• EUROPE +15%
• ASIA +3%

I wouldn't ditch your original assumption a long time ago about selectees proportions and what that might imply about visa quotas/targets, it's such a sane assumption.

Maybe my theory could be asking a lot (for the OC region to process approx. 750 visas in a month), but then again the big 3 regions (with more consulates, yes) process between 700 (Asia) and 1800 (Africa) visas every single month. And so, for this unique year if the consulates in OC and South America need to pull their weight in the final stretch so the DoS can fully and accurately achieve its DV objective then that could be a good enough reason for this year to be different to all others. Yeah my case for big adjustments for OC and SA isn't strong, but I don't think the arguments against it are either.

We should bet a six pack of Budweiser, that way if I luck out on a visa I won't be in your new country to actually buy it and then I'd still come away with a small win.

 

[typo]

Thanks for the data. I know those numbers are rough, but they appear to beef up the argument that selectee proportions are correlated with visa quotas/targets, and if that argument is true it makes it more likely that OC and SA will see big adjustments.

Here are the regions, listed by size, and the change that happened to the proportion of selectees they provided between DV2013 and DV2014 (so each region's growth/contraction relative to itself the year before):

• AFRICA -11%
• EUROPE +6%
• ASIA +9%
• SOUTH AMERICA +57%
• OC +44%
• NORTH AMERICA +8%

And here is a rough display of the growth/contraction in visa numbers you've implied is happening for the big 3 in DV2014, once again listed by region size:

• AFRICA -9%
• EUROPE +15%
• ASIA +3%

I wouldn't ditch your original assumption a long time ago about selectees proportions and what that might imply about visa quotas/targets, it's such a sane assumption.

Maybe my theory could be asking a lot (for the OC region to process approx. 750 visas in a month), but then again the big 3 regions (with more consulates, yes) process between 700 (Asia) and 1800 (Africa) visas every single month. And so, for this unique year if the consulates in OC and South America need to pull their weight in the final stretch so the DoS can fully and accurately achieve its DV objective then that could be a good enough reason for this year to be different to all others. Yeah my case for big adjustments for OC and SA isn't strong, but I don't think the arguments against it are either.

We should bet a six pack of Budweiser, that way if I luck out on a visa I won't be in your new country to actually buy it and then I'd still come away with a small win.

Even if Africa, Europe and Asia see big increases in the amount of visas allocated to them, I want to ask why can't the unused NACARA visas come into play? Thus bringing the amount of visas on the table to 55,000 and making it more likely for big OC and SA adjustments. Is it just a precedent thing again?

 

[Britsimon]

It still won't change the regional quota consideration -- those E3 people are considered non-immigrants:

http://canberra.usembassy.gov/e3visa/additional.html

E-3 status provides for entry on a non-permanent basis into the United States. Similar to E-1 and E-2 visa applicants, the E-3 must satisfy the consular officer that s/he intends to depart upon termination of status.​

Whether they go through AoS or not, the US government considers them residents of Australia, not immigrants to the US. There would have to be an increase in Australian Green Card holders over the year (through H1B conversion, family or whatever) for the Australian inflow to affect the DV quota allocation.

Wow you are making this hard work. If the adjust to LPR (green card) then they count - right???.

 

[Britsimon]

Of course if they go through AOS they get green cards and become immigrants.... How would the US still consider them residents of Australia if they did AOS? I assumed simon was talking about this process. Just the same as someone who goes in on a student visa and adjusts becomes an immigrant.

That said, the LPR flow from Oceania is tiny in the overall numbers - see page 4 of https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/ois_lpr_fr_2012_2.pdf - so it doesn't really look as if E3s are big enough to make any noticeable difference.

Thank you SusieQQQ...

 

[Britsimon]

Thanks for the data. I know those numbers are rough, but they appear to beef up the argument that selectee proportions are correlated with visa quotas/targets, and if that argument is true it makes it more likely that OC and SA will see big adjustments.

