High Case Numer
- Thread starter Momo1980
- Start date
Rachel1812
Registered Users (C)
We are in same situation as you and decided just chill since there is nothing we can do but wait.
In the middle time we'll try to get all documents needed and save as much as we can.
Wish i could read future!
Regards.
In the middle time we'll try to get all documents needed and save as much as we can.
Wish i could read future!
Regards.
enchevetrement
Registered Users (C)
But you can read the past!
Read the past!
Couple of points to ponder
* Take for example dadadada72 who reports in the signature the case number 2011AF00088XXX and picking up the visa on Sept 8th 2011
* I did not investigate the AF case numbers but what I figured out from the AS numbers is that only about 35% of those selected were notified on May. I would expect this ratio to be true for the other regions as well. So it means that you are among the first 35-40% of those selected !
* The case numbers for Africa do not represent visa numbers because there are many 'holes' between valid case numbers. This is because of Ethiopia and Nigeria. The rule of thumb is this: if there are in the region countries with relatively high number of participants and relatively low number of winners then there would be wide 'holes' between valid case numbers. This same effect caused the huge case numbers for AS in DV12 in comparison with DV13 (a.k.a the Bangladesh effect)
* Last but not least: It cost money to handle your papers. If they thought that you do not have a chance to get an interview then they wouldn't have bothered to notify you in the first place. You got notified means that they believe that you have a good chance
best of luck!
Read the past!
Couple of points to ponder
* Take for example dadadada72 who reports in the signature the case number 2011AF00088XXX and picking up the visa on Sept 8th 2011
* I did not investigate the AF case numbers but what I figured out from the AS numbers is that only about 35% of those selected were notified on May. I would expect this ratio to be true for the other regions as well. So it means that you are among the first 35-40% of those selected !
* The case numbers for Africa do not represent visa numbers because there are many 'holes' between valid case numbers. This is because of Ethiopia and Nigeria. The rule of thumb is this: if there are in the region countries with relatively high number of participants and relatively low number of winners then there would be wide 'holes' between valid case numbers. This same effect caused the huge case numbers for AS in DV12 in comparison with DV13 (a.k.a the Bangladesh effect)
* Last but not least: It cost money to handle your papers. If they thought that you do not have a chance to get an interview then they wouldn't have bothered to notify you in the first place. You got notified means that they believe that you have a good chance
best of luck!
So if my understanding is correct my number (I'm from the Africa region) would most likely get called for an interview correct? I'm guessing I'd be current between June and September?
I'm not stressed about finances or sponsors but I've wanted to live in the US since I first visited 10 years ago so this is hopefully my best chance to achieve that dream.
I'm not stressed about finances or sponsors but I've wanted to live in the US since I first visited 10 years ago so this is hopefully my best chance to achieve that dream.
enchevetrement
Registered Users (C)
I believe that everyone with a case number has a good chance for an interview.
Because there are 105K selectees, people with high case numbers believe that they are at the bottom of that 105K list and their chances are very low.
From the information I have gathered so far, mostly for the Asia region, I came to the conclusion that this is not the case. My understanding is that only about ~35-40% of those 105K were informed. I'm quite sure of this for the Asia region and I have reason to believe that this is the case also for Africa and Europe.
And in numbers: for Asia, maximal case number would be ~28K yet on May the highest number out there was ~10K and on October around 10.5K which makes ~37%
So basically all those who have a case number have a realistic chance.
Of course, all this is just a theory but so far it seems to 'hold'
Hope you'll make your dream come true!
Because there are 105K selectees, people with high case numbers believe that they are at the bottom of that 105K list and their chances are very low.
From the information I have gathered so far, mostly for the Asia region, I came to the conclusion that this is not the case. My understanding is that only about ~35-40% of those 105K were informed. I'm quite sure of this for the Asia region and I have reason to believe that this is the case also for Africa and Europe.
And in numbers: for Asia, maximal case number would be ~28K yet on May the highest number out there was ~10K and on October around 10.5K which makes ~37%
So basically all those who have a case number have a realistic chance.
Of course, all this is just a theory but so far it seems to 'hold'
Hope you'll make your dream come true!
Read the past!
Couple of points to ponder
* Take for example dadadada72 who reports in the signature the case number 2011AF00088XXX and picking up the visa on Sept 8th 2011
* I did not investigate the AF case numbers but what I figured out from the AS numbers is that only about 35% of those selected were notified on May. I would expect this ratio to be true for the other regions as well. So it means that you are among the first 35-40% of those selected !
