N-400 processing timeframes: Real or Fake?

O

obajaj

Registered Users (C)
In the last few months all processing timeframes for N-400 were posted at "7 months"

Recently, I noticed that USCIS has started putting an actual date on this report: (e.g. the Dec 14th, 2007 report)

The weird thing is that ALL district offices show a processing date of "May 19, 2007" for the N-400.... How can it be that all district offices are processing for the same date? Isn't it too much of a coincidence?

I wonder if:
1) These are just fake numbers to keep applicants satisfied.
2) This is the "worst case" or most backward date among all the District Offices.
3) This is the "worst case" or most backward date among the Service Centers.

I don't suppose calling the National Customer Service center would help? (Pretty sure they would not be able to explain such a huge "coincidence")
There is also no upcoming Ombudsman Teleconference call where we could ask this question.

I personally think that 3) may be the case, but what do people on this forum think?
 
obajaj said:
In the last few months all processing timeframes for N-400 were posted at "7 months"

Recently, I noticed that USCIS has started putting an actual date on this report: (e.g. the Dec 14th, 2007 report)

The weird thing is that ALL district offices show a processing date of "May 19, 2007" for the N-400.... How can it be that all district offices are processing for the same date? Isn't it too much of a coincidence?

I wonder if:
1) These are just fake numbers to keep applicants satisfied.
2) This is the "worst case" or most backward date among all the District Offices.
3) This is the "worst case" or most backward date among the Service Centers.

I don't suppose calling the National Customer Service center would help? (Pretty sure they would not be able to explain such a huge "coincidence")
There is also no upcoming Ombudsman Teleconference call where we could ask this question.

I personally think that 3) may be the case, but what do people on this forum think?
Click to expand...

Actually, by far not ALL district offices report May 19, 2007. Some DOs, such as Washington, D.C., are still reporting December 2006. Basically, what the processing date is supposed to mean is that as of the date of the latest update (in this case, December 14, 2007), the reporting DO has finished processing applications with a priority date of May 19, 2007 (or whatever PD is reported by it's respective office) or earlier. As for their actual validity, I don't know how much stock I take in it. I haven't seen too many accurate dates published by the USCIS.
 
Just to add another point to this discussion, I have not seen this date change since several weeks. They are reporting this date since over two months.
 
The posted times are based on targets, not on real time actual data. USCIS had shifted to using a target based system to "provide customers
more accurate information that better reflects current processing time and USCIS service level commitments."
 
Bobsmyth,

Even if those dates are based on targets, how can the targets for Ohio district offices still be May 19, 2007, when we already see so many approvals from Ohio (and their "load" is probably much less than other offices)

Isn't having the same target date for all district offices also too much of a coincidence?

I really wonder what that date really means? Why put it there if it doesn't mean anything?
 
They say it will be updated once a month. The current date is dec 14th. We should probably see an update sometime soon.
 
obajaj said:
Bobsmyth,

Even if those dates are based on targets, how can the targets for Ohio district offices still be May 19, 2007, when we already see so many approvals from Ohio (and their "load" is probably much less than other offices)

Isn't having the same target date for all district offices also too much of a coincidence?

I really wonder what that date really means? Why put it there if it doesn't mean anything?
Click to expand...

That is an indication that the Ohio DOs are ahead of their targets. The USICS's logic with using processing time goals is to standardize reporting so that it appears that all DOs are striving more or less for the same processing times.
 
I have been following up on the processing dates for almost 5 months now and I have seen them being changed regularly. They usually change around the 22nd of each month but the "last updated date" is always the 15th of the month. I checked last night and most offices are showing July 2007 except for the Des Moines DO which shows September 1st 07. That's my DO as well so I am hoping they are moving faster compared to the other DO's.
 
Bobsmyth said:
The posted times are based on targets, not on real time actual data. USCIS had shifted to using a target based system to "provide customers more accurate information that better reflects current processing time and USCIS service level commitments."
Click to expand...

This is pretty clear from the posted dates, which for most DOs are not only seven months, but exactly 210 days. But it seems to me that this does not "provide customers more accurate information." On the contrary, the most useful and accurate information we could have is the actual PDs they are working on. Targets, by definition, are useful for the future; applied to the past, such data is totally misleading.
 
just saw this other thread and the person received the IL within 10 days of the finger prints..the DO was cincinnati and the processing timeframe for that DO per USCIS website is July 20th. He filed in late december and got his IL like within the first week of january...so does that mean the dates on the website are bogus or he just got lucky?
 
alii121 said:
just saw this other thread and the person received the IL within 10 days of the finger prints..the DO was cincinnati and the processing timeframe for that DO per USCIS website is July 20th. He filed in late december and got his IL like within the first week of january...so does that mean the dates on the website are bogus or he just got lucky?
Click to expand...

