Wish i could read future!
Regards.
We are in same situation as you and decided just chill since there is nothing we can do but wait.
In the middle time we'll try to get all documents needed and save as much as we can.
Wish i could read future!
Regards.
Guess what..I have & its brightWish i could read future!
So if my understanding is correct my number (I'm from the Africa region) would most likely get called for an interview correct? I'm guessing I'd be current between June and September?
I'm not stressed about finances or sponsors but I've wanted to live in the US since I first visited 10 years ago so this is hopefully my best chance to achieve that dream.
Give or take...hopefully earlier.I'm guessing I'd be current between June and September?
Read the past!
Couple of points to ponder
* Take for example dadadada72 who reports in the signature the case number 2011AF00088XXX and picking up the visa on Sept 8th 2011
* I did not investigate the AF case numbers but what I figured out from the AS numbers is that only about 35% of those selected were notified on May. I would expect this ratio to be true for the other regions as well. So it means that you are among the first 35-40% of those selected !
* The case numbers for Africa do not represent visa numbers because there are many 'holes' between valid case numbers. This is because of Ethiopia and Nigeria. The rule of thumb is this: if there are in the region countries with relatively high number of participants and relatively low number of winners then there would be wide 'holes' between valid case numbers. This same effect caused the huge case numbers for AS in DV12 in comparison with DV13 (a.k.a the Bangladesh effect)
* Last but not least: It cost money to handle your papers. If they thought that you do not have a chance to get an interview then they wouldn't have bothered to notify you in the first place. You got notified means that they believe that you have a good chance
best of luck!
hmmmm... if this were the case, wouldn't the numbers move faster?So far,the movement of out numbers is comparable to DV2k8-9.* The case numbers for Africa do not represent visa numbers because there are many 'holes' between valid case numbers.
Month | DV 99-2k | DV 2k0-1 | DV 2k1-2 | DV 2k2-3 | DV 2k3-4 | DV 2k4-5 | DV 2k5-6 | DV 2k6-7 | DV 2k7-8 | DV 2k8-9 | Dv 2k9-10 | Dv 2k10-11 | DV 2k11-12 | Dv 2k12-13 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
October | 12,001 | 12,500 | 4,650 | 9,300 | 9,900 | 6,000 | 5,700 except Egypt 3,100 Ethiopia 3,500 Nigeria 2,700 | 6,700 except Egypt 3,400 Ethiopia 2,900 Nigeria 4,700 | 6,900 except Egypt 3,100 Ethiopia 3,600 Nigeria 3,350 | 8,300 except Egypt 3,100 Ethiopia 3,900 Nigeria 5,500 | 9,000 except Egypt 5,050 Ethiopia 7,450 Nigeria 7,450 | 8,500 except Egypt 5,000 Ethiopia 7,000 Nigeria 7,000 | 8,000 except Egypt 5,500 Ethiopia 5,500 Nigeria 5,500 | |
November | 12,704 | 12,903 | 7,800 | 11,700 except Egypt Ethiopia 9,000 Nigeria | 10,300 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 9,900 | 6,000 except Egypt Ethiopia 4,600 Nigeria 3,700 | 8,500 except Egypt 5,600 Ethiopia 5,600 Nigeria 4,300 | 10,000 except Egypt 6,000 Ethiopia 5,000 Nigeria 6,300 | 12,500 except Egypt 5,900 Ethiopia 6,300 Nigeria 6,000 | 14,000 except Egypt 6,200 Ethiopia 6,700 Nigeria 8,700 | 12,000 except Egypt 9,300 Ethiopia 11,000 Nigeria 10,000 | 13,000 except Egypt 8,000 Ethiopia 10,000 Nigeria 10,000 | 13,900 except Egypt 6,600 Ethiopia 9,100 Nigeria 8,500 | |