* The case numbers for Africa do not represent visa numbers because there are many 'holes' between valid case numbers. This is because of Ethiopia and Nigeria. The rule of thumb is this: if there are in the region countries with relatively high number of participants and relatively low number of winners then there would be wide 'holes' between valid case numbers. This same effect caused the huge case numbers for AS in DV12 in comparison with DV13 (a.k.a the Bangladesh effect)
* Last but not least: It cost money to handle your papers. If they thought that you do not have a chance to get an interview then they wouldn't have bothered to notify you in the first place. You got notified means that they believe that you have a good chance
best of luck!
hmmmm... if this were the case, wouldn't the numbers move faster?So far,the movement of out numbers is comparable to DV2k8-9.
[TABLE="class: grid, width: 1000, align: left"]
[TR]
[TH]Month[/TH]
[TH]DV 99-2k[/TH]
[TH]DV 2k0-1[/TH]
[TH]DV 2k1-2[/TH]
[TH]DV 2k2-3[/TH]
[TH]DV 2k3-4[/TH]
[TH]DV 2k4-5[/TH]
[TH]DV 2k5-6[/TH]
[TH]DV 2k6-7[/TH]
[TH]DV 2k7-8[/TH]
[TH]DV 2k8-9[/TH]
[TH]Dv 2k9-10[/TH]
[TH]Dv 2k10-11[/TH]
[TH]DV 2k11-12[/TH]
[TH]Dv 2k12-13[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]October[/TD]
[TD]12,001[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]12,500[/TD]
[TD]4,650[/TD]
[TD]9,300[/TD]
[TD]9,900[/TD]
[TD]6,000[/TD]
[TD]5,700 except Egypt 3,100 Ethiopia 3,500 Nigeria 2,700[/TD]
[TD]6,700 except Egypt 3,400 Ethiopia 2,900 Nigeria 4,700[/TD]
[TD]6,900 except Egypt 3,100 Ethiopia 3,600 Nigeria 3,350[/TD]
[TD]8,300 except Egypt 3,100 Ethiopia 3,900 Nigeria 5,500[/TD]
[TD]9,000 except Egypt 5,050 Ethiopia 7,450 Nigeria 7,450[/TD]
[TD]8,500 except Egypt 5,000 Ethiopia 7,000 Nigeria 7,000[/TD]
[TD]8,000 except Egypt 5,500 Ethiopia 5,500 Nigeria 5,500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]November[/TD]
[TD]12,704[/TD]
[TD]12,903[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]7,800[/TD]
[TD]11,700 except Egypt Ethiopia 9,000 Nigeria[/TD]
[TD]10,300 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 9,900[/TD]
[TD]6,000 except Egypt Ethiopia 4,600 Nigeria 3,700[/TD]
[TD]8,500 except Egypt 5,600 Ethiopia 5,600 Nigeria 4,300[/TD]
[TD]10,000 except Egypt 6,000 Ethiopia 5,000 Nigeria 6,300[/TD]
[TD]12,500 except Egypt 5,900 Ethiopia 6,300 Nigeria 6,000[/TD]
[TD]14,000 except Egypt 6,200 Ethiopia 6,700 Nigeria 8,700[/TD]
[TD]12,000 except Egypt 9,300 Ethiopia 11,000 Nigeria 10,000[/TD]
[TD]13,000 except Egypt 8,000 Ethiopia 10,000 Nigeria 10,000[/TD]
[TD]13,900 except Egypt 6,600 Ethiopia 9,100 Nigeria 8,500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]December[/TD]
[TD]12,800 except Ghana 6,040 Ethiopia Nigeria 5,801[/TD]
[TD]13,800[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]9,800[/TD]
[TD]14,450 except Ethiopia 12,400[/TD]
[TD]14,000 except Nigeria 11,300[/TD]
[TD]7,500 except Ethiopia 6,800 Nigeria 5,400[/TD]
[TD]10,300 except Egypt 7,700 Ethiopia 7,300 Nigeria 5,900[/TD]
[TD]11,000 except Egypt 8,400 Ethiopia 6,950 Nigeria 6,900[/TD]
[TD]15,100 except Egypt 8,700 Ethiopia 7,900 Nigeria 6,700[/TD]
[TD]17,800 except Egypt 9,100 Ethiopia 9,000 Nigeria 10,400[/TD]
[TD]15,650 except Egypt 12,600 Ethiopia 12,250 Nigeria 10,850[/TD]
[TD]18,500 except Egypt 12,700 Ethiopia 13,560 Nigeria 12,000[/TD]
[TD]15,500 except Egypt 8,300 Ethiopia 14,800 Nigeria 10,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]January[/TD]
[TD]12,800 except Ghana 6,040 Ethiopia Nigeria 5,801[/TD]
