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October 2020 Visa Bulletin

Sm1smom

Sm1smom

Super Moderator
NOVEMBER CUT-OFF NUMBERS
AFRICA - 5,100
Except:
Egypt - 3,300

ASIA - 2,800
Except:
Iran 1,300
Nepal 2,700

EUROPE - 4,800

NORTH AMERICA (BAHAMAS) - 3

OCEANIA - 350

SOUTH AMERICA and the CARIBBEAN - 475


OCTOBER CUT-OFFS
AFRICA - 2,900
Except: Egypt 2,700

ASIA - 1,600
Except: Iran - 1,000
Nepal - 1,050

EUROPE - 2,500

NORTH AMERICA (BAHAMAS) - 2

OCEANIA - 250

SOUTH AMERICA, CARIBBEAN - 350
 
Is there any logic behind these numbers?!

I see countries like Egypt (with 6000 selectees) have numbers of 3300 for November.
At the same time, other country like Iran (with same 6000 selectees) is stuck around 1300.
 
Milz said:
Is there any logic behind these numbers?!

I see countries like Egypt (with 6000 selectees) have numbers of 3300 for November.
At the same time, other country like Iran (with same 6000 selectees) is stuck around 1300.
Click to expand...

Yes, there is. For one, embassy capacity is a key one, including that Iran has no embassy of its own and uses neighboring countries’ ones.
You can do a search on britsimon website for more details about the visa bulletin and cutoffs. Actually please do that, because on re-reading your post I can see that you do not understand how the cutoff numbers are calculated. The 3300 and 1300 are, respectively, case numbers for region, cumulatively to that month. They are not the amount of total cases per country for that month only. All well explained on britsimon so not totally reinventing the wheel here.
 
It looks like USCIS's main effort at the moment is to process all the Employment based green card for India and China or at least to file RFE for it and mark it as current.

Previous year DV for EU region, they planned to "process" 3900 numbers in November (from 2100 - 6000), this year only 2300 (from 2500-4800).
(while we don't know, how many applicants in this 3900 numbers this year).

While in EB categories like EB-3 for India, last year they planned to process 1 year of applicants (01JAN09-01FEB10), this year 5 years of applicants (15JAN10-01JAN15)
 
HappyDV2021 said:
It looks like USCIS's main effort at the moment is to process all the Employment based green card for India and China or at least to file RFE for it and mark it as current.

Previous year DV for EU region, they planned to "process" 3900 numbers in November (from 2100 - 6000), this year only 2300 (from 2500-4800).
(while we don't know, how many applicants in this 3900 numbers this year).

While in EB categories like EB-3 for India, last year they planned to process 1 year of applicants (01JAN09-01FEB10), this year 5 years of applicants (15JAN10-01JAN15)
Click to expand...
Keep in mind "Majority" of DV winners are outside USA! So they have nothing to do with USCIS.
 
HappyDV2021 said:
It looks like USCIS's main effort at the moment is to process all the Employment based green card for India and China or at least to file RFE for it and mark it as current.

Previous year DV for EU region, they planned to "process" 3900 numbers in November (from 2100 - 6000), this year only 2300 (from 2500-4800).
(while we don't know, how many applicants in this 3900 numbers this year).

While in EB categories like EB-3 for India, last year they planned to process 1 year of applicants (01JAN09-01FEB10), this year 5 years of applicants (15JAN10-01JAN15)
Click to expand...

EB/Employment based process are irrelevant to the DV process. Please keep those off the DV forum as they will create unnecessary confusion for most readers/members of this forum.
 
Sm1smom said:
EB/Employment based process are irrelevant to the DV process. Please keep those off the DV forum as they will create unnecessary confusion for most readers/members of this forum.
Click to expand...
It’s not only off topic but those visas are also currently banned till year end under the same proclamation that bans DV, so not sure what the point was.
 
SusieQQQ said:
It’s not only off topic but those visas are also currently banned till year end under the same proclamation that bans DV, so not sure what the point was.
Click to expand...
That what I was wondering, how they are processing those visas, when they are banned and don't process more DV AOS cases.

My company is going to start EB2 case for me in december and I have relatively low DV CN (EU68**). So I am tracking both categories to see, what happens to both DV and EB visas. I didn't find any EB2 related branches on forum and that was the only topic discussing visa billetin.
So I am sorry for mixing things up.
 
HappyDV2021 said:
That what I was wondering, how they are processing those visas, when they are banned and don't process more DV AOS cases.

My company is going to start EB2 case for me in december and I have relatively low DV CN (EU68**). So I am tracking both categories to see, what happens to both DV and EB visas. I didn't find any EB2 related branches on forum and that was the only topic discussing visa billetin.
So I am sorry for mixing things up.
Click to expand...

Everything is being processed as usual up to the point of KCC/NVC. You are aware that there are plenty other visas apart from DV and EB currently banned for issuance too right? Why would they just stop processing totally and create an even bigger backlog for when they restart?

We’ve had the discussion about case numbers and AOS a number of times before. It makes no sense for DV to have really high cutoffs for the small amount of AOS (probably averages less than 100 cases a month across the entire US) only to slam on brakes/retrogress the numbers dramatically when the consulates can open for interviews again for the vast, vast majority of DV cases. There is too little time in the fiscal year to mess around with DV like that. They can do it with other categories because there’s no sunset clause for the others.
 
I know this is off topic but - just looking at the VB and it occurs to me that the movement @HappyDV2021 notices in EB is related to the usual reset at the beginning of the fiscal year. So you can’t compare the “month to month“ moves because you are comparing last month of FY20 to first month FY21 for the EB categories, vs first vs second months of FY21 for DV. Furthermore, reading the visa bulletin notes, it says “Employment-based: All of the Final Action and Application Filing Dates have been advanced at a very rapid pace, in anticipation of the FY 2021 annual limit being approximately 261,500, an all-time high. The movement of these dates has been taken in consultation with USCIS Office of Policy and Strategy to accommodate processing plans for USCIS Offices during the coming fiscal year and to maximize number use within the FY 2021 annual limits. Pending demand, in the form of applications for adjustment of status, and documentarily qualified immigrant visa applicants, is well below the estimated annual limit of 261,500.” The last sentence is why they moved so fast, and they can always retrogress later if they need.

/off topic
 
Xarthisius
I saw that your charts were updates, thank you for that.

DV2020 Raw CEAC Data
A complete dump of the database made on a given date.
Those links do not work btw. I use the one which is linked on top of the page, so no problem, but I thought I would mention.

I was checking specifically my embassy, there a lot of Ready cases, but in our FB group almost everyone said they got their visas issued and noone is complaining that they have not got their passports yet, I will try to check this directly among applicants. If they are really Ready and not issued, it means their visas will be deducted from reserved 9095, which is not good at all.

I know total number of selectees in my country, so I am trying to figure out how many people have been already processed. There are still around 270 people left who are still at NVC :/
 
DV2020EU44 said:
Xarthisius
I saw that your charts were updates, thank you for that.

DV2020 Raw CEAC Data
A complete dump of the database made on a given date.
Those links do not work btw. I use the one which is linked on top of the page, so no problem, but I thought I would mention.
Click to expand...
They work for me both directly from your post on this forum and from my site. Can anyone else confirm the problem?
 
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