High Case Numer

[Henrica80]

I'm not saying that this consulate person does not know what she is talking about (at least not saying this to her face )

Couple of points to ponder:

1. The interviews for DV2008 ended on September 2008, two months before the elections. The interviews for DV13 will end on September 2013, about a year after the election...

2. in DV08 there were 2,590,622 entries from Africa. In DV13 there were 4,657,512 entries - 80% more entries.

As a result, for example, an entry from Nigeria had 1.28% chances to be selected in DV08 (8,773 of 684,735) and only 0.46% in DV13 (6,218 of 1,356,396)

Why is this important? I'll spare you the 'logic' and jump to the bottom line:

when there are countries in a region with relatively many participants and relatively low number of selected entries then there are many 'holes' between the valid case numbers.

In other words, case number 47000 in DV08 would be equivalent to a much higher case number in DV13

3. Case number 70K is high but not that high - there are cases 8xK this year...

4. Not all selected entries are informed. Only about 30-40% are informed. If you go informed then it means that you are among those first 30-40%... If every selected entry receives a visa (along with their companions) then there would be enough visas only to the first ~28% selected entries. But this is usually not the case so you have a fair chance

5. Last but not least... they would not bother to inform you that you got selected and spend time and money handling your papers if they did not think you have a chance...


Yet, it may be that all I have written above is nonsense and you are right... we'll know on September 30th

best of luck!

I just clicked like button to this post

 

[Momo1980]

where u did u study and in what field u are working ?

am not saying that we dont have chance ( for people over 60k ) but i just judging that the visa issued this year will be not more than 45k ! we will c.

anyway i was very optimist at the beginning when i was taken, but after the last visa bultin am feeling it is gonna be like in 2008, and yea i can say that am becoming pessimist since i talked to that woman from the consulate. I know very well the US since i lived there for a long, but if i don't get current or an interview, i wont get mad, i ll just keep working in my actual job.

I studied accountancy in the UK but I own a portfolio of industries and real estate investments.

I always had the ambition to have my own franchise brand and go for an IPO in America someday if I got a chance to live there...I hope I can still achieve that dream.

 

[Momo1980]

I'm not saying that this consulate person does not know what she is talking about (at least not saying this to her face )

Couple of points to ponder:

1. The interviews for DV2008 ended on September 2008, two months before the elections. The interviews for DV13 will end on September 2013, about a year after the election...

2. in DV08 there were 2,590,622 entries from Africa. In DV13 there were 4,657,512 entries - 80% more entries.

As a result, for example, an entry from Nigeria had 1.28% chances to be selected in DV08 (8,773 of 684,735) and only 0.46% in DV13 (6,218 of 1,356,396)

Why is this important? I'll spare you the 'logic' and jump to the bottom line:

when there are countries in a region with relatively many participants and relatively low number of selected entries then there are many 'holes' between the valid case numbers.

In other words, case number 47000 in DV08 would be equivalent to a much higher case number in DV13

3. Case number 70K is high but not that high - there are cases 8xK this year...

4. Not all selected entries are informed. Only about 30-40% are informed. If you go informed then it means that you are among those first 30-40%... If every selected entry receives a visa (along with their companions) then there would be enough visas only to the first ~28% selected entries. But this is usually not the case so you have a fair chance

5. Last but not least... they would not bother to inform you that you got selected and spend time and money handling your papers if they did not think you have a chance...


Yet, it may be that all I have written above is nonsense and you are right... we'll know on September 30th

best of luck!

So what you're saying is they only "informed" 30% to 40% of selectees on May 1st? It sounds like pre-planned processing/selection.

However doesn't it contradict the visa bulletin? I just read that March cutoff is around 25,000 so if case numbers are high it would be indicated on the visa bulletin correct and if they don't bring up high case numbers then we're out of luck isn't it?

Phew this is stressful :-|

 

[Momo1980]

I just read on another thread that the March cut-off for Africa is 25,850 which is absolutely crap because it means that there is a massive demand for GCs.

At this rate when the hell would people with high case numbers be current if at all?

It looks like DV-2008 again but we don't know if numbers will go "current" on the bulletin.