[TD]14,000[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]11,500[/TD]
[TD]17,700 except Egypt 11,000 Ethiopia 15,600 Nigeria 15,400[/TD]
[TD]17,400 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 14,600[/TD]
[TD]9,000 except Egypt Ethiopia 6,400 Nigeria 5,400[/TD]
[TD]11,000 except Egypt 10900 Ethiopia 9000 Nigeria 7000[/TD]
[TD]13,100 except Egypt 11,000 Ethiopia 8,600 Nigeria 7,200[/TD]
[TD]18,300 except Egypt 10,800 Ethiopia 10,000 Nigeria 8,400[/TD]
[TD]23,400 except Egypt 12,300 Ethiopia 12,475 Nigeria 12,900[/TD]
[TD]20,900 except Egypt 16,000 Ethiopia 13,200 Nigeria 12,100[/TD]
[TD]24,700 except Egypt 16,800 Ethiopia 16,800 Nigeria 14,500[/TD]
[TD]18,100 except Egypt 10,900 Ethiopia 16,700 Nigeria 10,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]February[/TD]
[TD]13,800 except Ghana 6,040 Ethiopia Nigeria 5,801[/TD]
[TD]14,100[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]12,250[/TD]
[TD]20,400 except Egypt Ethiopia 18,600 Nigeria 15,400[/TD]
[TD]20,225 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 17,600[/TD]
[TD]11,600 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 8150[/TD]
[TD]11,850 except Egypt 13,300 Ethiopia 10,800 Nigeria 7,600[/TD]
[TD]16,200 except Egypt 13,300 Ethiopia 10,200 Nigeria 7,700[/TD]
[TD]23,300 except Egypt 13,300 Ethiopia 11,650 Nigeria 9,500[/TD]
[TD]27,500 except Egypt 15,600 Ethiopia 14,700 Nigeria 14,000[/TD]
[TD]26,100 except Egypt 20,200 Ethiopia 15,000 Nigeria 12,100[/TD]
[TD]32,000 except Egypt 21,000 Ethiopia 21,500 Nigeria 16,000[/TD]
[TD]22,000 except Egypt 13,000 Ethiopia 20,400 Nigeria 11,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]March[/TD]
[TD]14,801 except Egypt Ghana 6,040 Nigeria 6,770[/TD]
[TD]14,100[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]14150[/TD]
[TD]23,200 except Egypt Ethiopia 21,900 Nigeria 16,475[/TD]
[TD]22,800 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 17,600[/TD]
[TD]14,200 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 9,550[/TD]
[TD]15,250 except Egypt Ethiopia 13,300 Nigeria 9,125[/TD]
[TD]18,500 except Egypt 15,700 Ethiopia 12,100 Nigeria 8,750[/TD]
[TD]26,800 except Egypt 16,000 Ethiopia 13,800 Nigeria 9,900[/TD]
[TD]29,600 except Egypt 18,000 Ethiopia 16,950 Nigeria 14,350[/TD]
[TD]31,950 except Egypt 24,275 Ethiopia 18,650 Nigeria 13,100[/TD]
[TD]35,800 except Egypt 26,000 Ethiopia 26,000 Nigeria 17,500[/TD]
[TD] except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]April[/TD]
[TD]16,780 except Ghana 6,620 Nigeria 8,060[/TD]
[TD]14,100 except Egypt Ethiopia 16,800 Nigeria[/TD]
[TD]12,800[/TD]
[TD]16,500[/TD]
[TD]24,800 except Egypt Ethiopia 24,100 Nigeria 16,475[/TD]
[TD]25,100 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 19,700[/TD]
[TD]16,950 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 10,900[/TD]
[TD]17,700 except Egypt Ethiopia 15,400 Nigeria 10,750[/TD]
[TD]21,500 except Egypt 17,900 Ethiopia 14,150 Nigeria 9,900[/TD]
[TD]26,900 except Egypt 17,400 Ethiopia 15,700 Nigeria 9,900[/TD]
[TD]31,700 except Egypt 20,800 Ethiopia 19,300 Nigeria 14,600[/TD]
[TD]35,450 except Egypt 27,000 Ethiopia 22,150 Nigeria 14,100[/TD]
[TD]39,000 except Egypt 29,500 Ethiopia 29,500 Nigeria 20,000[/TD]
[TD] except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]May[/TD]
[TD]19950 except Ghana 8,120 Nigeria 8,060[/TD]
[TD]14,750[/TD]
[TD]17,000[/TD]
[TD]19,880[/TD]
[TD]26,200 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 16,500[/TD]
[TD]27,700 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 21,300[/TD]
[TD]20,400 except Egypt Ethiopia 18950 Nigeria 12,350[/TD]
