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Final DV2014 CEAC Data

Britsimon

Super Moderator
OK - once again I would like to thank and recognize Rafikbo76 for his efforts and generosity in making the CEAC script available for us to use. It has been very useful in watching the progress of the DV process through these data extracts and hopefully the process will be less mysterious because of this. Well done Rafik!


Here is the "final" DV2014 data file. In theory there could be some updates to the CEAC data in the next day or two - but pretty much this is our ending position. As you can see in the screenshot - they managed to issue 50770 visas to consular processing cases. We may be missing a few cases that were not updated in CEAC and we know that AoS cases are not included in these numbers (which we think are around 2000). So - it is likely that when the publish the final numbers for DV2014 they will be reporting around 53,000 visas issued - over the 50k limit due to using NACARA allocated visas. At least they did go well over the stated limit of 50k. AF received nearly 3500 visas in September, so that would never have happened had it not been for NACARA visas being reclaimed.

Many many people missed out. THe AP number shows ~4800, but actually the true AP number was higher than that as a lot of cases don't show derivatives as on AP when the principal is on AP. We also know that some (perhaps many) of the ready cases are really cases that were on AP (i.e. had been interviewed and were either never cleared from AP or waitlisted for a visa that never came).

We also know that as well as the 77.5k cases shown there were many that missed out because their numbers were over the cutoffs for August and September. So - demand for the elusive Green Card probably was higher than previous years - I would say a minimum of 95k (probably over 100k) wanted the Green Card with well over 75k of those who were qualified. There is no doubt that the planers screwed up enormously by picking so many selectees, and sadly, DV2015 will be a similar story.

http://goo.gl/4Fd0Wr

update930.jpg
 

DV4ROGER

Active Member
The following table gives the predictions made by INA 203(c) of how 50,770 visas are to be distributed among the regions. I pulled the data from http://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics for LPR flow and from http://www.census.gov for world population estimates. Both datasets are officially published by the USA and were available as of March 2013.

Predction_DV2014.png
 

SusieQQQ

Well-Known Member
Wow...you found the elusive regional quotas?

So EU and AS took some of OC and AF quota. Looks small in the numbers, we know from here the heartbreak when you are one of the handful to miss out on a visa number being available :(
 

Jonge

Active Member
OK - once again I would like to thank and recognize Rafikbo76 for his efforts and generosity in making the CEAC script available for us to use. It has been very useful in watching the progress of the DV process through these data extracts and hopefully the process will be less mysterious because of this. Well done Rafik!


Here is the "final" DV2014 data file. In theory there could be some updates to the CEAC data in the next day or two - but pretty much this is our ending position. As you can see in the screenshot - they managed to issue 50770 visas to consular processing cases. We may be missing a few cases that were not updated in CEAC and we know that AoS cases are not included in these numbers (which we think are around 2000). So - it is likely that when the publish the final numbers for DV2014 they will be reporting around 53,000 visas issued - over the 50k limit due to using NACARA allocated visas. At least they did go well over the stated limit of 50k. AF received nearly 3500 visas in September, so that would never have happened had it not been for NACARA visas being reclaimed.

Many many people missed out. THe AP number shows ~4800, but actually the true AP number was higher than that as a lot of cases don't show derivatives as on AP when the principal is on AP. We also know that some (perhaps many) of the ready cases are really cases that were on AP (i.e. had been interviewed and were either never cleared from AP or waitlisted for a visa that never came).

We also know that as well as the 77.5k cases shown there were many that missed out because their numbers were over the cutoffs for August and September. So - demand for the elusive Green Card probably was higher than previous years - I would say a minimum of 95k (probably over 100k) wanted the Green Card with well over 75k of those who were qualified. There is no doubt that the planers screwed up enormously by picking so many selectees, and sadly, DV2015 will be a similar story.

http://goo.gl/4Fd0Wr

View attachment 199

I would also like to thank @rafikbo76 for sharing the script and you @Britsimon for continuing the good work started. Indeed the exclusion of Nigeria does free up about 3,500 visas but also significantly diminishes the impact of the so called 'Holes Theory'.
 

DV4ROGER

Active Member
The table below are INA 203(c) predictions for DV-2015. I used the same population estimates as above (est. for July 1st, 2014). At a later time I will look up the estimates for July 1st, 2015. Don't expect a significant change, though. For your convenience I included the numbers for 50,770 issued visas.

Predction_DV2015.jpg


I'm looking forward to the guesswork about maximal case numbers.
 
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DV4ROGER

Active Member
Wow...you found the elusive regional quotas?

So EU and AS took some of OC and AF quota. Looks small in the numbers, we know from here the heartbreak when you are one of the handful to miss out on a visa number being available :(

I hope the missing OC cases took "unexpectedly" the AoS route. I'm quite pleased with the accuracy for AF, EU, AS and SA. The slowdown for EU and AS we saw in the past few weeks indicates that KCC/DoS themselves considered the current quotas of these regions high.
 