December | 12,800 except Ghana 6,040 Ethiopia Nigeria 5,801 | 13,800 | 9,800 | 14,450 except Ethiopia 12,400 | 14,000 except Nigeria 11,300 | 7,500 except Ethiopia 6,800 Nigeria 5,400 | 10,300 except Egypt 7,700 Ethiopia 7,300 Nigeria 5,900 | 11,000 except Egypt 8,400 Ethiopia 6,950 Nigeria 6,900 | 15,100 except Egypt 8,700 Ethiopia 7,900 Nigeria 6,700 | 17,800 except Egypt 9,100 Ethiopia 9,000 Nigeria 10,400 | 15,650 except Egypt 12,600 Ethiopia 12,250 Nigeria 10,850 | 18,500 except Egypt 12,700 Ethiopia 13,560 Nigeria 12,000 | 15,500 except Egypt 8,300 Ethiopia 14,800 Nigeria 10,000 | |
January | 12,800 except Ghana 6,040 Ethiopia Nigeria 5,801 | 14,000 | 11,500 | 17,700 except Egypt 11,000 Ethiopia 15,600 Nigeria 15,400 | 17,400 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 14,600 | 9,000 except Egypt Ethiopia 6,400 Nigeria 5,400 | 11,000 except Egypt 10900 Ethiopia 9000 Nigeria 7000 | 13,100 except Egypt 11,000 Ethiopia 8,600 Nigeria 7,200 | 18,300 except Egypt 10,800 Ethiopia 10,000 Nigeria 8,400 | 23,400 except Egypt 12,300 Ethiopia 12,475 Nigeria 12,900 | 20,900 except Egypt 16,000 Ethiopia 13,200 Nigeria 12,100 | 24,700 except Egypt 16,800 Ethiopia 16,800 Nigeria 14,500 | 18,100 except Egypt 10,900 Ethiopia 16,700 Nigeria 10,000 | |
February | 13,800 except Ghana 6,040 Ethiopia Nigeria 5,801 | 14,100 | 12,250 | 20,400 except Egypt Ethiopia 18,600 Nigeria 15,400 | 20,225 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 17,600 | 11,600 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 8150 | 11,850 except Egypt 13,300 Ethiopia 10,800 Nigeria 7,600 | 16,200 except Egypt 13,300 Ethiopia 10,200 Nigeria 7,700 | 23,300 except Egypt 13,300 Ethiopia 11,650 Nigeria 9,500 | 27,500 except Egypt 15,600 Ethiopia 14,700 Nigeria 14,000 | 26,100 except Egypt 20,200 Ethiopia 15,000 Nigeria 12,100 | 32,000 except Egypt 21,000 Ethiopia 21,500 Nigeria 16,000 | 22,000 except Egypt 13,000 Ethiopia 20,400 Nigeria 11,000 | |
March | 14,801 except Egypt Ghana 6,040 Nigeria 6,770 | 14,100 | 14150 | 23,200 except Egypt Ethiopia 21,900 Nigeria 16,475 | 22,800 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 17,600 | 14,200 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 9,550 | 15,250 except Egypt Ethiopia 13,300 Nigeria 9,125 | 18,500 except Egypt 15,700 Ethiopia 12,100 Nigeria 8,750 | 26,800 except Egypt 16,000 Ethiopia 13,800 Nigeria 9,900 | 29,600 except Egypt 18,000 Ethiopia 16,950 Nigeria 14,350 | 31,950 except Egypt 24,275 Ethiopia 18,650 Nigeria 13,100 | 35,800 except Egypt 26,000 Ethiopia 26,000 Nigeria 17,500 | except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria | |
April | 16,780 except Ghana 6,620 Nigeria 8,060 | 14,100 except Egypt Ethiopia 16,800 Nigeria | 12,800 | 16,500 | 24,800 except Egypt Ethiopia 24,100 Nigeria 16,475 | 25,100 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 19,700 | 16,950 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 10,900 | 17,700 except Egypt Ethiopia 15,400 Nigeria 10,750 | 21,500 except Egypt 17,900 Ethiopia 14,150 Nigeria 9,900 | 26,900 except Egypt 17,400 Ethiopia 15,700 Nigeria 9,900 | 31,700 except Egypt 20,800 Ethiopia 19,300 Nigeria 14,600 | 35,450 except Egypt 27,000 Ethiopia 22,150 Nigeria 14,100 | 39,000 except Egypt 29,500 Ethiopia 29,500 Nigeria 20,000 | except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria |
