2014 DV Australian winners

[Britsimon]

Congrats britsimon to you & your wife!

Funny that you mention the name thing – I sometimes use a pseudonym for writing (I work in publishing) and earlier this year (but AFTER I sent my forms in May) I started using this pen name (it's a different surname) much more frequently in my work. The simple reason is that there's already somebody else in my industry with the same name as me. I didn't declare the pseudonym on the initial form because I haven't legally changed my name or anything, and because I was using it less frequently back then. Does anyone know if this will create a problem for me at the interview? I'd be devastated if this was a reason for me to be denied! I'm getting my police checks done soon and am planning to declare the name on that form. Any thoughts on this?

No that is not the sort of thing that causes an issue. My wifes scenario was that a different name was typed in (a typo really) against her name so they wondered if she was using that name somehow. A pen name is much like our forum names - you wouldn't travel on that name unless you became very famous or adopted the name similar to how an actor might adopt a screenname. So, don't worry - that will not cause you issues....

You should be current in March - so you don't have long to wait. Lucky you!

 

[Mijoro]

Just called the Kcc Oceania is at 800 for March

 

[IheartNY]

Not a happy camper.

Just called the Kcc Oceania is at 800 for March

 

[Mijoro]

You and me both.

Congratulations to those that have turned current though, make sure you keep us updated.

 

[Mijoro]

At this rate we are looking at hitting CN 1700 max.... depressing.

 

[emma_]

Not a happy camper.

You and me both.

Word! Can't believe it- 800??? With 4000+ selectees?? Gah. This is quite stressful


As mijoro said however, congrats to everyone that has just turned current! We need some more positive experiences/interview stories!

 

[TonyJP]

Just called the Kcc Oceania is at 800 for March

Thanks for making the call, Mijoro, though as someone with a similar number to yours, I'm starting to get seriously concerned by the slow progress, even slower than in previous years when there were half as many selectees. I know they usually don't tell you much, but were you able to pry any extra info out of the KCC person you spoke to, as to why Oceania is progressing so slowly?

Also, Britsimon, now that Oceania's March cut-off has been established as only 800, I'd appreciate your updated analysis as to where we're likely to go from here.

 

[rolytee]

Disappointing… with a CN in the mid 900's I was hoping to get March because that would be far more convenient than April!

So... in the absence of a updated prediction from Sloner, Britsimon, etc... reviewing the historical data leads me to surmise that we'll hit a 1,000 cutoff in April, just as we did in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013… seems probable and has a certain symmetry to it?

Now that April/May looks like a possibility, I'll need to move my interview from Hong Kong to Sydney which I hope doesn't screw anything up. I'll call KCC next week to test the water on that and to discover the process. At the slightest hint that a change will create a wrinkle, I'll suck up a flight to HK to be sure I don't lose my spot in the queue!

 

[Britsimon]

Disappointing… with a CN in the mid 900's I was hoping to get March because that would be far more convenient than April!

So... in the absence of a updated prediction from Sloner, Britsimon, etc... reviewing the historical data leads me to surmise that we'll hit a 1,000 cutoff in April, just as we did in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013… seems probable and has a certain symmetry to it?

Now that April/May looks like a possibility, I'll need to move my interview from Hong Kong to Sydney which I hope doesn't screw anything up. I'll call KCC next week to test the water on that and to discover the process. At the slightest hint that a change will create a wrinkle, I'll suck up a flight to HK to be sure I don't lose my spot in the queue!

That April 1000 thing is indeed looking about right. What the heck does that mean - I have no idea....

 

[Britsimon]

Thanks for making the call, Mijoro, though as someone with a similar number to yours, I'm starting to get seriously concerned by the slow progress, even slower than in previous years when there were half as many selectees. I know they usually don't tell you much, but were you able to pry any extra info out of the KCC person you spoke to, as to why Oceania is progressing so slowly?

Also, Britsimon, now that Oceania's March cut-off has been established as only 800, I'd appreciate your updated analysis as to where we're likely to go from here.

Tony I think all we are proving is that we know diddly about what KCC will do month to month. It is very difficult to separate the various threads of analysis and not mix in some emotion and hope.

Here are the factors.

1. The global quota. Is it 50k or is it nearer 55k. The difference there is NACARA - and I raised the possibility a few weeks ago that NACARA demand should be tapering off and that would mean more visas for DV - as many as nearly 10% more. I believe we have today confirmed that suspicion. NACARA demand/impact has reduced to almost nothing. We also just got finalised 2013 data that shows over 51k visas were issued. It seems likely therefore that DV2014 could issue as many as 54/54.5k visas - and that would make a big difference at least globally although not massive for OC. My level of confidence for that is now high.

