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sloner axiom :)

vladek15425 said:
You make a point with the cp because iran maybe escaped a special cut off since they process them in 3 different ambassies !
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Yes, provided Iran does not become a bottleneck for Asia. If it does then we might see a special cut off. Even without special cut off Asia needs to progress faster than last 6 months in order to meet the regional quota.
 
kayend said:
Yes, provided Iran does not become a bottleneck for Asia. If it does then we might see a special cut off. Even without special cut off Asia needs to progress faster than last 6 months in order to meet the regional quota.
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I think the TWO following cutoffs will bbe determinant for progress sake of this current dv !
I just can't wait to see what june july cutoff look like ....
 
vladek15425 said:
I think the TWO following cutoffs will bbe determinant for progress sake of this current dv !
I just can't wait to see what june july cutoff look like ....
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Well, the key to the progress should be number of visas issued. So far, visas issued count is low compare to the progress. In fact is very low for Asia and it is the same as other regions. So we can expect it to go faster in 2nd half of DV14. Whether there is special cut off is not important but the progress is. So I would say the next 6 months progress will be interesting.
 
kayend said:
Well, the key to the progress should be number of visas issued. So far, visas issued count is low compare to the progress. In fact is very low for Asia and it is the same as other regions. So we can expect it to go faster in 2nd half of DV14. Whether there is special cut off is not important but the progress is. So I would say the next 6 months progress will be interesting.
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You are right . The succes rate is very low that gives us a big hope for the futur :)
 
vladek15425 said:
For 2013 ghana wasn't maxed up. As it shows on the dv bulletin. So this year there won't be a special cut of for ghana as simon said above their cns went as high as the rest of AF.
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I disagree with that,

I believe that special cut-off for a given country, as simon said once, is about slowing down number of interviews per month. Limit on selection is another thing but they are related is some sort.
If a country is subject to limit in selection, it's because of the high number of entries. high number of entries lead to high selections in the first thousands witch impose special cut-off to slow down interviews per mounth.

on another hand, if a country is subject to selection limit, it will create more holes after the last CN hitting it's limit. and this theory enforce the one about all entrants get a number.
 
rafikbo76 said:
I disagree with that,

I believe that special cut-off for a given country, as simon said once, is about slowing down number of interviews per month. Limit on selection is another thing but they are related is some sort.
If a country is subject to limit in selection, it's because of the high number of entries. high number of entries lead to high selections in the first thousands witch impose special cut-off to slow down interviews per mounth.

on another hand, if a country is subject to selection limit, it will create more holes after the last CN hitting it's limit. and this theory enforce the one about all entrants get a number.
Click to expand...


The special cutoff and selection limit are two things that get confused. They are coincidentally related - in that countries with high numbers of selectees might need special cutoffs for the sake of processing speed BUT those countries may also have been subject to a limit (around 6k) during the selection process. However, one does not always go with the other - for instance Iran can move fast enough since the interviews are spread amongst 3 embassies.
 
rafikbo76 said:
I disagree with that,

I believe that special cut-off for a given country, as simon said once, is about slowing down number of interviews per month. Limit on selection is another thing but they are related is some sort.
If a country is subject to limit in selection, it's because of the high number of entries. high number of entries lead to high selections in the first thousands witch impose special cut-off to slow down interviews per mounth.

on another hand, if a country is subject to selection limit, it will create more holes after the last CN hitting it's limit. and this theory enforce the one about all entrants get a number.
Click to expand...

I actualy wrote a bigger answer but simon resumed it better than me...
It is related the high entries are finaly submited to a break selection, and the coutries that falls
Un this senario USUALY get a special cutoff!
 