Here are the regions, listed by size, and the change that happened to the proportion of selectees they provided between DV2013 and DV2014 (so each region's growth/contraction relative to itself the year before):

• AFRICA -11%
• EUROPE +6%
• ASIA +9%
• SOUTH AMERICA +57%
• OC +44%
• NORTH AMERICA +8%

And here is a rough display of the growth/contraction in visa numbers you've implied is happening for the big 3 in DV2014, once again listed by region size:

• AFRICA -9%
• EUROPE +15%
• ASIA +3%

I wouldn't ditch your original assumption a long time ago about selectees proportions and what that might imply about visa quotas/targets, it's such a sane assumption.

Maybe my theory could be asking a lot (for the OC region to process approx. 750 visas in a month), but then again the big 3 regions (with more consulates, yes) process between 700 (Asia) and 1800 (Africa) visas every single month. And so, for this unique year if the consulates in OC and South America need to pull their weight in the final stretch so the DoS can fully and accurately achieve its DV objective then that could be a good enough reason for this year to be different to all others. Yeah my case for big adjustments for OC and SA isn't strong, but I don't think the arguments against it are either.

We should bet a six pack of Budweiser, that way if I luck out on a visa I won't be in your new country to actually buy it and then I'd still come away with a small win.

I would take the bet, but I wouldn't enjoy drinking the winnings, so I would prefer not to bet in the first place. You seem to want to cling on to your belief, and I get that. Best of luck.

 

[MattWatt]

Curious - has anyone called KCC yet to see if there's any update for OC September?

Chatter when the Aug VB was released was to wait for the 15th and check again.

 

[connectedspace]

Wow you are making this hard work. If the adjust to LPR (green card) then they count - right???.

I think the waters of this argument are muddy enough. I might have missed something obvious. Let's leave it at that.

 

[Britsimon]

Uh, maybe I misunderstood you several posts upthread. I got the impression that you meant the high number of E3 visa holders in the states was somehow affecting the visa quota for OC. Could still have missed something I guess.

But I don't think this conversation is helping anyone.

No problem, I'm not irritated...

What I meant is that roughly 2000 to 3000 Aussies have been entering the USA on E3 visas for the last few years (since 2005). In every case there is an employer who has at least been willing to apply for labor certification. The Aussies will have developed a taste for the USA and may not want to leave. Some will marry US citizens, some will adjust to LPR via EB immigration and so on. Although OC region may only see 5k immigrant cases per year, I'll bet the majority of those are Aussie, and whilst Susie only provided the numbers up to 2012 you can bet that the E3 cases issued previously are starting to build a wave of interest in people doing aos (to LPR).

 

[Joshdeltm8]

I just called the K C C last night regarding my status ( OC000022XX) and the lady on the other end told me that I can reapply for DV2016 . I was so saddened .
I still didn't wana believe it but i ll keep checking the status till end of August

 

[Britsimon]

I just called the K C C last night regarding my status ( OC000022XX) and the lady on the other end told me that I can reapply for DV2016 . I was so saddened .
I still didn't wana believe it but i ll keep checking the status till end of August

Sorry to hear that. As discussed before OC entries have a MUCH higher chance of selection, so perhaps you will win again with a low number - several forum members have had exactly that happen.

 

[MattWatt]

I just called the K C C last night regarding my status ( OC000022XX) and the lady on the other end told me that I can reapply for DV2016 . I was so saddened .
I still didn't wana believe it but i ll keep checking the status till end of August

Did you ask at all about why the CN allocation hadn't increased for Sept? I'm planning on calling tonight, but interested in what others are being told.

 

[Codyf21]

Sorry to hear that. As discussed before OC entries have a MUCH higher chance of selection, so perhaps you will win again with a low number - several forum members have had exactly that happen.

Really feel for everyone in DV2014 that has had this happen. I am 21xx for DV2015 and really only looking at it as something that might perhaps happen as opposed to planning that it will. It feels like getting a low number is now a lottery within a lottery.