May | 19950 except Ghana 8,120 Nigeria 8,060 | 14,750 | 17,000 | 19,880 | 26,200 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 16,500 | 27,700 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 21,300 | 20,400 except Egypt Ethiopia 18950 Nigeria 12,350 | 20,550 except Egypt 20,500 Ethiopia 17100 Nigeria 12,375 | 26,700 except Egypt 20,500 Ethiopia 16,000 Nigeria 11,600 | 32,400 except Egypt 19,150 Ethiopia 17,750 Nigeria 11,550 | 39,200 except Egypt 23,600 Ethiopia 22,500 Nigeria 16,200 | 42,000 except Egypt 31,200 Ethiopia 26,200 Nigeria 15,450 | 50,000 except Egypt 33,000 Ethiopia 33,000 Nigeria 25,000 | except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria |
June | 23,450 except Ghana 9,030 | 19,930 | 21,400 | 26,100 | 28,300 except Ghana 11,500 Nigeria 16,500 | 28,450 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 21,400 | 23,500 except Egypt Ethiopia 20,400 Nigeria 13,400 | 27,000 except Egypt 21,800 Ethiopia 18,900 Nigeria 14,600 | 32,000 except Egypt 22,000 Ethiopia 17,750 Nigeria 13,000 | 39,600 except Egypt 20,650 Ethiopia 19,500 Nigeria 12,750 | 45,600 except Egypt 24,200 Ethiopia 25,100 Nigeria 17,500 | 49,300 except Egypt 34,300 Ethiopia 28,525 Nigeria 17,150 | CURRENT except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria | except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria |
July | 26,600 except Ghana 10,720 | 24,700 except Ethiopia 19,700 | 25,650 | 31,650 | 32,500 except Ghana 22,000 Nigeria 17100 | 32,800 except Ethiopia 29,400 Nigeria 23300 | 27,850 except Ethiopia 22,800 Nigeria 14,675 | 35,500 except Egypt 22,600 Ethiopia 22,900 Nigeria 16,150 | 38,050 except Egypt 25,000 Ethiopia 19,800 Nigeria 14,650 | 48,700 except Egypt 21,600 Ethiopia 21,100 Nigeria 14,400 | 54,100 except Egypt 24,500 Ethiopia 25,100 Nigeria 18,850 | 57,600 except Egypt 35,000 Ethiopia 30,650 Nigeria 18500 | CURRENT except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria | except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria |
August | 28,850 except Nigeria 13,675 | 29,150 except Ethiopia 24,100 | 33,250 | 37,200 | 34,300 except Ghana 22,000 Nigeria 17,100 | 39,500 except Ethiopia 30,100 | 33,900 except Ethiopia 24,100 Nigeria 16,000 | 47,000 except Egypt 31,000 Ethiopia 22,800 Nigeria 16,600 | 64,300 except Egypt 22,750 Ethiopia 22,800 Nigeria 15,650 | 64,300 except Egypt 22,750 Ethiopia 25,625 Nigeria 22,000 | 71,800 except Egypt 32,400 Ethiopia Nigeria | CURRENT except Egypt Etiopia Nigeria | CURRENT except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria | except Egypt 32,400 Ethiopia Nigeria |
Sept | CURRENT except Nigeria 13,676 | CURRENT | 49,350 except Ethiopia 43,500 | 35,450 except Ghana 27,600 Nigeria 18,600 | 46,700 except Ethiopia 32,500 | CURRENT except Egypt 24,300 Ethiopia 25,300 | CURRENT except Egypt 22,600 Ethiopia 16,000 Nigeria 20,700 | 62,300 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 18,450 | CURRENT except Egypt Ethiopia 26,350 Nigeria | CURRENT except Egypt Ethiopia 32,700 Nigeria | CURRENT except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria | CURRENT except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria | except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria |
How does this explain how many Kenyans' CNs fall between 40 - 70k?The rule of thumb is this: if there are in the region countries with relatively high number of participants and relatively low number of winners then there would be wide 'holes' between valid case numbers.
How does this explain how many Kenyans' CNs fall between 40 - 70k?
Take Nigeria's case:does the high participation rate contribute to their seemingly "low" CNs?
Dear Obeezyb,i had to google for M.I.A. meaning .I'm loss in abbreviations.