The agony...

 

[Princedriss]

oh crap, 25850 ! it is getting bad now

 

[Princedriss]

I'm not saying that this consulate person does not know what she is talking about (at least not saying this to her face )

Couple of points to ponder:

1. The interviews for DV2008 ended on September 2008, two months before the elections. The interviews for DV13 will end on September 2013, about a year after the election...

2. in DV08 there were 2,590,622 entries from Africa. In DV13 there were 4,657,512 entries - 80% more entries.

As a result, for example, an entry from Nigeria had 1.28% chances to be selected in DV08 (8,773 of 684,735) and only 0.46% in DV13 (6,218 of 1,356,396)

Why is this important? I'll spare you the 'logic' and jump to the bottom line:

when there are countries in a region with relatively many participants and relatively low number of selected entries then there are many 'holes' between the valid case numbers.

In other words, case number 47000 in DV08 would be equivalent to a much higher case number in DV13

3. Case number 70K is high but not that high - there are cases 8xK this year...

4. Not all selected entries are informed. Only about 30-40% are informed. If you go informed then it means that you are among those first 30-40%... If every selected entry receives a visa (along with their companions) then there would be enough visas only to the first ~28% selected entries. But this is usually not the case so you have a fair chance

5. Last but not least... they would not bother to inform you that you got selected and spend time and money handling your papers if they did not think you have a chance...


Yet, it may be that all I have written above is nonsense and you are right... we'll know on September 30th

best of luck!

Thanks for answering, but i dont want false hopes, it is moving so slow my friend, that means a lot of demand, more people are aware that they have won compared to other years, we will see

 

[Princedriss]

I studied accountancy in the UK but I own a portfolio of industries and real estate investments.

I always had the ambition to have my own franchise brand and go for an IPO in America someday if I got a chance to live there...I hope I can still achieve that dream.

listen man, u can apply for investor visa or business visa u can have it so quick and u can make ur GC easily, u just need to have at least 500k in ur account i guess.

 

[Rachel1812]

Well one thing for sure,by july 15th we'll all know about our fate.Can we endure till then in one piece?Let's hope so.
Another point is,why they bothered in releasing more winners on octuber 22th?

 

[Momo1980]

I'm not saying that this consulate person does not know what she is talking about (at least not saying this to her face )

Couple of points to ponder:

1. The interviews for DV2008 ended on September 2008, two months before the elections. The interviews for DV13 will end on September 2013, about a year after the election...

2. in DV08 there were 2,590,622 entries from Africa. In DV13 there were 4,657,512 entries - 80% more entries.

As a result, for example, an entry from Nigeria had 1.28% chances to be selected in DV08 (8,773 of 684,735) and only 0.46% in DV13 (6,218 of 1,356,396)

Why is this important? I'll spare you the 'logic' and jump to the bottom line:

when there are countries in a region with relatively many participants and relatively low number of selected entries then there are many 'holes' between the valid case numbers.

In other words, case number 47000 in DV08 would be equivalent to a much higher case number in DV13

3. Case number 70K is high but not that high - there are cases 8xK this year...

4. Not all selected entries are informed. Only about 30-40% are informed. If you go informed then it means that you are among those first 30-40%... If every selected entry receives a visa (along with their companions) then there would be enough visas only to the first ~28% selected entries. But this is usually not the case so you have a fair chance

5. Last but not least... they would not bother to inform you that you got selected and spend time and money handling your papers if they did not think you have a chance...


Yet, it may be that all I have written above is nonsense and you are right... we'll know on September 30th

best of luck!

Pardon my literary ignorance but what exactly do you mean by "holes" between valid case numbers?

Strangely enough whenever I have communicated with the KCC they have told me that my paperwork is being processed which is really very vague because it doesn't tell me that my paper is in the running and I'll get a potential interview or if its sitting on a pile waiting to be picked up lol

 

[Momo1980]

Well one thing for sure,by july 15th we'll all know about our fate.Can we endure till then in one piece?Let's hope so.
Another point is,why they bothered in releasing more winners on octuber 22th?

Well we're 7 months away from July so all we can do is hope and pray...

