I'm probably more alone now than ever with this opinion, but I still believe that big adjustments can't be ruled out for OC and South America. As my previous posts put it – in a year when it is likely that OC and South America will have selectees that miss out it, the mathematically optimal way to achieve perfectly fair distribution between regions is to only allocate visas to those two regions in the last 1/12 of the available time because they contribute less than 1/12 of the total number of selectees. e.g. assess the demand that exists in the much larger regions by processing those larger regions first. OC and South America should be allocated visas only at the very last practical moment, and that moment has not yet arrived. I only feel like contributing this opinion because I don't think it's time yet for people in OC and South America to despair. OC, South America and North America could all be sitting on zero until that very last practical moment for allocation and that would still make mathematical sense in a particular year like this one when most regions will miss out (I believe they're not at zero because of a balance between doing it correct mathematically and being practical, and that means the current numbers for those regions should not even for one iota be read into). These stalled numbers were only released because the visa bulletin needed to come out on its regular schedule to inform about the other non-DV visa categories. So, my call is that between now and the actual September bulletin OC and South America will see large adjustments, Africa possibly none (it is the largest region and therefore the first that should have had its demand assessed when a year happens like this one), and I don't know about the other regions... maybe small adjustments. My opinion is possibly biased by the fact I'm OC...19XX.
2014 DV Australian winners
- Thread starter AU.Dan
- Start date
Britsimon
Super Moderator
I'm sorry but the theory sounds even more daft now than it did before. It makes no sense on so many levels I cannot even begin to explain them.
However, I do agree that occurs and said in particular should stand by for a last minute change. ..
connectedspace
Active Member
Couldn't have said it better. The current numbers just don't smell right. Last time I said that, I pulled off some innocent-seeming plasterboard whose back had a forest of mold. The nose doesn't lie.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
I agree with you both. It feels like we haven't seen the end of this DV tear, at least for OC and SA.
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
OC in dv 13 = 731
SA in dv 13 = 938
In dv 14 up to 3 june 2014
OC = 486
SA = 1023
With july and august the quota will be surely met! And as you can see in SA it already happened...
Most of our predictions included Nacara input, but it seems that is not the case by now
in OC region I believe they have a lot of AOS cases...
Aren't we expecting OC and SA to have increased visa quotas this year though, because the proportions they make up of the total selectees increased so significantly? (3.00% and 3.28% respectively in DV14, compared to 2.08% and 2.09% in DV13)OC in dv 13 = 731
SA in dv 13 = 938
In dv 14 up to 3 june 2014
OC = 486
SA = 1023
With july and august the quota will be surely met! And as you can see in SA it already happened...
Most of our predictions included Nacara input, but it seems that is not the case by now
in OC region I believe they have a lot of AOS cases...
That's okay I won't ask you to explain if it's laborious. But could you help understand why a small adjustment is more likely than the large adjustment that I predict? I'll happily drop my daft argument if I understood that... there's probably many things I don't grasp.
connectedspace
Active Member
OC in dv 13 = 731
SA in dv 13 = 938
In dv 14 up to 3 june 2014
OC = 486
SA = 1023
With july and august the quota will be surely met! And as you can see in SA it already happened...
Most of our predictions included Nacara input, but it seems that is not the case by now
in OC region I believe they have a lot of AOS cases...
I read those numbers differently, at least for OC. To reach 731 issued, OC needs half of the visas issued between October and June to be issued over July, August and September. The CN increments have been tiny: 85 between May and June, 125 between June and July and 150 between July and August. Unless we're seeing basically two visas per three CN increase, there should be an increase in the September cutoff. Or, there is a truly phenomenal number of AOS cases out there.
I feel they want to be careful about getting all the results back from June, or even July interviews before setting final cut-offs.
Last edited:
connectedspace
Active Member
I believe the current consensus is OC saw no increase in its quota, for whatever reason. (Maybe it wasn't filled in 2012.)
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
The oc quota is not suppose to absolutely meet the 731 of last year it can be less or bit more ! But I believe in this year it will be around 650~700 so with two months process and AOS cases that will IT my friend...
I hope just as simon to see a re adjustment in the VB but I have a big doubt
connectedspace
Active Member
The oc quota is not suppose to absolutely meet the 731 of last year it can be less or bit more ! But I believe in this year it will be around 650~700 so with two months process and AOS cases that will IT my friend...
I hope just as simon to see a re adjustment in the VB but I have a big doubt
Why 650-700? Not saying you're wrong, but I can't find a reason to support this. Did another region score a bigger quota?
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
The global increase of the selectees in this bloody dv14, was just a total fiasco from kcc.
And I'm affraid that same senario will happen in 2015....
Oh that's interesting, maybe I should keep better pace with the discussion then. Is there a post that can explain? Shame if that's the case, I always felt that linking visa quotas and selectee numbers for each region was a natural and decent assumption.
Their proportions I mean of course.
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
As you can see above SA has taken more than last year quota at end of june already, and EU region according to the Data will surely go above the last year quota! ''May be'' SA took some of OC visas, but I won't be a lot! But the region with a significant decrease IMO this year is AF !
guestgulkan
Well-Known Member
I've had two E3 visas. I was internally transferred by my Australian company to the USA office so it was very easy.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Look at the numbers Clady posted above. The quotas are almost filled so they may squeeze a few more in, but not many.
connectedspace
Active Member
Bearing in mind that all posts on this matter are conjecture:
The assertion made above was that while OC's proportion of selectees went up, its quota went down to the benefit of SA and EU. So no, quota is not proportional to the region's share of selectees.
Looking at previous years' numbers, OC's quota has been as high as the 800s, and as low as the 500s, without any particular correlation to its number of selectees.
So while I'd like to think it isn't happening, it's possible EU and SA are sucking out OC's oxygen and the game is over, with OC this year's Brazil in the DV World Cup.
I lean more towards 'possible', Vladek leans towards 'certain'.
Last edited:
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
The problem with assuming quotas are proportional to selectees is that there is an implicit assumption that both return rates and rejection rates are uniform across regions if you do that. Whereas they aren't - so eg for a given expected amount of issued visas, you need to select more people from higher rejections/fallout regions than from lower ones. Even if the quota is the same the amount of selectees will be different. And before you all start talking about how Australians have a low rejection rate, you are all referencing OC (not Aus only) selectees, which includes Fiji, which apparently has a high rejection rate.
Thanks for replying. But does anyone actually know what KCC's quotas (or 'targets' for another word) are for each region? If not, then my theory can't be thrown out yet. I don't want people to turn away from this forum (or their hopes) unnecessarily early.
It won't actually be possible to find any correlation for OC because OC has almost always gone current. 731 tells you nothing about the quota that year, the quota/target for OC could have been even 1000 or more that year (and these current years all along) and we wouldn't know because current means there were enough visas to satisfy existing demand. Your statement about no correlation could be correct, but somebody would need to look at the history for regions that have not gone current (where visas issued might reveal something about available quotas).
For exactly the same reasons that I believe you can't read into bulletin numbers for OC and SA this unique year, I also believe you can't read one little bit into visas issued thus far (so it's not possible to say SA is 'sucking' visas from OC). It's a mathematically sensible filling strategy if both regions see a large adjustment at the last practical moment, the number of visas issued thus far could be zero for those regions and that would not be a concern, they're only not zero because of practical considerations and thus the current level they're at means nothing.
Appropriate analogy about Brazil because I'm in Rio at the moment and I also feel like I'm losing.