2. The regional quotas. We don't have a really good way to make a good estimate. There is a formula that would have been applied but we confuse historical results with theoretical limits. We have good reason to take the selectee split as a signal toward the regional quota, and the fact that OC got such a big increase is surely no coincidence. However, OC hasn't been close to the sort of quota we have predicted in years - if ever. Quota predictions range from 1000 to 1400. 2013 saw OC get 730 visas but the highest year since 2003 was 830. My level of confidence in our predictions is medium to low. I don't think we have a strong enough handle on that and it is enormously impactful. This in fact is basically what all the arguments are about - how the cake is supposed to get sliced up.

3. The success rates. I personally believe this is roughly similar year to year. I have done calculations with 2011 success rates and I will redo them with 2013 rates - however I think this is well understood/accepted by all apart fro Sloner who is using a different baseline. My level of confidence about this metric and ability to predict it is very high. I am certain Sloner is wrong - and no one else is disagreeing with the approach or findings (although they could be undermined by point 2).

4. Pace of progress. I thought we would see OC at 900 to 1000. That was partly based on 2013 progress with some emotion thrown in. I was wrong, Sloner had an 800 to 850 range - and it was the only region that Sloner could claim to have predicted this month (he got two out of 5 last month). Basically we are NOT good at this prediction. There are too many variables and we cannot seem to predict it well - plus it is too easy to mix in too much hope.


So - with all those factors how confident can we be for OC. Well point 2 is a major unknown that impacts OC more heavily than any other region. We know OC made at least CN 1638 in 2013 and we know OC got 731 visas without hitting its quota and without the global quota being hit. The extra NACARA visas and the previous underfilling should add at least 200 top that number so I believe 2000 and below is safe. I have a high level of confidence about that. However, for us to go much higher than 2000/2100 we need the big increase in regional quota up to 1100/1200. That would take us to 2400/2500 perhaps - but I am much less certain about that - still confident and hopeful, but not certain. However, we do need the pace to pick up. 150 per month is not going to do it - we need a couple of good months.

Fingers crossed for OC.

 

[Angouleme]

As ever, superb, articulate analysis, Britsimon – despite the inherent unknowability of the process, which remains baffling to all of us. I think everyone on this board appreciates the time and thought you put into this.

 

[scorpz]

Just called the Kcc Oceania is at 800 for March

drat, missed out by couple of measly digits!!! well at least i know i'll definitely be current in April now. will keep everyone updated when that time rolls around. and fingers crossed for those of you with slightly higher #s.

 

[AmyJ]

Hey AL

So I call the Brisbane doctor's office yesterday - they definately won't let me book until we have the "SYD" case number that appears on the 2NL, even though I explained we only missed the Feb cut off by 30 odd places, so pretty dang sure we'll be in March. I was advised that if you call on a Monday you can usually get in the same week, at worst it's a 10 day wait time.

As for the vaccinations, I explained my concerneds about the Hep A shot and was told they don't check for Hep A for Australians, it's really just the childhood one - Measles, Mumps, Rubella, Chickenpox (Varicella), etc. Booster for tenanus - which we had done last year before our first US trip so just get a letter from your GP to prove that. And if your exam is between April to September (the US flu season) you have to have a flu shot. Anything missing can be given to you on the day. So from the sounds of it, hubby and I are pretty right.
Oh - cost of the medical...... $475!!!! EACH!!! Ouch!! That's going to hurt more than the blood test!!

And with the March cut off being 800, I'm guessing our interview will be in the first week of the month!?!?!? It's exciting and terrifying all at the same time!!!

Stopped in at the local police station on the way home to pick up the name and fingerprint forms. Will drop them back tomorrow and have the prints taken. From what I've read on here it seems us Queenslanders can do either name only or name and fingerprint, but being paranoid I didn't want to risk not having the full one done.
I did have to convince the lady at the desk that it was a state check not and AFP check. She may have been new, it took her a while to find the right forms.

So, is anyone else like me - they have a book with all this information in it about what we need for the visa, what's left to wind up in AUstralia and what we have to research/organise before we leave for LA?

 

[AmyJ]

...

 

[AmyJ]

Oh - and with the police check, the form says it will be mailed straight to the embassy for visa.
I'm guessing with put the physical address - Martin Place? Is there a mailing address I should be using?

 

[CamelSlayer]

Hey guys,

I'm flying out to LA on the 25th with my green card, and I'm just looking for an opinion on something.

When I had my medical checkup, the Doctor in Sydney gave me a Measles Mumps & Rubella shot. He told me I needed to have a booster done later in the year, and that I had to fax him confirmation of the booster.

When I went to see my local GP a few months later, he checked through my paperwork and said that I didn't need to get the booster shot.

Any idea why there might be this discrepancy? I'm just getting a little worried that there will be an issue when I arrive at LAX.

Any help/opinions would be appreciated.

 

[Crawf33]

So I call the Brisbane doctor's office yesterday - they definately won't let me book until we have the "SYD" case number that appears on the 2NL, even though I explained we only missed the Feb cut off by 30 odd places, so pretty dang sure we'll be in March. I was advised that if you call on a Monday you can usually get in the same week, at worst it's a 10 day wait time.

