2014 DV Australian winners

[TonyJP]

Thanks for satisfying my curiosity, Britsimon. My brother is an IT contractor too, so I know about the contract downtime. And I'm grateful that your mother-in-law house guest makes you want to spend more time in your home office, helping out people like me online. Congratulations on your own visa case moving forward, and I and others are grateful to have you here on the forum.

 

[Britsimon]

Thanks for satisfying my curiosity, Britsimon. My brother is an IT contractor too, so I know about the contract downtime. And I'm grateful that your mother-in-law house guest makes you want to spend more time in your home office, helping out people like me online. Congratulations on your own visa case moving forward, and I and others are grateful to have you here on the forum.

 

[AmyJ]

It doesn't quite work like that. Certain weeks of the month are allocated for DV visas; the consulate does a lot more than just green cards. My case number was 304, and my interview was in the second week of November, not the first.

The second week of March would actually suit me better, but we'll just have to see what date we get allocated
You must have struck it lucky with the medical.

Again, this is different to my experience. My police check said nothing of the sort with regards to going straight to the embassy, and britsimon and others on this forum told me there was no reason that it had to. I had mine sent to my own mailing address and took the police check with me to my interview. They didn't bat an eyelid. You might as well have it sent to your own address; it shouldn't take two months to arrive, mine was with me in a couple of weeks.

I was re-checking the forms tonight and you only have to provide the consulate address IF it is required to be sent directly to them. So will be doing my address for sure!!

 

[Qewty]

I was wondering what your speciality was Simon Hubby is an Oracle HR specialist, but has been working on datamasking of late. Unfortunately, Oracle has not gone down well with government here in Perth over the last year or so, making California so much more appealing!

Q

 

[Britsimon]

I was wondering what your speciality was Simon Hubby is an Oracle HR specialist, but has been working on datamasking of late. Unfortunately, Oracle has not gone down well with government here in Perth over the last year or so, making California so much more appealing!

Q

My brother does Oracle Apps (Oracle Financials mainly), whilst I do PS. Qewty why not go for an H1?

 

[Qewty]

I sent you a message Simon

Q

 

[hgavin]

I'm in New Zealand, does anyone know if you can book and do your medical before your numbers gone current?

I'm considering going overseas for a few months so If I'm not back until like August I figure I'd better get everything sorted first for there might not be time If I leave it till then. This is assuming my number goes current of course, and that I'm able to call the local US embassy and get my interview scheduled as late as possible aka September.

 

[Essey]

Hi Tony,

Two good questions.

1. I believe the targets for selectees are set prior to the draw starting, based on total selectees including derivatives. As evidence of that you can see the selectee counts in 2012 (infamous new software) were rounded numbers on the total selectees including derivatives. The numbers were like 50,000, 31,001, 2002. So, they are on 30999 and take one more entry, that entry happens to be a married man with no kids so that counts as two and we end up with a round number +1.

Do you believe this because the set number of selectees would always be rounded to the nearest 1000? (Sorry, I'm not really understanding this very well, probably more as a result of my lack of comprehension rather than your explanation).

Does this mean that derivatives also get a case number? I kind of assumed that the 4215 selectees were selectees in their own right and all derivatives were attached to them additionally. Once again, I'm new to this so sorry if that sounds really stupid!

 

[Britsimon]

Do you believe this because the set number of selectees would always be rounded to the nearest 1000? (Sorry, I'm not really understanding this very well, probably more as a result of my lack of comprehension rather than your explanation).

Does this mean that derivatives also get a case number? I kind of assumed that the 4215 selectees were selectees in their own right and all derivatives were attached to them additionally. Once again, I'm new to this so sorry if that sounds really stupid!

What I meant was that they performed the draw that year and got round numbers (within 1 or 2) on every region. That would only happen if you had planned to take round numbers from each region - and that tells me they planned the quota from that point forward - at least for selectees and just that year.

The 4215 includes derivatives. They don't get their own number, but they are included in the 140,660 winners.

 

[CamelSlayer]

Thanks for the feedback Crawff and Britsimon,

I went to my GP today and got a Tetanus booster and a Measles Mumps Rubella shot, despite his insistence otherwise.
It seems like the VISA doctor wasn't including my childhood immunisations, because I don't have any official records of them.

Better to be safe than sorry, so I'm all set to fly out on the 25th now.

 

[Britsimon]

Thanks for the feedback Crawff and Britsimon,

I went to my GP today and got a Tetanus booster and a Measles Mumps Rubella shot, despite his insistence otherwise.
It seems like the VISA doctor wasn't including my childhood immunisations, because I don't have any official records of them.

Better to be safe than sorry, so I'm all set to fly out on the 25th now.

Yeah that would be correct...

Glad you are all set - good luck!

 

[Mijoro]

I kind of assumed that the 4215 selectees were selectees in their own right and all derivatives were attached to them additionally.

You are not the only one who thought that Essey, it is all rather confusing isnt it.

The 4215 includes derivatives. They don't get their own number, but they are included in the 140,660 winners.

With currently a 13.8% success rate hopefully that will mean that there are plenty of visas left for everyone.

 

[Britsimon]

You are not the only one who thought that Essey, it is all rather confusing isnt it.



With currently a 13.8% success rate hopefully that will mean that there are plenty of visas left for everyone.

13.8%? Is that based on the CEAC data at the end of December?

 

[Mijoro]

Well its 88 by 650

 

[Mijoro]

Acutally looking at that the % should be more because not all 650 were interviewed.

 

[Britsimon]

Acutally looking at that the % should be more because not all 650 were interviewed.

Yes that makes sense - the December cutoff was 450, so at that point there were 88 visas issued from the first 450 case numbers. The 88 will increase but I can see what you are getting at....

 

[Mijoro]

Yes then in that case the success rate is 19.55%

 

[vladek15425]

Yes that makes sense - the December cutoff was 450, so at that point there were 88 visas issued from the first 450 case numbers. The 88 will increase but I can see what you are getting at....

450-88= 362 how many do you think will turn back from 362 and became issued?
i think about 60 !

 

[Britsimon]

450-88= 362 how many do you think will turn back from 362 and became issued?
i think about 60 !

Yeah maybe - it isn't a metric we have talked about much. The 450 is case numbers, so that includes holes (only 145 of the 450 were cases where forms were submitted as at the point of the data swipe), and it does not measure the actual selectee and derivatives number. The 88 is selectees and derivatives. So, 88/450 is kind of a raw metric. I don't know if we know what the max case number is for OC but I would guess 4500 or so, so in a sense Mijoro is showing that the 88 could turn out to be 880. But, as you are pointing out more of the 450 will turn into approved cases. Still, we are all trying to guess the outcome of something very complex, and in that sense Mijoros' method is no different to other methods.

 

[Mijoro]

Do you think it will be that small an amount Vladdy? I figured it maybe in the 100 - 120 range.