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Visa bulletin current in September 2013

Discussion in 'Lottery Visas - DV' started by pm2020, Jul 10, 2013.

  1. pm2020

    pm2020 Registered Users (C)

    Anyone's CN is current in September 2013?Time looks very tight,how can i get interview within a month?
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 10, 2013
  2. Mijoro

    Mijoro Active Member

    Are the new results out?
     
  3. Mijoro

    Mijoro Active Member

    B. DIVERSITY IMMIGRANT (DV) CATEGORY FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST

    Section 203(c) of the INA provides up to 55,000 immigrant visas each fiscal year to permit additional immigration opportunities for persons from countries with low admissions during the previous five years. The NACARA stipulates that beginning with DV-99, and for as long as necessary, up to 5,000 of the 55,000 annually-allocated diversity visas will be made available for use under the NACARA program. This resulted in reduction of the DV-2013 annual limit to 50,000. DV visas are divided among six geographic regions. No one country can receive more than seven percent of the available diversity visas in any one year.

    For August, immigrant numbers in the DV category are available to qualified DV-2013 applicants chargeable to all regions/eligible countries as follows. When an allocation cut-off number is shown, visas are available only for applicants with DV regional lottery rank numbers BELOW the specified allocation cut-off number:

    Region All DV Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed Separately


    AFRICA 81,200 Except:Nigeria 19,800
    ASIA CURRENT
    EUROPE CURRENT Except:Uzbekistan 19,000
    NORTH AMERICA (BAHAMAS) 3
    OCEANIA 1,600
    SOUTH AMERICA, and the CARIBBEAN CURRENT
    Entitlement to immigrant status in the DV category lasts only through the end of the fiscal (visa) year for which the applicant is selected in the lottery. The year of entitlement for all applicants registered for the DV-2013 program ends as of September 30, 2013. DV visas may not be issued to DV-2013 applicants after that date. Similarly, spouses and children accompanying or following to join DV-2013 principals are only entitled to derivative DV status until September 30, 2013. DV visa availability through the very end of FY-2013 cannot be taken for granted. Numbers could be exhausted prior to September 30.

    C. THE DIVERSITY (DV) IMMIGRANT CATEGORY RANK CUT-OFFS WHICH WILL APPLY IN SEPTEMBER

    For September, immigrant numbers in the DV category are available to qualified DV-2013 applicants chargeable to all regions/eligible countries as follows. When an allocation cut-off number is shown, visas are available only for applicants with DV regional lottery rank numbers BELOW the specified allocation cut-off number:

    Region All DV Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed Separately
    AFRICA CURRENT
    ASIA CURRENT
    EUROPE CURRENT
    NORTH AMERICA (BAHAMAS) CURRENT
    OCEANIA
    CURRENT


    SOUTH AMERICA, and the CARIBBEAN CURRENT
     
  4. raevsky

    raevsky Registered Users (C)

    Results for max open number for DV-13 are ready. Prospects for the corridor for max number invited for interview in DV-14 are clear too.
    AF 97,000 - 116,400. We have seen wins up to 116,xxx, they are within the corridor and have a chance.
    AS 10,700 - 12,800. We have seen wins up to 26,xxx. Unfortunately, at least 51% of those winners will not be invited to the interview (above 12,800).
    EU 32,000 - 38,500. We have seen wins up to 54,000. Unfortunately, at least 29% of those winners will not be invited to the interview (above 38,500).
    NA 2 - 25. Difficult to predict because of high volatility.
    OC 1,640 - 1,970. We have seen wins up to 2,9xx. Unfortunately, at least 32% of those winners will not be invited to the interview (above 1,970).
    SA 1,300 - 1,580. We have seen wins up to 2,xxx. Unfortunately, at least 21% of those winners will not be invited to the interview (above 1,580).
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 10, 2013
  5. Kayend

    Kayend Active Member

    Hi Raevsky,

    How can you just use dv-2013 to predict dv-2014? We don't know how many case # issued for each region in dv-2014 at this point because the case # have holes in it and also number of the dependents for each principle applicant.

    For example, in dv-2013 in Asia region, the max case # is 12,800 (as you mentioned above) and there are 16k+ winners for Asia region in dv-2013. Even without holes, the max case # should be 16,000 and not 12,800. The reason I can think of why the max case number is 12,800 is because the dependent is also counted as selectee. If that is the case, we have no way to predict the outcome of dv-2014 without knowing how many case# issue. how many holes and how many dependent for each case #.
     