Britsimon

Super Moderator
We'll done on the calculations Roger - pretty darn close, and no one has come that close to understanding what KCC/DoS were trying to achieve. I agree on the OC number, it could well be that the E3 visa is causing that anomaly as the numbers for that visa type have been building for a few years.
 
OK - once again I would like to thank and recognize Rafikbo76 for his efforts and generosity in making the CEAC script available for us to use. It has been very useful in watching the progress of the DV process through these data extracts and hopefully the process will be less mysterious because of this. Well done Rafik!


Here is the "final" DV2014 data file. In theory there could be some updates to the CEAC data in the next day or two - but pretty much this is our ending position. As you can see in the screenshot - they managed to issue 50770 visas to consular processing cases. We may be missing a few cases that were not updated in CEAC and we know that AoS cases are not included in these numbers (which we think are around 2000). So - it is likely that when the publish the final numbers for DV2014 they will be reporting around 53,000 visas issued - over the 50k limit due to using NACARA allocated visas. At least they did go well over the stated limit of 50k. AF received nearly 3500 visas in September, so that would never have happened had it not been for NACARA visas being reclaimed.

Many many people missed out. THe AP number shows ~4800, but actually the true AP number was higher than that as a lot of cases don't show derivatives as on AP when the principal is on AP. We also know that some (perhaps many) of the ready cases are really cases that were on AP (i.e. had been interviewed and were either never cleared from AP or waitlisted for a visa that never came).

We also know that as well as the 77.5k cases shown there were many that missed out because their numbers were over the cutoffs for August and September. So - demand for the elusive Green Card probably was higher than previous years - I would say a minimum of 95k (probably over 100k) wanted the Green Card with well over 75k of those who were qualified. There is no doubt that the planers screwed up enormously by picking so many selectees, and sadly, DV2015 will be a similar story.

http://goo.gl/4Fd0Wr

View attachment 199
Thanks Simon. I hope you'll always be around on the forum. I will be popping in once in a while. My phone number is +xxx-xx-xxx-xxxx. Email xxxxxxxxa @Britsimon
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Sm1smom

Super Moderator
@johnnybanda: I've edited your post and removed your publicly displayed personal information for your own protection. Please PM your contact information to Simon.
 

DV4ROGER

Active Member
We'll done on the calculations Roger - pretty darn close, and no one has come that close to understanding what KCC/DoS were trying to achieve. I agree on the OC number, it could well be that the E3 visa is causing that anomaly as the numbers for that visa type have been building for a few years.
I hope your E3 visa assumption will prove true when we have the AoS data. Since OC has a demographic factor of 1.62 we're talking about some additional 60 principals who went AoS. Might well be.
 

Britsimon

Super Moderator
I hope your E3 visa assumption will prove true when we have the AoS data. Since OC has a demographic factor of 1.62 we're talking about some additional 60 principals who went AoS. Might well be.


It might be a while before we have the numbers to prove the assumption....
 

Britsimon

Super Moderator
Hi Simon
I'm looking at the 2013 CEAC spreadsheets. Do you consider these comprehensive?

No. There is a big chunk of data missing (mainly in the first 3 months of the year). The 2013 CEAC data only pulls ~45k and we know that 51k were issued (including AoS).
 

DV4ROGER

Active Member
No. There is a big chunk of data missing (mainly in the first 3 months of the year). The 2013 CEAC data only pulls ~45k and we know that 51k were issued (including AoS).
I'm afraid I have to revoke my calculations above. In doing the calculations for 2013 I discovered two wrongly formatted entries in my Excel sheets. This will change the outcome massively. I have to recheck the whole sheets once more and will inform you later.
 

Britsimon

Super Moderator
I'm afraid I have to revoke my calculations above. In doing the calculations for 2013 I discovered two wrongly formatted entries in my Excel sheets. This will change the outcome massively. I have to recheck the whole sheets once more and will inform you later.

Look forward to seeing the updates.
 

CollingwoodRuck

Registered Users (C)
The following table gives the predictions made by INA 203(c) of how 50,770 visas are to be distributed among the regions. I pulled the data from http://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics for LPR flow and from http://www.census.gov for world population estimates. Both datasets are officially published by the USA and were available as of March 2013.

Predction_DV2014.png
Hi Roger,
I have been away from the forum for quite a while mainly working in the three C's: Connecticut, Colorado and California!
Your data looks very cl0se to mine - which I posted back in Feb using the formulas and census data.
(I used 80.9% as the regional split factor; which back-fits the previous years precisely!)

Back then, I was able to predict that for 50k it would turn out:
[The number in brackets is an interesting prediction (mainly extrapolation) that used the CEAC data at the half-way mark.]

AF 20863 (22164)
EU 18725 (20248)
AS 8225 (7142)
SA 1325 (1468)
OC 862 (816)
I'm not too worried about the OC mismatch; anecdotal travels round Nolita in NYC indicate that most of the ANZ population there have interviews.
AOP is likely to be of significant impact.

So in the end, I guess that all in all the data reflects pretty accurately - what the law says it should.
 
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