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Final DV2014 CEAC Data

Thanks for the reply. Sadly I found two errors in my database. I have to check all entries again but expect a considerable change (predictions will be -5% off).





CollingwoodRuck said:
Hi Roger,
I have been away from the forum for quite a while mainly working in the three C's: Connecticut, Colorado and California!
Your data looks very cl0se to mine - which I posted back in Feb using the formulas and census data.
(I used 80.9% as the regional split factor; which back-fits the previous years precisely!)

Back then, I was able to predict that for 50k it would turn out:
[The number in brackets is an interesting prediction (mainly extrapolation) that used the CEAC data at the half-way mark.]

AF 20863 (22164)
EU 18725 (20248)
AS 8225 (7142)
SA 1325 (1468)
OC 862 (816)
I'm not too worried about the OC mismatch; anecdotal travels round Nolita in NYC indicate that most of the ANZ population there have interviews.
AOP is likely to be of significant impact.

So in the end, I guess that all in all the data reflects pretty accurately - what the law says it should.
Click to expand...
 
The following table consists of revised predictions for DV-2014 and DV-2015 quotas (since I messed up the data transfer for my earlier calculations). I hope the data isn't spoiled this time but I sure will recheck once more.
The quotas in Simon's CEAC 9/30 are 44.05, 35.92,16.03, 2.70 and 1.30. So there's an error of 2% or less for the big four. The table itself is not really predicting CEAC but CP+AoS. Comparing the quotas with CEAC 9/30 assumes that the quotas are mirrored in CEAC. This is obviously not true for OC. I will comment the calculations at a later time.

Predictions.jpg


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I hope you enjoy it.
 
DV4ROGER said:
The following table consists of revised predictions for DV-2014 and DV-2015 quotas (since I messed up the data transfer for my earlier calculations). I hope the data isn't spoiled this time but I sure will recheck once more.
The quotas in Simon's CEAC 9/30 are 44.05, 35.92,16.03, 2.70 and 1.30. So there's an error of 2% or less for the big four. The table itself is not really predicting CEAC but CP+AoS. Comparing the quotas with CEAC 9/30 assumes that the quotas are mirrored in CEAC. This is obviously not true for OC. I will comment the calculations at a later time.

Predictions.jpg


​
I hope you enjoy it.
Click to expand...

Awesome work - thanks!

I think the percentage of AoS cases is likely to vary by region (I'm guessing EU has a higher percentage of AoS cases compared to AF region). So - based on the 52.5 number (most likely to be about what was issued in DV2014), CEAC numbers (non AoS) should end up around AF - 21.2, EU - 19 - AS- 8 and SA 1.4. OC is a bit stickier - I would be expecting about 700 max (in CEAC).
 
Britsimon said:
Awesome work - thanks!

I think the percentage of AoS cases is likely to vary by region (I'm guessing EU has a higher percentage of AoS cases compared to AF region). So - based on the 52.5 number (most likely to be about what was issued in DV2014), CEAC numbers (non AoS) should end up around AF - 21.2, EU - 19 - AS- 8 and SA 1.4. OC is a bit stickier - I would be expecting about 700 max (in CEAC).
Click to expand...

Not sure what you mean here. I'm inferring you expect up to 700 visas issued in the CEAC numbers for OC, which means you expect 100 or more AoS cases? (134 if the second column is the quota we arrive at.)
 
connectedspace said:
Not sure what you mean here. I'm inferring you expect up to 700 visas issued in the CEAC numbers for OC, which means you expect 100 or more AoS cases? (134 if the second column is the quota we arrive at.)
Click to expand...

At the moment it is hard to be sure how many Aos cases there are for OC. Reading between the lines, Roger is, I think, uncomfortable with the OC number because the aos number for last year seemed too high. So, I'm uncomfortable with going too far past 700 also, but yes that is just ceac.
 
DV4ROGER said:
Predictions.jpg


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I hope you enjoy it.
Click to expand...

DV4ROGER: I agree with your calculations! Good job!

Something I call "CN per visa rate" seems to be stable for each region after some point and applying the DV2014 "CN per visa rate" to your current calculations will give us the final (estimated) cut-offs in DV2015 for each region.
 
szym said:
DV4ROGER: I agree with your calculations! Good job!

Something I call "CN per visa rate" seems to be stable for each region after some point and applying the DV2014 "CN per visa rate" to your current calculations will give us the final (estimated) cut-offs in DV2015 for each region.
Click to expand...


Just be careful with AF region - Nigeria will have changed the density greatly.
 
DV4ROGER said:
The table below are INA 203(c) predictions for DV-2015. I used the same population estimates as above (est. for July 1st, 2014). At a later time I will look up the estimates for July 1st, 2015. Don't expect a significant change, though. For your convenience I included the numbers for 50,770 issued visas.

Predction_DV2015.jpg


I'm looking forward to the guesswork about maximal case numbers.
Click to expand...
Will really be waiting for this a lot. May it hit AF80000 or above
 
Simon, by when do you think we will be able to get DV2015 data on CEAC? It's been 2 months since the start of the 2015 fiscal year and they haven't started updating CEAC yet.
 
Sammy967 said:
Simon, by when do you think we will be able to get DV2015 data on CEAC? It's been 2 months since the start of the 2015 fiscal year and they haven't started updating CEAC yet.
Click to expand...

I keep checking every few days, so I am hoping they will do a bulk load at the end of this month, but I really don't know for sure, it could easily be another month!
 
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