  6. raevsky

    raevsky Registered Users (C)

    The number of holes is about the same in dv-13 and dv-14

    No, in dv-13 it is 10700

    Those 16k winners are primary entrants only, not including dependents

    It should, but it is only 10700. That is because 16k include both hidden winners and open winners. Read the basics. Only open winners are notified, hidden winners are not.

    Dependents are not included into 16k. That is only primary winners.

    They are about the same for DV-7, dv-8, dv-9, dv-10, dv-11 and dv-13. Just exclude Bangladesh, they will be the same.
     
  7. Bramb90

    Bramb90 Member

    These statements are incorrect. Are you trying to say that next year not all numbers will become current but instead there will be a cut-off number for the regions you selected?? This has never happened in previous years. All numbers became current by the end of the FY and I am pretty sure next year won't be an exception.
     
  8. Kayend

    Kayend Active Member

    "No, in dv-13 it is 10700"

    If dv-13 is 10700, and 16k+ selectee. Let take half of it are holes, it means only 5K selectee notify and there hidden 11k selectee? If they already hide selectee in dv-13, why they need to increase 20% selectee in dv-2014.
     
  9. raevsky

    raevsky Registered Users (C)

    I disagree

    Correct

    Exactly, this lottery will surely look more like a more remote one.

    Something different from what you describe happened many times in the past and I am pretty sure this will happen next year too.
     
  10. raevsky

    raevsky Registered Users (C)

    psAlbsc ufe

    Only 15% were holes in DV-13, there is no purpose to assume something meaningless.
    They need to increase selectees because EU and SA regions were underfilled since DOS decided not to release hidden winners. Other regions might have had some low underfilling too.
     
  11. Mijoro

    Mijoro Active Member

    OC is actually up to 3,000 this year not high 2k
     
  12. Mijoro

    Mijoro Active Member

    While what you are saying is very disheartening for me personally ( low 2,000's Oceania) I guess we will have to wait and see.
     
  13. raevsky

    raevsky Registered Users (C)

    Not much difference for me between 2999 and 3000.
    Yes, wait and see, that is a good solution for the problem.
     
  14. raevsky

    raevsky Registered Users (C)

    Actually, incorrect. In August and September DV-11 Uzbekistan was Unavailable. And in July DV-11 it had a cutoff 28,200 below regional. I assume your term "recent" includes DV-11. I am wrong if it only referrs to DV-12 and DV-13
     
  15. raevsky

    raevsky Registered Users (C)

    This is up to you. I really do not care.
    A possible solution is not to submit forms to KCC, because submitting forms triggers immigrant intent.
    Another possible solution is to submit forms and pray for a miracle.
    I am sure there are a lot of other solutions as well. Sorry, I am not in the position to invent them.
     
  16. Kayend

    Kayend Active Member

    15% were holes? Are you sure about it? If you check the CEAC web site, we roughly know there are definitely more than 15% of holes in dv-13. Just try from 0-100 case #, it has almost 50 number not found.
     
  17. raevsky

    raevsky Registered Users (C)

    More or less sure.
    CEAC website does not include a number of consulates (quite a lot though, including AOS cases), and it also does not include those who did not submit forms to KCC.
     
  18. Kayend

    Kayend Active Member

    Even it is only 15%. They only notify 9k selectee out of 16k selectee? It's more than 40% hidden selectee. In Asia about 8k visa issued each year and it only notify 9k selectee with the statistic of 50-60% success rate?
     
  19. Kayend

    Kayend Active Member

    If EU and SA are underfilled is the reason it increase the selectee to 20% and your prediction for all regions will have at least 20% not invited for interview except Africa, then why increase in the first place. It doesn't make sense to me.
     
  20. Lucky18

    Lucky18 Registered Users (C)

    My data shows only 50% valid number.
    Can you please tell me which consulates arranging AS case interview are not in the system? As far as I checked within 5000 numbers, Only countries with very small winners like BAHRAIN (15 winners) are not in my 5000 number list.
    Iran is not in the list too, because Iranian need to go to other countries to have their interview.
    AOS is only very small amount. They cannot take up to 35%.

    Your estimation is absolutely WRONG!
    You had wrong estimation of the previous years holes. How come you can even predict the next year's situation?
    I strongly suspect you are just happy to see people give up their application.
     

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