Regional maximums in rank numbers and per country maximums (breaks in CDF functions) for special countries for DV-2013 [20] [21] [22]

RegionRegional Max Rank NumberCountryRank Number of the Break in CDF for the Country
Africa97005Egypt22899
Africa97005Ethiopia32913
Africa97005Ghana30538
Africa97005Nigeria19977
Africa97005All Countries other than Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria97005
Asia10682All Countries10682
Europe30532Ukraine14682
Europe30532Uzbekistan19864
Europe30532All Countries other than Ukraine and Uzbekistan30532
North America8Bahamas8
Oceania1638All Countries1638
South and Central America and the Caribbean1252All Countries1252

Check this rafiko it illustrates it perfectly.
 
DOS still published thorough statistics [17] for the number of entries submitted (DOS did it only for years 2007-2013; it is not available for DV-2014 and possibly future lotteries)
Simon didn't they annouce about 16000000 entrie for dv 14 ?
I don't get this part dude?:(
 
As I said before they are related in some sort. to explain more what I am thinking about the selection process, let's take an example:

Nigeria had 1,356,396 entries in DV-2013, the probability that a nigerian got selected is very high. the total entries in the world 7,941,332 (I don't have Africa to prove more what I think). As I said the probability that a nigerian got selected is about 17%, and in Africa is more let's say 30%.

so when the numbering starts, lot of nigerian showed in the first thousands CN. The fact that there were no CN of nigerian beyond 20000 is because of the limitation 6000 selected was at about 20000 CN.
17% nigerian on the real selectees witch was 109000 had no purpose, so limit on selection is a must as we all know.

and if nigeria is very present in the first thosands, it will be subject to special cut-off just to slow down interviews.

Now, after 20000 CN, each nigerian CN will be disqualified creating a hole in the numbering and that's explain the holes number evolution in the chart. because when a country reach it's limitation the graph of number of Cases Drope suddanly and in the opposite the holes graph incrrement suddanly, we can see that with nigeria, egypt, ghana and Ethiopia.

When i saw the EU chart, i saw Uze and Ukraine limit and another country witch i didn't identify yet.

iran case is special as interviews are spreaded among 3 consulate so slowing down interviews will be according to 3 consulates capability.
 
britsimon said:
The special cutoff and selection limit are two things that get confused. They are coincidentally related - in that countries with high numbers of selectees might need special cutoffs for the sake of processing speed BUT those countries may also have been subject to a limit (around 6k) during the selection process. However, one does not always go with the other - for instance Iran can move fast enough since the interviews are spread amongst 3 embassies.
Click to expand...

For Iran we cannot really count as 3 embassies because each embassy has their own local chargeabilities as well. So it would go for 1.5 or to the max 2.
 
rafikbo76 said:
As I said before they are related in some sort. to explain more what I am thinking about the selection process, let's take an example:

Nigeria had 1,356,396 entries in DV-2013, the probability that a nigerian got selected is very high. the total entries in the world 7,941,332 (I don't have Africa to prove more what I think). As I said the probability that a nigerian got selected is about 17%, and in Africa is more let's say 30%.

so when the numbering starts, lot of nigerian showed in the first thousands CN. The fact that there were no CN of nigerian beyond 20000 is because of the limitation 6000 selected was at about 20000 CN.
17% nigerian on the real selectees witch was 109000 had no purpose, so limit on selection is a must as we all know.

and if nigeria is very present in the first thosands, it will be subject to special cut-off just to slow down interviews.

Now, after 20000 CN, each nigerian CN will be disqualified creating a hole in the numbering and that's explain the holes number evolution in the chart. because when a country reach it's limitation the graph of number of Cases Drope suddanly and in the opposite the holes graph incrrement suddanly, we can see that with nigeria, egypt, ghana and Ethiopia.

When i saw the EU chart, i saw Uze and Ukraine limit and another country witch i didn't identify yet.

iran case is special as interviews are spreaded among 3 consulate so slowing down interviews will be according to 3 consulates capability.
Click to expand...