 

[hgavin]

Thinking I possibly should have taken up that J1 visa when I had the chance... Never the less, based on the failure of my DV chances this year (18**) off to Britain in 3 months time to live for two years! Should be fun, I've never been outside of Australasia.

But sorry to hear about the lack of news of any chance to Oceania's September bulletin.

 

[Codyf21]

I wonder if there is anyway can convince them to start DV2015 from the back of the list. With me being DV201521xx it be nice if they only called numbers from 2100 upwards in the next visa bulletin haha one can only dream they reverse the order.

 

[connectedspace]

Yeah, it's a sucky morning. It's even bleaker to think that the DV is going to be scrapped in favour of expanding the H1B program, requiring employers to sponsor prospective immigrants at enormous expense. Unless you're a high-flying tech specialist or a young foreign graduate of an American university, you're out of luck. The days of Ellis Island are long, long gone.

 

[MattWatt]

Yeah, it's a sucky morning. It's even bleaker to think that the DV is going to be scrapped in favour of expanding the H1B program, requiring employers to sponsor prospective immigrants at enormous expense. Unless you're a high-flying tech specialist or a young foreign graduate of an American university, you're out of luck. The days of Ellis Island are long, long gone.

Immigration reform is a long way off being implemented. The DV program (as has been stated here in numerous posts) is written in US law. A change to the program requires a change in legislation, and that has been held up (and rejected) in the Senate. Given how close DV-2016 registration is, at least that lottery draw could be seen as "safe" (of course, there's no guarenteeing the future draws).

Personally, I'm planning on an E3 transfer through my current employer at this stage, and aim for an AOS via either EB or DV-2016.

 

[Joshdeltm8]

Thanks Britsimon . I did enter for the DV2015. Didn't get selected . Well better luck next time .

Sorry to hear that. As discussed before OC entries have a MUCH higher chance of selection, so perhaps you will win again with a low number - several forum members have had exactly that happen.

 

[connectedspace]

Immigration reform is a long way off being implemented. The DV program (as has been stated here in numerous posts) is written in US law. A change to the program requires a change in legislation, and that has been held up (and rejected) in the Senate. Given how close DV-2016 registration is, at least that lottery draw could be seen as "safe" (of course, there's no guarenteeing the future draws).

Personally, I'm planning on an E3 transfer through my current employer at this stage, and aim for an AOS via either EB or DV-2016.

It has been held up, that's true. It also has some allies on the Democrat side, who see scrapping it as a blow against African migrants (which it would be). There's a couple of years in the old boy yet. I'm just gloomy.

Now what's 'EB'? I thought the only path to residence via E3 is the DV or family.

 

[Joshdeltm8]

Yeah I did ask her and the outcome was because there has been a high number of processes for OC and see also mentioned to me that it's high likely chance that they will increase the CN .
Didn't make sence but she sounded like she just woke up. Then again I have no idea how it all works because I qualified as a Fijian citizen . I live in Australaia now . I am guessing there is not stand of order which country in Oceania get selected first or last . The CN is randomly generated . Would you have a clue or any idea lets say of during the registration , for example, I registered for DV2014 on the last day . Maybe if I registered earlier I would have had a better CN ??

Did you ask at all about why the CN allocation hadn't increased for Sept? I'm planning on calling tonight, but interested in what others are being told.

did

 

[MattWatt]

It has been held up, that's true. It also has some allies on the Democrat side, who see scrapping it as a blow against African migrants (which it would be). There's a couple of years in the old boy yet. I'm just gloomy.

Now what's 'EB'? I thought the only path to residence via E3 is the DV or family.

EB = Employment Based.

If you're lucky enough, you can convince a US employer to either:

1. Sponsor you for a work-based non-immigrant visa (such as E3 or H1B);
2. Sponsor you for an Employment Based immigrant visa (http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/immigrate/types/employment.html); or
3. Both - Non-immigrant visa is generally easier and quicker to obtain, and allows you to work for that company whilst your EB immigrant visa is being processed.