 

[Momo1980]

Comparison of Numbers

DV 2008-2009 - March @ 26,800 and April @ 26,900

DV 2009-2010 - March @ 29,600 and April @ 31,700

DV 2010-2011 - March @ 31,950 and April @ 35,450

DV 2011-2012 - March @ 35,800 and April @ 39,000

DV 2012-2013 - March @ 25,850 and April @ 33,500



Looks like a massive improvement from last month so lets hope for May it hits at least 45,000.

Keep the prayers going and keep the faith.

 

[Princedriss]

Cool till now, however, it is still so much lower than last year.

 

[Obeezyb]

Cool till now, however, it is still so much lower than last year.

Last year was an exception,we shouldn't pace ourselves with its numbers.

 

[Obeezyb]

Perhaps this will take the edge off...

Month	DV 99-2k	DV 2k0-1	DV 2k1-2	DV 2k2-3	DV 2k3-4	DV 2k4-5	DV 2k5-6	DV 2k6-7	DV 2k7-8	DV 2k8-9	Dv 2k9-10	Dv 2k10-11	DV 2k11-12	Dv 2k12-13
October	12,001		12,500	4,650	9,300	9,900	6,000	5,700 except Egypt 3,100 Ethiopia 3,500 Nigeria 2,700	6,700 except Egypt 3,400 Ethiopia 2,900 Nigeria 4,700	6,900 except Egypt 3,100 Ethiopia 3,600 Nigeria 3,350	8,300 except Egypt 3,100 Ethiopia 3,900 Nigeria 5,500	9,000 except Egypt 5,050 Ethiopia 7,450 Nigeria 7,450	8,500 except Egypt 5,000 Ethiopia 7,000 Nigeria 7,000	8,000 except Egypt 5,500 Ethiopia 5,500 Nigeria 5,500
November	12,704	12,903		7,800	11,700 except Egypt Ethiopia 9,000 Nigeria	10,300 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 9,900	6,000 except Egypt Ethiopia 4,600 Nigeria 3,700	8,500 except Egypt 5,600 Ethiopia 5,600 Nigeria 4,300	10,000 except Egypt 6,000 Ethiopia 5,000 Nigeria 6,300	12,500 except Egypt 5,900 Ethiopia 6,300 Nigeria 6,000	14,000 except Egypt 6,200 Ethiopia 6,700 Nigeria 8,700	12,000 except Egypt 9,300 Ethiopia 11,000 Nigeria 10,000	13,000 except Egypt 8,000 Ethiopia 10,000 Nigeria 10,000	13,900 except Egypt 6,600 Ethiopia 9,100 Nigeria 8,500
December	12,800 except Ghana 6,040 Ethiopia Nigeria 5,801	13,800		9,800	14,450 except Ethiopia 12,400	14,000 except Nigeria 11,300	7,500 except Ethiopia 6,800 Nigeria 5,400	10,300 except Egypt 7,700 Ethiopia 7,300 Nigeria 5,900	11,000 except Egypt 8,400 Ethiopia 6,950 Nigeria 6,900	15,100 except Egypt 8,700 Ethiopia 7,900 Nigeria 6,700	17,800 except Egypt 9,100 Ethiopia 9,000 Nigeria 10,400	15,650 except Egypt 12,600 Ethiopia 12,250 Nigeria 10,850	18,500 except Egypt 12,700 Ethiopia 13,560 Nigeria 12,000	15,500 except Egypt 8,300 Ethiopia 14,800 Nigeria 10,000
January	12,800 except Ghana 6,040 Ethiopia Nigeria 5,801	14,000		11,500	17,700 except Egypt 11,000 Ethiopia 15,600 Nigeria 15,400	17,400 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 14,600	9,000 except Egypt Ethiopia 6,400 Nigeria 5,400	11,000 except Egypt 10900 Ethiopia 9000 Nigeria 7000	13,100 except Egypt 11,000 Ethiopia 8,600 Nigeria 7,200	18,300 except Egypt 10,800 Ethiopia 10,000 Nigeria 8,400	23,400 except Egypt 12,300 Ethiopia 12,475 Nigeria 12,900	20,900 except Egypt 16,000 Ethiopia 13,200 Nigeria 12,100	24,700 except Egypt 16,800 Ethiopia 16,800 Nigeria 14,500	18,100 except Egypt 10,900 Ethiopia 16,700 Nigeria 10,000
February	13,800 except Ghana 6,040 Ethiopia Nigeria 5,801	14,100		12,250	20,400 except Egypt Ethiopia 18,600 Nigeria 15,400	20,225 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 17,600	11,600 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 8150	11,850 except Egypt 13,300 Ethiopia 10,800 Nigeria 7,600	16,200 except Egypt 13,300 Ethiopia 10,200 Nigeria 7,700	23,300 except Egypt 13,300 Ethiopia 11,650 Nigeria 9,500	27,500 except Egypt 15,600 Ethiopia 14,700 Nigeria 14,000	26,100 except Egypt 20,200 Ethiopia 15,000 Nigeria 12,100	32,000 except Egypt 21,000 Ethiopia 21,500 Nigeria 16,000	22,000 except Egypt 13,000 Ethiopia 20,400 Nigeria 11,000
March	14,801 except Egypt Ghana 6,040 Nigeria 6,770	14,100		14150	23,200 except Egypt Ethiopia 21,900 Nigeria 16,475	22,800 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 17,600	14,200 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 9,550	15,250 except Egypt Ethiopia 13,300 Nigeria 9,125	18,500 except Egypt 15,700 Ethiopia 12,100 Nigeria 8,750	26,800 except Egypt 16,000 Ethiopia 13,800 Nigeria 9,900	29,600 except Egypt 18,000 Ethiopia 16,950 Nigeria 14,350	31,950 except Egypt 24,275 Ethiopia 18,650 Nigeria 13,100	35,800 except Egypt 26,000 Ethiopia 26,000 Nigeria 17,500	25,850 except Egypt 15,600 Ethiopia 24,400 Nigeria 12,150