That's a tough break, given that the clinic in Brisbane told me that they'd book me in as long as I was confident that I'd have my interview well before the medical results expired. I didn't have an interview date (November 12) when I had my medical exam in Brisbane (August 19 I believe).

And with the March cut off being 800, I'm guessing our interview will be in the first week of the month!?!?!? It's exciting and terrifying all at the same time!!!

It doesn't quite work like that. Certain weeks of the month are allocated for DV visas; the consulate does a lot more than just green cards. My case number was 304, and my interview was in the second week of November, not the first.

Oh - and with the police check, the form says it will be mailed straight to the embassy for visa.
I'm guessing with put the physical address - Martin Place? Is there a mailing address I should be using?

Again, this is different to my experience. My police check said nothing of the sort with regards to going straight to the embassy, and britsimon and others on this forum told me there was no reason that it had to. I had mine sent to my own mailing address and took the police check with me to my interview. They didn't bat an eyelid. You might as well have it sent to your own address; it shouldn't take two months to arrive, mine was with me in a couple of weeks.

Hey guys,

I'm flying out to LA on the 25th with my green card, and I'm just looking for an opinion on something.

When I had my medical checkup, the Doctor in Sydney gave me a Measles Mumps & Rubella shot. He told me I needed to have a booster done later in the year, and that I had to fax him confirmation of the booster.

When I went to see my local GP a few months later, he checked through my paperwork and said that I didn't need to get the booster shot.

Any idea why there might be this discrepancy? I'm just getting a little worried that there will be an issue when I arrive at LAX.

Any help/opinions would be appreciated.

Honestly mate I'd be erring on the side of caution there and just getting the booster. Listen to the doctor that does immigration cases every day. Not that your GP isn't qualified, but he isn't in the business of doing visa medicals. Take the hit, get the booster, spend the extra bucks for peace of mind.

 

[Britsimon]

Honestly mate I'd be erring on the side of caution there and just getting the booster. Listen to the doctor that does immigration cases every day. Not that your GP isn't qualified, but he isn't in the business of doing visa medicals. Take the hit, get the booster, spend the extra bucks for peace of mind.

Agreed 100%. Your GP cannot affect your entry to the States, the panel doctor can.

 

[TonyJP]

Thanks as always for the time, detail and effort in your analysis, Britsimon. I have two more questions for you ...

1. In a previous post you said that out of Oceania's 4215 selectees, there were about 2100 winners and the rest of the selectees were made up of the winners' derivatives. As a single person with no children, I'm curious: do they calculate the number of selectees based on how many derivatives a winner listed on their original online entry form? (Of course, though, I understand that there may be more or less derivatives between the time of entering the lottery and the interview.)

2. This is a personal question, but if you don't mind my asking, what line of work are you in and how do you have the time and interest to research and analyse the DV process so thoroughly, so that us lazier types can just have you answer our questions?

 

[Britsimon]

Thanks as always for the time, detail and effort in your analysis, Britsimon. I have two more questions for you ...

1. In a previous post you said that out of Oceania's 4215 selectees, there were about 2100 winners and the rest of the selectees were made up of the winners' derivatives. As a single person with no children, I'm curious: do they calculate the number of selectees based on how many derivatives a winner listed on their original online entry form? (Of course, though, I understand that there may be more or less derivatives between the time of entering the lottery and the interview.)

2. This is a personal question, but if you don't mind my asking, what line of work are you in and how do you have the time and interest to research and analyse the DV process so thoroughly, so that us lazier types can just have you answer our questions?

Hi Tony,

Two good questions.

1. I believe the targets for selectees are set prior to the draw starting, based on total selectees including derivatives. As evidence of that you can see the selectee counts in 2012 (infamous new software) were rounded numbers on the total selectees including derivatives. The numbers were like 50,000, 31,001, 2002. So, they are on 30999 and take one more entry, that entry happens to be a married man with no kids so that counts as two and we end up with a round number +1.

2. Great question! I'm an independent IT consultant working on a fairly niche piece of ERP software - PeopleSoft. I've been doing that nearly 20 years and generally have had less downtime (time between contracts) than I could have expected. So, back in September I was being offered an extension to my contract from October 1st and I was expecting to get the H1 approved shortly after that. So I decided I would not extend my contract so I could be free to jump to the US as soon as we got the approval. The H1 turned out to be more of a battle than I had thought, so actually I could have squeezed another 3 months of work in, but in the end I have enjoyed the downtime and have enough cash to support myself. So, that is how I could afford the time to spend in this forum. Apart from that my mother in law is staying with us at the moment, so I am happy spending time in my home office so I can keep out of the hair of the wonderful women in my life.... They are great, but a little space is a good thing...