[TD]20,550 except Egypt 20,500 Ethiopia 17100 Nigeria 12,375[/TD]
[TD]26,700 except Egypt 20,500 Ethiopia 16,000 Nigeria 11,600[/TD]
[TD]32,400 except Egypt 19,150 Ethiopia 17,750 Nigeria 11,550[/TD]
[TD]39,200 except Egypt 23,600 Ethiopia 22,500 Nigeria 16,200[/TD]
[TD]42,000 except Egypt 31,200 Ethiopia 26,200 Nigeria 15,450[/TD]
[TD]50,000 except Egypt 33,000 Ethiopia 33,000 Nigeria 25,000[/TD]
[TD] except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]June[/TD]
[TD]23,450 except Ghana 9,030[/TD]
[TD]19,930[/TD]
[TD]21,400[/TD]
[TD]26,100[/TD]
[TD]28,300 except Ghana 11,500 Nigeria 16,500[/TD]
[TD]28,450 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 21,400[/TD]
[TD]23,500 except Egypt Ethiopia 20,400 Nigeria 13,400[/TD]
[TD]27,000 except Egypt 21,800 Ethiopia 18,900 Nigeria 14,600[/TD]
[TD]32,000 except Egypt 22,000 Ethiopia 17,750 Nigeria 13,000[/TD]
[TD]39,600 except Egypt 20,650 Ethiopia 19,500 Nigeria 12,750[/TD]
[TD]45,600 except Egypt 24,200 Ethiopia 25,100 Nigeria 17,500[/TD]
[TD]49,300 except Egypt 34,300 Ethiopia 28,525 Nigeria 17,150[/TD]
[TD]CURRENT except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria[/TD]
[TD] except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]July[/TD]
[TD]26,600 except Ghana 10,720[/TD]
[TD]24,700 except Ethiopia 19,700[/TD]
[TD]25,650[/TD]
[TD]31,650[/TD]
[TD]32,500 except Ghana 22,000 Nigeria 17100[/TD]
[TD]32,800 except Ethiopia 29,400 Nigeria 23300[/TD]
[TD]27,850 except Ethiopia 22,800 Nigeria 14,675[/TD]
[TD]35,500 except Egypt 22,600 Ethiopia 22,900 Nigeria 16,150[/TD]
[TD]38,050 except Egypt 25,000 Ethiopia 19,800 Nigeria 14,650[/TD]
[TD]48,700 except Egypt 21,600 Ethiopia 21,100 Nigeria 14,400[/TD]
[TD]54,100 except Egypt 24,500 Ethiopia 25,100 Nigeria 18,850[/TD]
[TD]57,600 except Egypt 35,000 Ethiopia 30,650 Nigeria 18500[/TD]
[TD]CURRENT except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria[/TD]
[TD] except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]August[/TD]
[TD]28,850 except Nigeria 13,675[/TD]
[TD]29,150 except Ethiopia 24,100[/TD]
[TD]33,250[/TD]
[TD]37,200[/TD]
[TD]34,300 except Ghana 22,000 Nigeria 17,100[/TD]
[TD]39,500 except Ethiopia 30,100[/TD]
[TD]33,900 except Ethiopia 24,100 Nigeria 16,000[/TD]
[TD]47,000 except Egypt 31,000 Ethiopia 22,800 Nigeria 16,600[/TD]
[TD]64,300 except Egypt 22,750 Ethiopia 22,800 Nigeria 15,650[/TD]
[TD]64,300 except Egypt 22,750 Ethiopia 25,625 Nigeria 22,000[/TD]
[TD]71,800 except Egypt 32,400 Ethiopia Nigeria[/TD]
[TD]CURRENT except Egypt Etiopia Nigeria[/TD]
[TD]CURRENT except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria[/TD]
[TD] except Egypt 32,400 Ethiopia Nigeria[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sept[/TD]
[TD]CURRENT except Nigeria 13,676[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]CURRENT[/TD]
[TD]49,350 except Ethiopia 43,500[/TD]
[TD]35,450 except Ghana 27,600 Nigeria 18,600[/TD]
[TD]46,700 except Ethiopia 32,500[/TD]
[TD]CURRENT except Egypt 24,300 Ethiopia 25,300[/TD]
[TD]CURRENT except Egypt 22,600 Ethiopia 16,000 Nigeria 20,700[/TD]
[TD]62,300 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 18,450[/TD]
[TD]CURRENT except Egypt Ethiopia 26,350 Nigeria[/TD]
[TD]CURRENT except Egypt Ethiopia 32,700 Nigeria[/TD]
[TD]CURRENT except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria[/TD]
[TD]CURRENT except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria[/TD]
[TD] except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
How does this explain how many Kenyans' CNs fall between 40 - 70k?