April	16,780 except Ghana 6,620 Nigeria 8,060	14,100 except Egypt Ethiopia 16,800 Nigeria	12,800	16,500	24,800 except Egypt Ethiopia 24,100 Nigeria 16,475	25,100 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 19,700	16,950 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 10,900	17,700 except Egypt Ethiopia 15,400 Nigeria 10,750	21,500 except Egypt 17,900 Ethiopia 14,150 Nigeria 9,900	26,900 except Egypt 17,400 Ethiopia 15,700 Nigeria 9,900	31,700 except Egypt 20,800 Ethiopia 19,300 Nigeria 14,600	35,450 except Egypt 27,000 Ethiopia 22,150 Nigeria 14,100	39,000 except Egypt 29,500 Ethiopia 29,500 Nigeria 20,000	33,500 except Egypt 19,175 Ethiopia 29,700 Nigeria 14,500
May	19950 except Ghana 8,120 Nigeria 8,060	14,750	17,000	19,880	26,200 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 16,500	27,700 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 21,300	20,400 except Egypt Ethiopia 18950 Nigeria 12,350	20,550 except Egypt 20,500 Ethiopia 17100 Nigeria 12,375	26,700 except Egypt 20,500 Ethiopia 16,000 Nigeria 11,600	32,400 except Egypt 19,150 Ethiopia 17,750 Nigeria 11,550	39,200 except Egypt 23,600 Ethiopia 22,500 Nigeria 16,200	42,000 except Egypt 31,200 Ethiopia 26,200 Nigeria 15,450	50,000 except Egypt 33,000 Ethiopia 33,000 Nigeria 25,000	except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria
June	23,450 except Ghana 9,030	19,930	21,400	26,100	28,300 except Ghana 11,500 Nigeria 16,500	28,450 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 21,400	23,500 except Egypt Ethiopia 20,400 Nigeria 13,400	27,000 except Egypt 21,800 Ethiopia 18,900 Nigeria 14,600	32,000 except Egypt 22,000 Ethiopia 17,750 Nigeria 13,000	39,600 except Egypt 20,650 Ethiopia 19,500 Nigeria 12,750	45,600 except Egypt 24,200 Ethiopia 25,100 Nigeria 17,500	49,300 except Egypt 34,300 Ethiopia 28,525 Nigeria 17,150	CURRENT except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria	except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria
July	26,600 except Ghana 10,720	24,700 except Ethiopia 19,700	25,650	31,650	32,500 except Ghana 22,000 Nigeria 17100	32,800 except Ethiopia 29,400 Nigeria 23300	27,850 except Ethiopia 22,800 Nigeria 14,675	35,500 except Egypt 22,600 Ethiopia 22,900 Nigeria 16,150	38,050 except Egypt 25,000 Ethiopia 19,800 Nigeria 14,650	48,700 except Egypt 21,600 Ethiopia 21,100 Nigeria 14,400	54,100 except Egypt 24,500 Ethiopia 25,100 Nigeria 18,850	57,600 except Egypt 35,000 Ethiopia 30,650 Nigeria 18500	CURRENT except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria	except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria
August	28,850 except Nigeria 13,675	29,150 except Ethiopia 24,100	33,250	37,200	34,300 except Ghana 22,000 Nigeria 17,100	39,500 except Ethiopia 30,100	33,900 except Ethiopia 24,100 Nigeria 16,000	47,000 except Egypt 31,000 Ethiopia 22,800 Nigeria 16,600	64,300 except Egypt 22,750 Ethiopia 22,800 Nigeria 15,650	64,300 except Egypt 22,750 Ethiopia 25,625 Nigeria 22,000	71,800 except Egypt 32,400 Ethiopia Nigeria	CURRENT except Egypt Etiopia Nigeria	CURRENT except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria	except Egypt 32,400 Ethiopia Nigeria
Sept	CURRENT except Nigeria 13,676		CURRENT	49,350 except Ethiopia 43,500	35,450 except Ghana 27,600 Nigeria 18,600	46,700 except Ethiopia 32,500	CURRENT except Egypt 24,300 Ethiopia 25,300	CURRENT except Egypt 22,600 Ethiopia 16,000 Nigeria 20,700	62,300 except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria 18,450	CURRENT except Egypt Ethiopia 26,350 Nigeria	CURRENT except Egypt Ethiopia 32,700 Nigeria	CURRENT except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria	CURRENT except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria	except Egypt Ethiopia Nigeria

