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HAS NOT BEEN SELECTED in DV2016. Still hoping for a miracale with my high EU CN in DV2015...

Hm, I do not think that later cases have different distribution then cases currently interviewed. We have data from different countries (that has been updated so far in CEAC) and later cases also are from different countries. For example, I do not see a reason why the data from range 20000-30000...

Thanks Simon for clarifying some issues. You blog is very helpful. Please take a loook at the image attached below. I made a comparison between your calculations of response rate of March, and my calculations based on the last CEAC extract. We can see that the process is "maturing" (as you have...

Ok. Thanks. I've done some calculations for EU today. Those calculations are based on the last CEAC extract. I came up with the following numbers: EU Family rate = 2,248 Family rate - family members per entrant. I used only cases from range 1-30300, and excluded cases that are "At NVC" or " In...

Hi Simon, I have a question about the last CEAC extract. There is a lot of "At NVC" status for old CNs. Are those people who did not file DS-260? Almost 50% of selectees from EU do not file DS-260?

Thanks Simon. I will follow your advice.

Hi, Just wanted to hear your opinion about the following things concerning DS-260 1. I was once in USA. I entered on J1 visa, but later (in USA) I have changed the status to B1 to stay a little longer. My change of status was aproved and I left USA few months later. In my passport I have only...

DV4ROGER: I agree with your calculations! Good job! Something I call "CN per visa rate" seems to be stable for each region after some point and applying the DV2014 "CN per visa rate" to your current calculations will give us the final (estimated) cut-offs in DV2015 for each region.

DV4ROGER: Do you have an update on your calculations?

Right. I forgot about the 7% limit.

Do we know how many visas were issued to Nigeria in DV2014 so far? I know that CEAC shows only the number of visas issued at each consulate, and this does not mean that all visas issued in Nigeria went to Nigeria citizens (and some Nigerian citizens were interviewed in different consulates...

Ok. Thanks for the info.

Guys I need help. Do you know why Iran is not included here: http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2013AnnualReport/FY13AnnualReport-TableXV.pdf Do they issue visas for Iran in different country?

Thanks Simon. This is how the density of CN for EU looks like right now from CEAC data (see atachment) After EU18000 (huge drop) density seems to be constant. Previously somebody wrote that the further we go the lesser CN we have, but it seems this is a myth. Succes rate around 73%. Familly...

Thanks Susie for the link. I will do more stats later on, since now I have to follow my normal life... ...that is go to work :) I am hoping that DV2015 without Nigeria will have higher EU quota. I am also still hoping that September VB for DV2014 will raise the EU cut-off. At least that is...

Ups. Did I missed it? Can you repeat that link? I only saw a link with total number of entrants, and number of selectees per country. Sad, but true... I have a high CN in DV2015 (EU 44xxx). I would like to know what to do with my life in the next 12 months. Prepare to sell the house?, send...

Yes indeed this is what FAM notes are talking about, but I do not think it is that simple, because of two things: 1. I've tried to calculate the population of all countries eligible in DV2014 (based on wikipedia population of each country) and this is how it looks like (population in millions)...

Thanks SussieQQQ. We know the total entries (for example 9,374,191 qualified entries for DV2014) but I would need to know how many entries where there per each region. Sloner gave us a proof (video link) that there is a regional quota (thanks Sloner for this link). From the same video we know...

Guys - don't give up hope! Let wait till the end of the fiscal year. DV2014 is unique. KCC seems to be unpredictable. I personally do not believe that current cut-offs will be the final ones untill I will see the September VB. Furthermore there is something in my calculation that doesn't fit...

Rafikbo76: Did you notice that there are some additional CN in this file compared to CEAC data gathered on 06.03.2014? I am talking about low CNs (not the ones added in this month because of the new cut-off). For example please take a look at the following very low CNs: EU316, EU380, EU627...