Take Nigeria's case:does the high participation rate contribute to their seemingly "low" CNs?
Rachel1812
Registered Users (C)
Dear Obeezyb,i had to google for M.I.A. meaning .I'm loss in abbreviations.
You are right,i guess this M.I.A thing is part of the pretended chilling process.
.I'm loss in abbreviations.You are right,i guess this M.I.A thing is part of the pretended chilling process.
enchevetrement
Registered Users (C)
The Nigerian Connection
Hmm... does this mean that people from Nigeria have low case numbers? It actually would make sense if they all have relatively low CN. It would also mean that the gaps between the case numbers is wider between high numbers than between low numbers
The Africa results are a bit enigmatic to me. I have no idea why the advance rate is slower in comparison with DV12
Though, about the 'rule of thumb' - it seems to work perfectly for Asia. I applied it for for past DV and it 'normalized' the numbers (graph)
--------------------------------
WARNING: Log post. Lots of numbers. Headache hazard. Enter with caution!
--------------------------------
The idea is this:
According to the Foreign Affairs Manual Volume 9, note 6.4:
"
...At the end of the registration period, a computer will randomly select numbers. ... All entries successfully received during the registration period will have an equal chance of selection within the respective region.
"
Now, take Africa DV13 probabilities for Nigeria:
1,356,396 participants (30% of the total 4,657,512). In a random process with equal chances you would expect 15,167 winners. But there are only 6,218
So either
(1) the process is not "random with equal chances", or
(2) there is some 'post processing' on the results.
With option 1 I don't know how to cope... so I'll put it aside.
For option 2, the following process seems reasonable enough:
a. They select 64,706 entries from Africa, instead of only 52,080
b. The process is random with equal chances so they get 18,844 (~30%) from Nigeria and 45,862 (~70%) from the rest of Africa.
c. Now, they 'unselect' 12,626 entries from Nigeria. They are left with 6,218 from Nigeria and 45,862 from the rest of Africa - total of 52,080
Those 12k entries that they unselected causes the gaps between the case numbers...
Now, if they 'unselect' entries 6,218+1 through entry 18,844 then all the entries left from Nigeria will have relatively low case numbers and the gaps will be wider between high case numbers.
Instead they can randomly unselect every 3 out of all 10 winners from Nigeria and get the same results. In this case the gaps will spread evenly between all case numbers.
In any case, the important thing is that the case numbers of Africa are much higher than normally because they represent 64K winners, not 52K !!
For Asia DV12, Bangladesh plays the role of Nigeria and when applying the above process the results looks reasonable
For Africa the story is more complicated because the same idea applies to Egypt, Ethiopia and Ghana which have relatively high number of participants and low number of winners.
Each may cause more gaps between the case numbers....
Unfortunately this does not answer the most important question - why is the advance rate for Africa so slow
I have no idea... maybe the gaps are less wide in low numbers and the process will pick up speed next month
Hmm... does this mean that people from Nigeria have low case numbers? It actually would make sense if they all have relatively low CN. It would also mean that the gaps between the case numbers is wider between high numbers than between low numbers
The Africa results are a bit enigmatic to me. I have no idea why the advance rate is slower in comparison with DV12
Though, about the 'rule of thumb' - it seems to work perfectly for Asia. I applied it for for past DV and it 'normalized' the numbers (graph)
--------------------------------
WARNING: Log post. Lots of numbers. Headache hazard. Enter with caution!