Now things r looking up wouldn't u say.

Go go go.....

 

[Princedriss]

yes obee, so gooo gooo gooooo

I believe next time we will have 40k in africa, dont we ?

 

[Momo1980]

I'll be well chuffed/happy if we hit something around 45,000 for May and if June crosses 50,000 or becomes current.

I'm happy to get my interview in July or August because I'd have three months after the interview to arrange my businesses here to be able to run smoothly in my absence once I leave sometime in October.

If all goes well it looks like I'll be having my first Thanksgiving and Christmas in America this year and enjoy some cold weather as opposed to the scorching Tanzanian sun.

 

[Princedriss]

i would love to have the interview in late august, so that i can move to the US late september in order to enjoy the best weather of the fall in the US, it is not advised to land in the US neither in cold weather nor in the heat.

 

[BurundiWinner]

I would love a May interview, I've got weddings to go to in Tanzania in June and July. It would be good to go there with no worries, I want to activate my visa the same month I get it and come back to do other things; plus it will be double the celebration.

 

[adamkiaa]

he case numbers for Africa do not represent visa numbers because there are many 'holes' between valid case numbers. This is because of Ethiopia and Nigeria. The rule of thumb is this: if there are in the region countries with relatively high number of participants and relatively low number of winners then there would be wide 'holes' between valid case numbers. This same effect caused the huge case numbers for AS in DV12 in comparison with DV13 (a.k.a the Bangladesh effect)

 

[Princedriss]

he case numbers for Africa do not represent visa numbers because there are many 'holes' between valid case numbers. This is because of Ethiopia and Nigeria. The rule of thumb is this: if there are in the region countries with relatively high number of participants and relatively low number of winners then there would be wide 'holes' between valid case numbers. This same effect caused the huge case numbers for AS in DV12 in comparison with DV13 (a.k.a the Bangladesh effect)

more explication please ?