Yes I agree with you (apart from the 17% and 30% numbers - I'm not sure what you mean). However, the Nepal case shows that the connection is coincidental in that it is capacity and volume that requires the special cutoffs. For instance if the embassy in Nigeria were able to process 1000 DV cases a week (just to illustrate the point) then there would be no need for a special cutoff for Nigeria. See what I mean? It isn't related by anything apart from the high number of selectees requires a high interview capacity.
 
britsimon said:
Yes I agree with you (apart from the 17% and 30% numbers - I'm not sure what you mean). However, the Nepal case shows that the connection is coincidental in that it is capacity and volume that requires the special cutoffs. For instance if the embassy in Nigeria were able to process 1000 DV cases a week (just to illustrate the point) then there would be no need for a special cutoff for Nigeria. See what I mean? It isn't related by anything apart from the high number of selectees requires a high interview capacity.
Click to expand...

just probability 1356396/7941332 number of nigerian entries to world entries
and just an estimation of african entries (just to illustrate)
 
britsimon said:
Yes I agree with you (apart from the 17% and 30% numbers - I'm not sure what you mean). However, the Nepal case shows that the connection is coincidental in that it is capacity and volume that requires the special cutoffs. For instance if the embassy in Nigeria were able to process 1000 DV cases a week (just to illustrate the point) then there would be no need for a special cutoff for Nigeria. See what I mean? It isn't related by anything apart from the high number of selectees requires a high interview capacity.
Click to expand...

I see,

I just said high number of entries lead to high selection in the few first thousands witch require high interview capacity
 
vladek15425 said:
Regional maximums in rank numbers and per country maximums (breaks in CDF functions) for special countries for DV-2013 [20] [21] [22]

RegionRegional Max Rank NumberCountryRank Number of the Break in CDF for the Country
Africa97005Egypt22899
Africa97005Ethiopia32913
Africa97005Ghana30538
Africa97005Nigeria19977
Africa97005All Countries other than Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria97005
Asia10682All Countries10682
Europe30532Ukraine14682
Europe30532Uzbekistan19864
Europe30532All Countries other than Ukraine and Uzbekistan30532
North America8Bahamas8
Oceania1638All Countries1638
South and Central America and the Caribbean1252All Countries1252

Check this rafiko it illustrates it perfectly.
Click to expand...

Yes it is,

I just want to share an idea about seletion process
 
rafikbo76 said:
As I said before they are related in some sort. to explain more what I am thinking about the selection process, let's take an example:

Nigeria had 1,356,396 entries in DV-2013, the probability that a nigerian got selected is very high. the total entries in the world 7,941,332 (I don't have Africa to prove more what I think). As I said the probability that a nigerian got selected is about 17%, and in Africa is more let's say 30%.

so when the numbering starts, lot of nigerian showed in the first thousands CN. The fact that there were no CN of nigerian beyond 20000 is because of the limitation 6000 selected was at about 20000 CN.
17% nigerian on the real selectees witch was 109000 had no purpose, so limit on selection is a must as we all know.

and if nigeria is very present in the first thosands, it will be subject to special cut-off just to slow down interviews.

Now, after 20000 CN, each nigerian CN will be disqualified creating a hole in the numbering and that's explain the holes number evolution in the chart. because when a country reach it's limitation the graph of number of Cases Drope suddanly and in the opposite the holes graph incrrement suddanly, we can see that with nigeria, egypt, ghana and Ethiopia.

When i saw the EU chart, i saw Uze and Ukraine limit and another country witch i didn't identify yet.

iran case is special as interviews are spreaded among 3 consulate so slowing down interviews will be according to 3 consulates capability.
Click to expand...


Also agreed, 100% any country with heavy entries gets the cdf to cut up to 6000 selectees.
Now talking about nigeria you said they have better chances to get get selected ! I doubt it because as you say
They submit them to the cdf break so makes it +- fair. Now I always thought because they get a limit around 2000cn
They have a better chance than the rest of af exept special countries of course, but end the day the special cut makes it
Fair for every selectees !
 
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