--------------------------------
The idea is this:
According to the Foreign Affairs Manual Volume 9, note 6.4:
"
...At the end of the registration period, a computer will randomly select numbers. ... All entries successfully received during the registration period will have an equal chance of selection within the respective region.
"
Now, take Africa DV13 probabilities for Nigeria:
1,356,396 participants (30% of the total 4,657,512). In a random process with equal chances you would expect 15,167 winners. But there are only 6,218
So either
(1) the process is not "random with equal chances", or
(2) there is some 'post processing' on the results.
With option 1 I don't know how to cope... so I'll put it aside.
For option 2, the following process seems reasonable enough:
a. They select 64,706 entries from Africa, instead of only 52,080
b. The process is random with equal chances so they get 18,844 (~30%) from Nigeria and 45,862 (~70%) from the rest of Africa.
c. Now, they 'unselect' 12,626 entries from Nigeria. They are left with 6,218 from Nigeria and 45,862 from the rest of Africa - total of 52,080
Those 12k entries that they unselected causes the gaps between the case numbers...
Now, if they 'unselect' entries 6,218+1 through entry 18,844 then all the entries left from Nigeria will have relatively low case numbers and the gaps will be wider between high case numbers.
Instead they can randomly unselect every 3 out of all 10 winners from Nigeria and get the same results. In this case the gaps will spread evenly between all case numbers.
In any case, the important thing is that the case numbers of Africa are much higher than normally because they represent 64K winners, not 52K !!
For Asia DV12, Bangladesh plays the role of Nigeria and when applying the above process the results looks reasonable
For Africa the story is more complicated because the same idea applies to Egypt, Ethiopia and Ghana which have relatively high number of participants and low number of winners.
Each may cause more gaps between the case numbers....
Unfortunately this does not answer the most important question - why is the advance rate for Africa so slow
I have no idea... maybe the gaps are less wide in low numbers and the process will pick up speed next monthDear Obeezyb,i had to google for M.I.A. meaning
You are right,i guess this M.I.A thing is part of the pretended chilling process.
we live & we learnDear Obeezyb,i had to google for M.I.A. meaning
.that's where Google comes in.
well said.You are right,i guess this M.I.A thing is part of the pretended chilling process.
Cheers.
Hmm... does this mean that people from Nigeria have low case numbers? It actually would make sense if they all have relatively low CN. It would also mean that the gaps between the case numbers is wider between high numbers than between low numbers
The Africa results are a bit enigmatic to me. I have no idea why the advance rate is slower in comparison with DV12
Though, about the 'rule of thumb' - it seems to work perfectly for Asia. I applied it for for past DV and it 'normalized' the numbers (graph)
--------------------------------
WARNING: Log post. Lots of numbers. Headache hazard. Enter with caution!
--------------------------------
The idea is this:
According to the Foreign Affairs Manual Volume 9, note 6.4:
"
...At the end of the registration period, a computer will randomly select numbers. ... All entries successfully received during the registration period will have an equal chance of selection within the respective region.
"
Now, take Africa DV13 probabilities for Nigeria:
1,356,396 participants (30% of the total 4,657,512). In a random process with equal chances you would expect 15,167 winners. But there are only 6,218
So either
(1) the process is not "random with equal chances", or
(2) there is some 'post processing' on the results.
With option 1 I don't know how to cope... so I'll put it aside.
For option 2, the following process seems reasonable enough:
a. They select 64,706 entries from Africa, instead of only 52,080
b. The process is random with equal chances so they get 18,844 (~30%) from Nigeria and 45,862 (~70%) from the rest of Africa.
c. Now, they 'unselect' 12,626 entries from Nigeria. They are left with 6,218 from Nigeria and 45,862 from the rest of Africa - total of 52,080
Those 12k entries that they unselected causes the gaps between the case numbers...
Now, if they 'unselect' entries 6,218+1 through entry 18,844 then all the entries left from Nigeria will have relatively low case numbers and the gaps will be wider between high case numbers.
Instead they can randomly unselect every 3 out of all 10 winners from Nigeria and get the same results. In this case the gaps will spread evenly between all case numbers.
In any case, the important thing is that the case numbers of Africa are much higher than normally because they represent 64K winners, not 52K !!
For Asia DV12, Bangladesh plays the role of Nigeria and when applying the above process the results looks reasonable
For Africa the story is more complicated because the same idea applies to Egypt, Ethiopia and Ghana which have relatively high number of participants and low number of winners.