It seems that they are based on retroactively applied targets - in other words, the date is meant to give a sense of what PDs your DO should be working on. Whether they actually are is anybody's guess. Your best bet is to search this forum for other applicants at your DO and see who is receiving interview letters; you can judge the accuracy of the target based on that. At my DO, several people who applied around the published processing date have received ILs, and several have not. Some that applied months letter have received ILs, and some that applied months earlier have not.
 
unfortunately i was unable to find anyone who has their case at the same DO as mine..I'm in Des Moines DO..apparently, there are not a lot of people applying for naturaliuzation here so i got nothing to compare with :(
 
alii121 said:
just saw this other thread and the person received the IL within 10 days of the finger prints..the DO was cincinnati and the processing timeframe for that DO per USCIS website is July 20th. He filed in late december and got his IL like within the first week of january...so does that mean the dates on the website are bogus or he just got lucky?
Click to expand...
I have been following the dates posted by the USCIS on their website for the past few months, and I will add my two cents to the discussion. This is my opinion only, and I welcome any discussion on it from other members.

For the most part, the pattern that I can detect is that, for any given period, many of the DOs seem to be processing at or around the same date. For example, the processing date of many DOs as of 1-15-08 was 6-19-07, and the processing date of many DOs as of 2-15-08 is posted as 7-20-07. Now, some DOs are slower, and some are faster. Some, such as San Jose, CA and Washington, DC, are really slow and the slow processing times are reflected in the dates posted by those DOs.

However, I have noted anectdotally from posts on this forum that some DOs are actually processing FASTER than their officially posted processing times. For example, some Ohio DOs are posted as processing cases with PD of 7-20-07, but we know many applicants who filed in September and even later are getting their ILs. So, it seems to me that USCIS uses these dates both to provide updates and to manage the public's expectations. If nothing more, this approach makes sense based on human nature. Applicants are much less likely to be upset by receiving an IL earlier than the posted processing time than by an IL that arrives 3 months after applications with the same PD have supposedly been processed. Put another way, nobody ever complains when the wait for a table at a restaurant takes 5 minutes instead of 20, but many people will complain about a 20 minute wait if they were initially promised a 5 minute wait.

This strategy also works in the USCIS' favor by giving the outside world (which is anybody who cares about these sorts of things) the ILLUSION that applications are processed much more uniformly and consistently than they actually are. If individuals just go by the official processing times, then things look quite similar across the country. It is only when information regarding processing dates is shared among applicants (like we are doing here) that are we able to see the inconsistencies - both in the process itself, as well as the timing among the different DOs.

This might be one reason that anytime a media outlet does a story on N-400 backlogs, they quote the standard 16 - 18 month timeline, because this is the "official word" of the USCIS. It's more convenient to accept this than to do a bit more research and discover that for many people the wait - while still long - will be much less than 16 months, and that timelines vary tremendously depending on where in the country an applicant lives. In general, I believe that we can use the processing dates as a rough guide post for application processing. I tend to think of it - in aggregate at least - as a "worst case" processing date at most DOs, rather than a "best case", although I realize that for some individual applicants this may not always hold true.

What do others think about this? Does it make sense or am I missing something?
 
Nope, you are right on the money and keep in mind that the dates published are "goals".

It's like a soccer game. We like to make 6 goals, but if we win by just one - well, it's a win, isn't it?

All fake stuff. All window dressing. That's not even remotely reliable data.
 
True. I certainly agree with what you guys are saying. Just another strategy USCIS is using to keep the applicants calm.
 
I was under the impression that I was considered a "customer" in the
eyes of USCIS. If the USCIS is user fee based, should I receiver
better/faster service than this? :)

When my parents recently renewed their US passports, they paid
double the normal fee, because they chose express service.

Heck, I'd be willing to pony up $1200 for N-400 application fee, if
the USCIS guarantees that the process will be finished with 10 to
12 months. :) While that's double the usual N-400 fee... it's well
worth it... when I travel to most countries, I have to get visa fees
from those countries, since my home country's passport doesn't get
me visa-free visits. If I become a US citizen, I can visit those same
countries visa-free, saving me hundreds of dollars in visa fee... :)
 
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