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sloner axiom :)

Sloner said:
Warsaw - 87 interview http://photos.state.gov/libraries/poland/275705/cons_iv/DV Appt Feb 2014 ENG.pdf
DV13 October-January 250 interview (СN10950)
DV14 October-February 257 interview (СN16700)
16700/10950=1,52
13400 (DV13)*1,52=20368 (DV14)
33000 (DV13)*1,52=50160 (DV14)
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Again, I have no idea what that jumble of numbers is trying to show - but what is interesting from your link is that 28 of the 87 interviews scheduled for February are EU numbers under 10,000. Those numbers were almost all current in November but are only just being interviewed now. That is a heck of a lot of people who were late in sending their forms in so if that trend is continued all over Europe, then it could limit the progress of the EU number on the VB. Yuk.
 
Again, I have no idea what that jumble of numbers is trying to show - but what is interesting from your link is that 28 of the 87 interviews scheduled for February are EU numbers under 10,000. Those numbers were almost all current in November but are only just being interviewed now. That is a heck of a lot of people who were late in sending their forms in so if that trend is continued all over Europe, then it could limit the progress of the EU number on the VB. Yuk.
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What is 13400 and what is 33000 ? And why do you calculate dv 13 from october to january and dv14 from october to february?
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cut-off 50160 is summer. In what month is difficult to predict.
In February 2013 these numbers 49 of 117. Such has always been. Number of interviews less. Number of winners in Warsaw is the same. The remainder will be filled in the missing high case number.
 
Sloner said:
cut-off 50160 is summer. In what month is difficult to predict.
In February 2013 these numbers 49 of 117. Such has always been. Number of interviews less. Number of winners in Warsaw is the same. The remainder will be filled in the missing high case number.
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I real don't get it my friend :( what is 50160 !? Maybe skywalker will uncrypt it!
 
vladek15425 said:
I real don't get it my friend :( what is 50160 !? Maybe skywalker will uncrypt it!
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I think he is trying to show that the 50160 number is equivilent to the EU33XXX case number that EU reached in the VB in 2013 before it went current. I might have that wrong though because as usual it makes no sense since the actual published winners has increased by 40% for EU.
 
britsimon said:
I think he is trying to show that the 50160 number is equivilent to the EU33XXX case number that EU reached in the VB in 2013 before it went current. I might have that wrong though because as usual it makes no sense since the actual published winners has increased by 40% for EU.
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I recorded all our predictions his one was 50000+ for eu so I'm sure it is...
 
I have heard that the worldwide visa issuances must be 50000, but the visa varied from 34.4k to 51.3, actually why was that variation in previous 5 yrs??? If it is not fixed then what will be the probability of 65k or 70k issuances from 140k selectee???
I might be wrong * 100
 
supreme dhakal said:
I have heard that the worldwide visa issuances must be 50000, but the visa varied from 34.4k to 51.3, actually why was that variation in previous 5 yrs??? If it is not fixed then what will be the probability of 65k or 70k issuances from 140k selectee???
I might be wrong * 100
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This has been discussed many times and if you look at britsimon's sig you will see the 34k in 2012 was a huge outlier, due to the problems with the initial draw being cancelled. Many people only looked at the first results, notified they were not selected, and were unaware that these results were cancelled and that there was a redraw.

And maximum DV issuance in any FY is 55k, so no it will not go to 65 or 70k.
 
supreme dhakal said:
I have heard that the worldwide visa issuances must be 50000, but the visa varied from 34.4k to 51.3, actually why was that variation in previous 5 yrs??? If it is not fixed then what will be the probability of 65k or 70k issuances from 140k selectee???
I might be wrong * 100
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That's why we call 2012 sloner axiom :)
 
bonio said:
I think Mr. S sets the # of interviews as a start point of his analysis, and the information coming from
this is quite interesting, although, its just one embassy so how reliable is the final conclusion its hard too say.
We would probably need similar summaries from few other embassies to confirm his assumption.

So let's say embassy staff can progress with similar number of cases per month and late responses
in 2014 are roughly at the same level as in 2013, decipher logic would be as follow:

US folks in Warsaw needed one month more to process about same # of cases in 2014 comparing to 2013.
Yet at the same time they reach 6 thousand cases more this year, with ratio of 1.52 for 2014.
As such he is expecting 50K case numbers processed this year since we have 30K last year.
13K is number of processed cases by FEB last year which would give agin cut of 20K (13K x 1.52) for roughly same month this year.

Anyone care to get similar compilation for any other EU embassy ....

Now I need to print this out and I shall apply for PHD in cryptology :D.

Cheers.
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You are the new Acme-Sloner-translator device. Well done.

As you say, trying to extrapolate this out from a small population and one embassy is not really very reliable - but hey - it's only a bit of fun while we wait for our next VB to digest.
 
binio:
like you said its not easy to rely on one embassy to predict the sake of this current dv14 but just wanna point out that warsaw embassy is scheduling both belarus and poland ! which according to sloner things are going all right ! i find the interview processing verry slow my self and lot of turn ups as we noticed on the doc, so basicaly there wont be hope hope for the high cns ...
and that will klash with sloner theory of evryone will get an interview at the end .
thanks for you input BTW
 
simon;
i posted and i even quoted bonio , way before you did but i after i rechecked it said waiting for moderator authorisation !!!!:confused:
 
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