Each may cause more gaps between the case numbers....
Unfortunately this does not answer the most important question - why is the advance rate for Africa so slow
let's hope soUnfortunately this does not answer the most important question - why is the advance rate for Africa so slow
indeed,they are less wide in low CNs given the progression in Egypt,Ethiopia & Nigeria.
perhaps they have monthly quotas & the big 3(Egypt,Ethiopia & Nigeria) take up a sizable chunk of this quota & the rest of Africa taking up the remains.
how are u coming up with this figure..64,706.
Thanks for the heads up
.enchevetrement
Registered Users (C)
how are u coming up with this figure..64,706.
Thanks for the heads up
That number is not really important (but see below...)
The important thing is that even the high case numbers are not that high... I'm quite sure that on May 1st they informed about 35% of those selected (I'm quite sure about Asia and there is no reason that it is different for other regions) so even the highest number is in the first 35%
Particularly, in Africa there are big gaps between the case numbers. Same principal caused the huge case numbers for Asia in DV12 - highest number was 73,398 ! This year the highest is ~10,500. The reason was Bangladesh. In Africa it is the big trio
----
So about that number...it is just to make a point
* There are 4,657,512 participants from all of Africa - fact
* There are 1,356,396 participants from Nigeria = 29.123% - fact
* So 70.877% are not from Nigeria.
* There are 6,218 winners from Nigeria out of 52,080 - fact
* So there are 45,862 winners that are not from Nigeria.
Question: We have a big hat with a large number of ribbons. 70.877% are red and 29.123% are blue. We select randomly with equal probability. How many should we select to get 45,862 red?
Answer : 45,862 / 0.70877 = 64,706
So, they select 64,706, get 45,862 red and 18,844 blue (Nigeria)
Then they 'unselect' 12,626 Nigerians and are left with 6,218.
45,862 red + 6,218 blue = 52,080
All this is just for Nigeria... there are also Ethiopia Gahna and Egypt to consider...
So they 'unselect' more winners and create more gaps between valid case numbers
I just read on another thread that Princedriss spoke to his local US consulate who said that DV2013 will be like DV2008 so many people will end up being current in September or not current at all. What are the chances of this?
I only hope numbers become current by June or July at the latest.
The last two DVs went faster so whats the catch? My whole damn stress is not even about money or documentation but more so about becoming current :-|
DV2013AF0007XXXX
Entry Checked: 01/05/2012
Forms sent to KCC: 10/05/2012
Confirmed by KCC via e-mail: 25/05/12
Confirmation 2 by KCC via e-mail: 31/12/2012 - confirming my documents were acceptable for processing on a query I had on I-134
Medicals: NOT YET - will schedule the medical as soon as I receive my 2nd NL
2nd NL: NOT YET - I hope to receive this sometime between June and August
Police : NOT YET - I will prepare certificates two months before the interview
Interview: NOT YET - hopefully between June and August
Port of Entry - New York JFK - hopefully in September or October 2013 via a nice flight on Emirates
I only hope numbers become current by June or July at the latest.
The last two DVs went faster so whats the catch? My whole damn stress is not even about money or documentation but more so about becoming current :-|
DV2013AF0007XXXX
Entry Checked: 01/05/2012
Forms sent to KCC: 10/05/2012
Confirmed by KCC via e-mail: 25/05/12
Confirmation 2 by KCC via e-mail: 31/12/2012 - confirming my documents were acceptable for processing on a query I had on I-134
Medicals: NOT YET - will schedule the medical as soon as I receive my 2nd NL
2nd NL: NOT YET - I hope to receive this sometime between June and August
Police : NOT YET - I will prepare certificates two months before the interview
Interview: NOT YET - hopefully between June and August
Port of Entry - New York JFK - hopefully in September or October 2013 via a nice flight on Emirates
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Princedriss
Registered Users (C)
Yes i did speak to a worker in the US consulate and she told me that. That is mainly because of the US election, everything slows down like in 2008 , 2004,2000 ... Clinton is quiting the departement of state and that is another reason. This year will be difficult for those who have a case number larger than 50k.
Momo, you have to put in mind that having a lot of money will not guarentee u to go to US, as i told u before, u just need to have 3k in the account to be acceptable on the DV visa, just understand that the US consulate does not care that u gonna be rich or poor rather than the time u gonna be current.
My case number is 70k , and i believe that 60% that i wont get current or i will have the interview in late september.