You are right,i guess this M.I.A thing is part of the pretended chilling process.
we live & we learn.Dear Obeezyb,i had to google for M.I.A. meaning
that's where Google comes in.I'm loss in abbreviations.
well said.You are right,i guess this M.I.A thing is part of the pretended chilling process.
Hmm... does this mean that people from Nigeria have low case numbers? It actually would make sense if they all have relatively low CN. It would also mean that the gaps between the case numbers is wider between high numbers than between low numbers
The Africa results are a bit enigmatic to me. I have no idea why the advance rate is slower in comparison with DV12
Though, about the 'rule of thumb' - it seems to work perfectly for Asia. I applied it for for past DV and it 'normalized' the numbers (graph)
--------------------------------
WARNING: Log post. Lots of numbers. Headache hazard. Enter with caution!
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The idea is this:
According to the Foreign Affairs Manual Volume 9, note 6.4:
"
...At the end of the registration period, a computer will randomly select numbers. ... All entries successfully received during the registration period will have an equal chance of selection within the respective region.
"
Now, take Africa DV13 probabilities for Nigeria:
1,356,396 participants (30% of the total 4,657,512). In a random process with equal chances you would expect 15,167 winners. But there are only 6,218
So either
(1) the process is not "random with equal chances", or
(2) there is some 'post processing' on the results.
With option 1 I don't know how to cope... so I'll put it aside.
For option 2, the following process seems reasonable enough:
a. They select 64,706 entries from Africa, instead of only 52,080
b. The process is random with equal chances so they get 18,844 (~30%) from Nigeria and 45,862 (~70%) from the rest of Africa.
c. Now, they 'unselect' 12,626 entries from Nigeria. They are left with 6,218 from Nigeria and 45,862 from the rest of Africa - total of 52,080
Those 12k entries that they unselected causes the gaps between the case numbers...
Now, if they 'unselect' entries 6,218+1 through entry 18,844 then all the entries left from Nigeria will have relatively low case numbers and the gaps will be wider between high case numbers.
Instead they can randomly unselect every 3 out of all 10 winners from Nigeria and get the same results. In this case the gaps will spread evenly between all case numbers.
In any case, the important thing is that the case numbers of Africa are much higher than normally because they represent 64K winners, not 52K !!
For Asia DV12, Bangladesh plays the role of Nigeria and when applying the above process the results looks reasonable
For Africa the story is more complicated because the same idea applies to Egypt, Ethiopia and Ghana which have relatively high number of participants and low number of winners.
Each may cause more gaps between the case numbers....
Unfortunately this does not answer the most important question - why is the advance rate for Africa so slow I have no idea... maybe the gaps are less wide in low numbers and the process will pick up speed next month
let's hope soUnfortunately this does not answer the most important question - why is the advance rate for Africa so slow I have no idea... maybe the gaps are less wide in low numbers and the process will pick up speed next month
indeed,they are less wide in low CNs given the progression in Egypt,Ethiopia & Nigeria.maybe the gaps are less wide in low numbers
perhaps they have monthly quotas & the big 3(Egypt,Ethiopia & Nigeria) take up a sizable chunk of this quota & the rest of Africa taking up the remains.Unfortunately this does not answer the most important question - why is the advance rate for Africa so slow
how are u coming up with this figure..64,706.a. They select 64,706 entries from Africa, instead of only 52,080
how are u coming up with this figure..64,706.
Thanks for the heads up .
Yes i did speak to a worker in the US consulate and she told me that. That is mainly because of the US election, everything slows down like in 2008 , 2004,2000 ... Clinton is quiting the departement of state and that is another reason. This year will be difficult for those who have a case number larger than 50k.
Momo, you have to put in mind that having a lot of money will not guarentee u to go to US, as i told u before, u just need to have 3k in the account to be acceptable on the DV visa, just understand that the US consulate does not care that u gonna be rich or poor rather than the time u gonna be current.
My case number is 70k , and i believe that 60% that i wont get current or i will have the interview in late september.
Yes i did speak to a worker in the US consulate and she told me that. That is mainly because of the US election, everything slows down like in 2008 , 2004,2000 ...My case number is 70k , and i believe that 60% that i wont get current ....