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CEAC DATA UP TO 07-03-2014

motamo said:
hi
I a have a question about below link:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gXQxNj7q7uYuFS9wtxyDM5wCvlUbiUkmzC5W1JG5Phg/edit?pli=1#gid=1133734000
How did you get this site or document??
what's your refrence???

best regards
motamo
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Oh come on dude. Is repeated hundreds of times! From here are the data https://ceac.state.gov/CEACStatTracker/Status.aspx?eQs=o/iS8zDpeAKjMWCuebHqOw==
An adorable friend (Rafikbo76) here run a script to collect all the data, and you (me too) have it in a silver plate, ready.
 
OK, As we head into the final stretch I think some people will want to watch the CEAC data. The extractions are generally most complete when run around the 2nd or 3rd of the month to see the prevuious months updates, however, people may want to see an interim file. So I ran an extract last night. Rafikbo76 provided his script and all I have done is run it - so the credit is due to him.

"https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8FBEmYkzURaRm5VckM1ai1IdFk/edit?usp=sharing"

I haven't added the summary page - but did add the totals on each column. I'll work on the file formatting and figure out a good way to host/provide the files for DV2015.
 
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Britsimon said:
OK, As we head into the final stretch I think some people will want to watch the CEAC data. The extractions are generally most complete when run around the 2nd or 3rd of the month to see the prevuious months updates, however, people may want to see an interim file. So I ran an extract last night. Rafikbo76 provided his script and all I have done is run it - so the credit is due to him.

"https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8FBEmYkzURaRm5VckM1ai1IdFk/edit?usp=sharing"

I haven't added the summary page - but did add the totals on each column. I'll work on the file formatting and figure out a good way to host/provide the files for DV2015.
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Thanks Britsimon, I think both AS,EU and AF are not complete.
 
SKYSTAR said:
Thanks Britsimon, I think both AS and AF are not complete.
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Yeah I know. AF ran up to 81100 - but of course the interviews being scheduled now are not in there yet. For AS - I just realized I limited it to 12700 BUT for the same reason as AF we won't see many new cases. As I explained earlier this is an interim file which just allows people to compare progression over the last couple of weeks - but there is LOTS of data not updated.
 
Britsimon said:
Yeah I know. AF ran up to 81100 - but of course the interviews being scheduled now are not in there yet. For AS - I just realized I limited it to 12700 BUT for the same reason as AF we won't see many new cases. As I explained earlier this is an interim file which just allows people to compare progression over the last couple of weeks - but there is LOTS of data not updated.
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I know your point,however,that data for EU is till CN2925,AS1621,AF2222.
 
Britsimon said:
OK, As we head into the final stretch I think some people will want to watch the CEAC data. The extractions are generally most complete when run around the 2nd or 3rd of the month to see the prevuious months updates, however, people may want to see an interim file. So I ran an extract last night. Rafikbo76 provided his script and all I have done is run it - so the credit is due to him.

"https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8FBEmYkzURaRm5VckM1ai1IdFk/edit?usp=sharing"

I haven't added the summary page - but did add the totals on each column. I'll work on the file formatting and figure out a good way to host/provide the files for DV2015.
Click to expand...

Thanks Simon.
This is how the density of CN for EU looks like right now from CEAC data (see atachment)
After EU18000 (huge drop) density seems to be constant. Previously somebody wrote that the further we go the lesser CN we have, but it seems this is a myth.

Succes rate around 73%.
Familly rate around 2,2 per CN
Average real CN per 1000CN range (after Eu18000) is around 190 (real CN in every 1000CN range).

That all gives an estimate of around 17.000 visas for EU. Not much. I expected more (around 40% of all visas for EU).

My thoughts:
1. Maybe this year NACARA will not be added to the global quota of 50.000 visas?
2. I do not know how much AP will be cleared in last month. Maybe this will boost the numbers of visas issued.
 

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szym said:
Thanks Simon.
This is how the density of CN for EU looks like right now from CEAC data (see atachment)
After EU18000 (huge drop) density seems to be constant. Previously somebody wrote that the further we go the lesser CN we have, but it seems this is a myth.

Succes rate around 73%.
Familly rate around 2,2 per CN
Average real CN per 1000CN range (after Eu18000) is around 190 (real CN in every 1000CN range).

That all gives an estimate of around 17.000 visas for EU. Not much. I expected more (around 40% of all visas for EU).

My thoughts:
1. Maybe this year NACARA will not be added to the global quota of 50.000 visas?
2. I do not know how much AP will be cleared in last month. Maybe this will boost the numbers of visas issued.
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I've challenged people before on the reason why they think density descreases with higher numbers. It will (in my opinion) only drop when countries are limited.

About your estimate. I think it will go a little higher than you are thinking. Don't forget there is no aos in these numbers and as you mention, AP cases will add back in (probably 1000 or so). AOS could account for around 1000 cases - so there is a big increase over DV2013 for EU (probably from AF mainly). However, I doubt the total will be much more than 19/19.5.

About Nacara. I think they are shooting for 50k currently. It seems like they are going to be cautious on going over 50 - so we may see a total of 51k/52k but probably not 54k.
 
SKYSTAR said:
I see.I will try again. I have a question for you, is NACRA visas can be used in DV?any proof from data?
Because I was browsing the 2012 year book for immigration(http://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/ois_yb_2012.pdf) and I find that since 2008 to 2012 Nacra received less 1000 visa.
2011:158.
2010:248
2009:296
2008:296.
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Well about Nacara. In DV2013 they issued 51k visas - so we know they are using some Nacara, and we also know that Nacara is not using its 5000 or anything close. However they seem to be using the Nacara visas as a "buffer" rather than a real pool.
 
Britsimon said:
Well about Nacara. In DV2013 they issued 51k visas - so we know they are using some Nacara, and we also know that Nacara is not using its 5000 or anything close. However they seem to be using the Nacara visas as a "buffer" rather than a real pool.
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This is my conclusion too. It is also why I think they are using best estimates for take-up but possibly being a bit lenient on numbers as they can use the buffer. If this is indeed the thinking and it's been carried through into the VB already, it doesn't bode well for any increases in the stated numbers.
 
Britsimon said:
About your estimate. I think it will go a little higher than you are thinking. Don't forget there is no aos in these numbers and as you mention, AP cases will add back in (probably 1000 or so). AOS could account for around 1000 cases - so there is a big increase over DV2013 for EU (probably from AF mainly). However, I doubt the total will be much more than 19/19.5.
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Looks like they are pretty much on track. By the end of the month they will hit just under 16k visas and at the end of August probably around 17,5k. Then I guess they will deal with APs in September???

Do you think that CEAC on their side has more info in it? I emailed the embassy on the 16th to send me an updated invitation letter as they used my wife's maiden name and now in the latest data provided by our Indian Student Seal Team Six (Simon) the update status is 17th July. Rafik'a data
from few weeks ago had my status updated in first few days of July.
 
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