Momo, you have to put in mind that having a lot of money will not guarentee u to go to US, as i told u before, u just need to have 3k in the account to be acceptable on the DV visa, just understand that the US consulate does not care that u gonna be rich or poor rather than the time u gonna be current.
My case number is 70k , and i believe that 60% that i wont get current or i will have the interview in late september.
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You really think so? I mean is it realistic that each person out of the first batch of up to 50,000 will go through?
Also taxes and insurance shot up in the US from what I've been reading and hearing from friends there so I would assume it isn't much of an incentive for people to go to America.
I wish I'd have applied for DV2012 because it was the best one so far but at that time I had no intention of moving to America.
I still have faith that we'll be current even if its in September. Besides it gives me more time to keep some extra money in my piggy bank
Princedriss
Registered Users (C)
where u did u study and in what field u are working ?
am not saying that we dont have chance ( for people over 60k ) but i just judging that the visa issued this year will be not more than 45k ! we will c.
anyway i was very optimist at the beginning when i was taken, but after the last visa bultin am feeling it is gonna be like in 2008, and yea i can say that am becoming pessimist since i talked to that woman from the consulate. I know very well the US since i lived there for a long, but if i don't get current or an interview, i wont get mad, i ll just keep working in my actual job.
am not saying that we dont have chance ( for people over 60k ) but i just judging that the visa issued this year will be not more than 45k ! we will c.
anyway i was very optimist at the beginning when i was taken, but after the last visa bultin am feeling it is gonna be like in 2008, and yea i can say that am becoming pessimist since i talked to that woman from the consulate. I know very well the US since i lived there for a long, but if i don't get current or an interview, i wont get mad, i ll just keep working in my actual job.
enchevetrement
Registered Users (C)
2013 is nothing like 2008...
I'm not saying that this consulate person does not know what she is talking about (at least not saying this to her face )
Couple of points to ponder:
1. The interviews for DV2008 ended on September 2008, two months before the elections. The interviews for DV13 will end on September 2013, about a year after the election...
2. in DV08 there were 2,590,622 entries from Africa. In DV13 there were 4,657,512 entries - 80% more entries.
As a result, for example, an entry from Nigeria had 1.28% chances to be selected in DV08 (8,773 of 684,735) and only 0.46% in DV13 (6,218 of 1,356,396)
Why is this important? I'll spare you the 'logic' and jump to the bottom line:
when there are countries in a region with relatively many participants and relatively low number of selected entries then there are many 'holes' between the valid case numbers.
In other words, case number 47000 in DV08 would be equivalent to a much higher case number in DV13
3. Case number 70K is high but not that high - there are cases 8xK this year...
4. Not all selected entries are informed. Only about 30-40% are informed. If you go informed then it means that you are among those first 30-40%... If every selected entry receives a visa (along with their companions) then there would be enough visas only to the first ~28% selected entries. But this is usually not the case so you have a fair chance
5. Last but not least... they would not bother to inform you that you got selected and spend time and money handling your papers if they did not think you have a chance...
Yet, it may be that all I have written above is nonsense and you are right... we'll know on September 30th
best of luck!
I'm not saying that this consulate person does not know what she is talking about (at least not saying this to her face
)Couple of points to ponder:
1. The interviews for DV2008 ended on September 2008, two months before the elections. The interviews for DV13 will end on September 2013, about a year after the election...
2. in DV08 there were 2,590,622 entries from Africa. In DV13 there were 4,657,512 entries - 80% more entries.
As a result, for example, an entry from Nigeria had 1.28% chances to be selected in DV08 (8,773 of 684,735) and only 0.46% in DV13 (6,218 of 1,356,396)
Why is this important? I'll spare you the 'logic' and jump to the bottom line:
when there are countries in a region with relatively many participants and relatively low number of selected entries then there are many 'holes' between the valid case numbers.
In other words, case number 47000 in DV08 would be equivalent to a much higher case number in DV13
3. Case number 70K is high but not that high - there are cases 8xK this year...
4. Not all selected entries are informed. Only about 30-40% are informed. If you go informed then it means that you are among those first 30-40%... If every selected entry receives a visa (along with their companions) then there would be enough visas only to the first ~28% selected entries. But this is usually not the case so you have a fair chance
5. Last but not least... they would not bother to inform you that you got selected and spend time and money handling your papers if they did not think you have a chance...
Yet, it may be that all I have written above is nonsense and you are right... we'll know on September 30th
best of luck!